编者按：俄乌冲突以来，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）迅速投入研究与国际传播事务，发表《观察俄乌冲突：不夸张、不讥讽、不怂恿》等多篇数百万阅读量的评论文章，发布《美国对俄罗斯制裁评估与启示》等智库报告被外交部引述，并多次在BBC、《华盛顿邮报》、《外交学人》等国际一流媒体发声发文。4月8日，人大重阳执行院长王文在《南华早报》刊文《2022年世界变得更危险》，提出俄乌冲突使人类史上罕见地出现战争、粮荒、天灾、疫情与通胀五类“共振”现象，世界正处在最危险时刻的前夜。该观点还引用在此前的金砖国家智库研讨会演讲中，引起广泛关注。人大重阳君将文章版面、中英文原文、视频分享如下。

文章在4月8日《南华早报》版面截图

俄乌冲突进入持久战，是世界变得更危险的主要原因。4月1日，乌克兰军队第一次对俄本土发动突袭，意味着俄乌冲突进入到对攻阶段。表面上看，是乌克兰军力与俄罗斯西部、南部军区兵力的一次角力，实质上却是冷战对峙思维在东欧地区延续至今的一次总爆发，也是俄罗斯对美国及北约无休止战略扩张与挤压的一次总反击。

美国与北约除了没有正式成建制地派遣军队外，已动用了几乎所有金融制裁、信息封锁、情报支援、卫星导航、空天技术等混和战的一切手段对俄罗斯进行全面绞杀。

冲突以来的40多天，西方对俄罗斯进行5300多次制裁，是美国过去40年制裁伊朗数量的1.5倍。美国与北约更多的军事援助、金融制裁还在路上。这无疑是火上烧油，刺激俄罗斯更多的反击。尤其是拜登总统讲了让普京下台的话，更是令俄罗斯面临着生存威胁。

普京总统发言人已透露，若国家面临“生存”威胁，俄罗斯有可能使用核武器。普京不可能容忍失败，而拜登也不愿善罢干休。这无疑在逼迫俄罗斯运用核武器。尤其是越来越多的学者预测，第三次世界大战爆发的可能性在提升，甚至还有智库进行核战争爆发的推演。情况正在往地球大灾难的方向亦步亦趋。

战争让乌克兰的农民背井离乡，错过了春季播种，导致乌克兰农产品出口的下降。乌克兰原本是全球重要的农产品出口国之一，小麦、玉米的出口分别占世界的10、15%。有14个国家对乌克兰的小麦进口依赖程度超过10%，比如利比亚43%、孟加拉国28%。若没有足够平价的进口替代，一些发展中国家的城市极可能会陷入严重的粮食饥荒中。

粮食饥荒加上战争导致的能源价格上涨，越来越多的国家生产受限，美国、欧盟，阿根廷、土耳其等等都出现了相当严重的通货膨胀，欧洲、美国通胀率更是创下了40年以来的新高。再继续下去，会不会让马斯克“2022年春季或夏季、不会晚于2023年”的预言一语成谶？

点击播放键观看视频↓

王文在金砖国家智库研讨会演讲视频

战争似乎让人忘记了还有一场病毒大流行。过去两年，已超过600万人死于新冠病毒。尽管西方不少国家已解封，宣布不再隔离新冠患者，但正如世卫组织所说，欧洲明显太乐观了。新冠并没有结束，死亡仍在继续。2022年3月以来，感染与死亡人数出现激增，每天约1000死于新冠病毒。人们相信疫苗，采取与病毒共存的方案，是否能够阻止更多人死亡？抗生素是否能跟上病毒变异的速度？这一切仍是未知数。

最后是气候变化。碳中和，没人想到2021年最火的全球共识，在2022年竟差点被淡忘。战争令合作的中止，世界分裂，直接失去了团结拯救气候灾难的最后机会。冰山融化、海平面上升，小岛消失、天灾频发，世界继续内斗，人类离“后天”似乎越来越近。

网络世界正流行一道非常恐怖的数学题：一战（07/28/1914）、二战（09/01/1939）起始日与俄乌战争的起始日（02/24/2022）每两位数相加的总和，竟都是相同的68。这只是天大的巧合，却在提醒人们拿人类历史上最惨烈的两次世界大战来比照俄乌战争的危险演变。

回顾历史上的那些危险，往往来自于军事战争、粮食饥荒、经济危机、病毒流行和气候灾害等五个方面。2022年春天，人们肯定不会预料到，随着俄乌冲突的爆发，五个方面正遭遇史无前例的共振。世界可能正处在最危险时刻的前夜。

怎么办？或许现在都应该重温富兰克林·罗斯福总统的话：“相对于战争结束来说，我们更希望所有的战争本就没有爆发。”

以下为英文版

The World is on The Most Dangerous Eve

By Wang Wen

文章发布于4月8日《南华早报》首页

The Russian Ukrainian conflict has entered a protracted war, which is the main reason why the world has become more dangerous. On April 1, the Ukrainian army launched its first raid on Russia, which means that the Russian Ukrainian conflict has entered the stage of counter attack.

On the surface, it is a military struggle between the Ukrainian and the western and southern Theaters of Russia. In essence, it is a total outbreak of the Cold War confrontation thinking in Eastern Europe, and it is also a total counterattack by Russia against the endless strategic expansion and extrusion of the US and NATO.

In addition to not formally sending troops, the US and NATO have used almost all means of mixed warfare such as financial sanctions, information blockade, intelligence support, satellite navigation and air and space technology to comprehensively strangle Russia.

In the more than 40 days since the conflict, the West has imposed more than 5300 sanctions on Russia, which is 1.5 times the number of sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran in the past 40 years. More military assistance and financial sanctions from the US and NATO are still on the way. This is undoubtedly adding fuel to the flames, stimulating Russia to fight back more. In particular, President Biden's words of letting Putin out of power made Russia face a threat to its survival.

President Putin's spokesman has revealed that if the country faces a "survival" threat, Russia may use nuclear weapons. Putin cannot tolerate failure, and Biden is unwilling to give up, which undoubtedly forces Russia to use nuclear weapons. More and more scholars estimate the possibility of the outbreak of World War III is increasing, and even deduce the outbreak of nuclear war. The situation is moving in the direction of the earth disaster.

Besides war, more disasters are happening.The war has displaced millions of Ukrainian farmers from their homes and missed spring harvest, resulting in a decline in Ukrainian agricultural exports. Ukraine was originally one of the world's important exporters of agricultural products, with wheat and corn respectively accounting for 10% and 15% of the world's exports. Fourteen countries are more than 25% dependent on Ukrainian wheat imports. There’s Libya at 43% and Bangladesh at 28%. Without adequate affordable import substitutes, cities in some developing countries are likely to fall into severe famine.

Famine and the rise in energy prices caused by the war have limited the production of more and more countries. The US, the EU, Argentina and Turkey. have experienced quite serious inflation, and the inflation rate in Europe and the US has reached a new high in 40 years. If we continue, will Elon Musk's prediction of economic crisis "maybe happening around spring or summer 2022, but no later than 2023" become a prophecy?

Over the past two years, more than 6 million people have died from COVID-19. Many Western countries have unsealed and announced that they will no longer isolate patients with the novel coronavirus. But as an World Health Organization expert said, Europe is too optimistic. COVID-19 is not over, and deaths still occur. Since March 2022, the number of infections and deaths has soared, and about 1,000 die from COVID-19 every day. People believe in the vaccine and the idea of coexisting with the virus. But can it prevent more deaths? Can antibiotics keep up with the speed of virus mutation? All this is still unknown.

No one expected that the hottest global consensus “climate change” in 2021 would be almost forgotten in 2022. The war suspended cooperation and split the world, directly losing the last chance to unite to save the climate disaster. Icebergs melt, sea levels rise, small islands disappear, natural disasters occur frequently, the world continues to fight, and mankind seems to be getting closer and closer to the "day after tomorrow".

There’s a grim mathematical problem popular in cyberspace: the sum of every two digits of the starting dates of World War I (07 / 28 / 1914), World War II (09 / 01 / 1939) and the Russia-Ukraine War (02 / 24 / 2022) are the same. This is just a great coincidence, but it serves as a reminder to compare the dangerous evolution of the Russian-Ukraine war with the two worst world wars in human history.

Looking back, tragedies in history often come from five aspects: war, famine, economic crisis, a pandemic and climate disaster. In spring 2022, people didn’t expect that with the outbreak of the war, the five aspects are experiencing unprecedented resonance. The world may be on the eve of its most dangerous moment.

What should we do? Perhaps it is time to revisit President Franklin Roosevelt's words: "We would prefer that all wars did not break out rather than the end of the war."

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