柯伟林系哈佛大学中国研究教授、哈佛大学中国基金会主席、中国人民大学重阳金融研究院理事，本文刊于5月5日“解读中国”微信公众号。

柯伟林 (William C. Kirby) 是费正清的关门弟子，曾获哈佛大学杰出贡献教授称号，费正清中国研究中心前主任，现任哈佛大学中国基金会主席。

2013年11月，哈佛大学和麻省理工共同开设的中国学课程视频中，包弼德和柯伟林两位教授唱起了用《两只老虎》曲子改编的“中国朝代歌”：“商周秦汉，商周秦汉，隋唐宋，隋唐宋。元明清Republic（注：中华民国），元明清Republic，毛泽东，毛泽东。”此歌一出，走红网络。

近年来，柯伟林还对当下中国政治经济改革撰写了不少评论文章，并提出了一些不同于西方学界普遍观点的论断，引起国际舆论的关注。近日，柯伟林和解读中国工作室合作拍摄了一部微视频。在节目中，柯伟林总结了他对于当代中国的一些观点：

比如，柯伟林认为：中国过去四十年经济大飞跃的原因就是中国共产党执政政策的改变。邓小平相信实验精神，相信结果，思想不保守。他认为，只要给人民机会，人民就可以创造财富。他相信社会主义是终极目标，但是实现这个终极目标的方法有很多。他相信贫穷不是社会主义。

关于习近平主席，柯伟林评价：习近平很明显是一位很有能力的领导人。在成为中国主席前，习近平就胜任过很多不同职位。习近平是有领袖魅力的，在中国政治体制内他也已经证明自己是一位政绩卓越的领导人。

对于中国的未来，柯伟林表示：19世纪是德国人的天下；毫无疑问20世纪末美国人占领了领导地位；到了21世纪就轮到中国了。毫无疑问，中国将领导世界，没有人可以忽略这一点。

微视频内容如下：

 I am a professor, I teach at Harvard University.In graduate school I became the student of John Fairbank, who brought me into the China field and I ended up being effectively his last doctoral student. 

我是一名教授，在哈佛大学教书。在读研究生的时候，我的老师是费正清教授，这位教授让我了解了中国。最后，我成为了费正清老师指导的最后一位博士生。

China had had historically one of the greatest market economies in the world and it is a developed one yet again, since the early 1980’s. So I always tell my students that hundreds of millions of Chinese lifted themselves out of poverty once they were given the chance. Well in many ways what the government did very wisely in the 1980’s, was to experiment with different forms of commerce.  But in the 1980’s what we have seen in the 1980’s is an enormous catch up of where China would have been without the first 30 years, of the policies of the people republic，because Deng Xiaoping believed in experimentation. He believed in results more than ideology. And he believed that the people could be trusted to create wealth. If you’d give them a chance to do so. He believed of course in socialism as the ultimate end, but there are different means to that end. Socialism he believed did not mean you had to be poor. 

从历史上来说，中国曾是世界上最大的市场经济体。从1980年代初开始，中国的市场经济又得以发展。所以，我经常告诉我的学生，数亿中国人马上抓住这个机会，最后实现了脱贫。

从很多方面来说，中国政府在1980年代做出的明智举措就是试验了多种不同的贸易形式。在1980年代，中国经济实现了大飞跃，这一经济大飞跃的原因所在就是过去三十多年里的中国政策。邓小平相信实验精神，相信结果，思想不保守。他认为，只要给人民机会，人民就可以创造财富。他相信社会主义是终极目标，但是实现这个终极目标的方法有很多。他相信贫穷不是社会主义。

You know Sun Yat-sen, he wrote many very influential works. If you go to Sun Yet-sen’s house, in Shanghai in the French concession, you can see his outline of a map of the Chinese railway network. And you can put on top of it and outline of today’s railway network and you would remark how similar these two plans are. But that has changed today and building of roads, building of infrastructure is an enormously positive development for the enrichment of the Chinese people.

孙中山创作了很多意义深远的作品。如果去孙中山在上海法租界的故居，就会看到孙中山描绘的中国铁路网络图。如果将孙中山的设想和如今的铁路网络图比较一下，就会发现两者惊人相似。但是如今的情形大为不同，道路、基础设施的建设都得到了卓有成效的发展，帮助中国人民致富。

You know, a train from Boston to New York takes today about four hours， it’s about 220 miles. The same distance, is the distance between Shanghai and Nanjing and by high speed rail, by Chinese gaotie, it takes one hour and two minutes. That is the future that China has grasped more directly than many other countries. 

如今，波士顿到纽约的火车约需4个小时，距离大约有220英里。上海到南京也是同样的距离，但是中国高铁只需要1小时2分钟。中国直接抓住了这一未来，而很多国家还是在走弯路。

Certainly would be wonderful if in every country people all worked together for the common good and certainly that is the aspiration of president Xi in his vision for the Chinese dream. President Xi is obviously a very powerful leader. He has succeeded in many different jobs before coming to be president of the country. He has currently shown himself to be an extraordinarily effective leader in the Chinese political system. 

如果一个国家里的所有人民都可以为同一个目标而奋斗，那就非常好了。这也是习近平主席所说的中国梦的抱负所在。习近平主席很明显是一位很有能力的领导人。在成为中国主席前，习近平主席就胜任过很多不同职位。习近平主席是有领袖魅力的，在中国政治体制内他也已经证明自己是一位政绩卓越的领导人。

 An old strength and a new strength, no country historically cares more about education than China. Today China is building what in my view will become certainly can become the greatest universities system in the world. I think the future of China is extremely bright, you have particularly the future of the Chinese economy. China also has a world of Chinese outside of China who go abroad, who study abroad, who get education around the world and then in many many cases, the majority come back to China and invest their knowledge, expertise and sometimes capital back in China.

在历史上来看，没有任何一个国家如中国一般重视教育。如今，中国正在创建世界最伟大的大学系统。我觉得中国的未来是光明的，尤其是中国经济的未来。在海外的中国人非常多。人们出国，在国外学习，在世界范围内接受教育，而且在很多情况下大部分人还是会选择回到中国，将自己的知识、专业能力甚至是资本带回中国。

The Germans famously in the 19^th century, the Americans without question by the end of the 20^th century in a leadership position and perhaps China now poised to take on leadership in the 21^st century. 

19世纪是德国人的天下；毫无疑问20世纪末美国人占领了领导地位；到了21世纪就轮到中国了。

I think this realm here today now as the People’s Republic of China has the opportunity once again to be a global leader. I don’t think any one country can be the global leader. China’s rise over last 40 plus years has been in partnership with others. It has been by attracting foreign investment and now it is in part by investing abroad itself. Without foreign trade, without interaction with the rest of the world, we would not see the prosperous China that we see today. So China can lead without question, but I don’t believe it can be ignored. 

我觉得中华人民共和国有机会成长为全球领袖。我从不觉得某个国家可以成为全球领袖。但是在过去40多年中国实现了巨大发展，与其他国家建立了合作关系，一直在吸引着外国投资，而且现在中国自己也在投资海外。如果没有对外贸易，如果不与世界交流互动，中国不会像现在这样富强。所以，毫无疑问，中国将领导世界，没有人可以忽略这一点。

（欢迎关注人大重阳新浪微博：@人大重阳，微信公众号：rdcy2013）