资本项目下加速人民币可兑换是十八大三中全会决定的关键改革建议之一,资本账户开放是中国经济改革的重要任务，也是衡量中国对外开放程度的代表性指标。在经济规模相当庞大的中国实行改革难免面临各种困难，因此研究外国的资本账户自由化经验，汲取他国普遍存在的经验教训，对推进中国资本账户自由化具有重要的意义。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（RDCY）、英国货币金融机构官方论坛（OMFIF）和中国人民大学国际货币研究所（IMI）历时数月共同研究及分析各国经验，并将于2014年2月21日正式发布《中国资本账户自由化——来自外国经验的比较分析》研究报告。在此之前，中英智库双方于2014年2月13日举行“中英智库跨国金融对话”的电话会议，就中国资本账户开放问题提前预热。参会人员包括金融机构研究员、基金经理，经济学家等近50人，以下是会议记录：

 

Accelerating RMB convertibility is one of the key reform proposals in the 18th CPCCC third plenary decision. Capital account liberalisation is one of the most important goals of China’s economic reform process, and is also an important indicator of China’s overall level of openness. In an economy the size of China’s, it is inevitable that reform will encounter much difficulty. For this reason it is necessary to examine the experience of capital account liberalisation abroad and to draw upon the common lessons that these experiences can provide, while pushing forward with liberalisation in China’s capital account. Renmin University of China Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) and the Renmin University of China International Monetary Institute have for the past few months been researching international experiences, and on February 21, 2014 will unveil their report “Capital Account Liberalisation in China: Guidelines from Global Experience”.  Previously on February 13, 2014 the two partners held the “China-England International Think Tank Finance Dialogue” telephone conference, and discussed the topic of China’s capital account liberalisation as a warm up exercise before the unveiling of the report. More than 50 participants including financial institutions, fund managers, economists and others were present. The meeting minutes can be found below.

 

对话时间：2014年2月13日北京时间16:30-17:30

主持人：

戴维•马什   货币金融机构官方论坛（OMFIF）主席

(David Marsh, OMFIF Chairman)

对话嘉宾：

王  文  中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（RDCY）执行副院长

(Wang Wen, Executive Dean of RDCY)

 

加布里埃尔•斯坦 (Gabriel Stein)  货币金融机构官方论坛（OMFIF）首席经济顾问

(Gabriel Stein, OMFIF Chief Economic Adviser)

 

对话记录：

1． David Marsh: Do you see the liberalisation of China’s capital account as necessary for China’s development? If so, why?

戴维•马什：您觉得中国资本账户自由化是中国经济发展的必要条件吗？ 为什么？

Wang Wen: Yeah, sure. The liberalisation of China’s capital account is very important and necessary for China’s development. Since 1978, China began to loosen FDI regulations gradually，which allowed for the establishment of the first foreign invested enterprise. In the 1980s, there are two things that we have to mention. In the early 1980s, the Chinese government created 10 foreign borrowing enterprises, which unified financing from international financial markets, in order to satisfy the demand for imports. Second, in 1985 the government eliminated internal trade settlement pricing, and began to enforce a single exchange rate for the RMB. This was very influential and the de facto starting point of the liberalisation of the RMB capital account. From the beginning although China began to open the capital account very slowly it was always very beneficial to China’s development. In Sum, without the liberalisation of the capital account, the “reform and opening up” policy would not have succeeded.  

王文：当然。中国资本账户自由化对中国经济发展非常重要。自1978年改革开放以来，中国就逐渐放松外商直接投资管制。在1980年代，我必须要提当时的两件事情：一是为满足进口需要，中国政府设立了10家对外借债的企业，开始从国际金融市场融资。二是1985年中国政府取消了贸易内部结算价，实行单一人民币汇率。这实际上启动了人民币资本项目可兑换进程。我提这段历史是想说，30多年前，中国就已经开始了资本账户的自由化进程。但这个进程是非常缓慢、渐进式。总之，没有资本账户的自由化，就没有中国改革开放的最终发展。

Gabriel Stein： Capital account liberalisation is an important process; it is the next necessary step for China, especially if China wants the RMB to become the regional or international reserve currency. This cannot happen without liberalisation. Liberalisation is also good for rebalancing and moving away from financial repression to a greater share of household consumption in GDP. In terms of timing, it is difficult to say, but it definitely needs to be put in place over the next three years, because by 2017 the next leadership will already be selected. Xi and Li have to firmly put the liberalisation process in place before the next leadership transition begins in 2017.

加布里埃尔•斯坦：对中国来说，资本账户自由化是个很重要的过程。中国如果希望人民币成为地区或国际的储备货币，那么资本账户自由化是下一个必要环节；如果没有进行资本账户自由化，人民币成为地区或国际的储备货币就不会发生。资本账户自由化有利于经济的再平衡以及提高家庭消费在GDP中的占比。至于资本账户自由化的时机，我觉得很难说，但必须在接下来三年内进行，因为2017年中国又将迎来新的领导班子换届，在新班子形成之前，本届政府有必要有序地启动资本账户自由化。

2．David Marsh: The past experience of countries such as Sweden and Israel when liberalizing their capital accounts has been explored in this new report. In your opinion, how far has the experience of other countries been taken into account by the Chinese authorities during China’s opening up?

 

戴维•马什：这份报告讨论瑞典和以色列等国家的资本账户自由化的经验。在您看来，中国开放过程中，中国当局在多大程度上考虑其他国家的经验？

 

Wang Wen: China is always good at learning from other countries. Regarding Sweden and Israel, China is sure to study their experiences, but China would not copy any other countries’ experience. Since 2008, a very important lesson for China is that in the process of promoting capital account liberalisation after the financial crisis China has to focus on monetary security and financial security. China is improving its macroeconomic policy and management ability. As you may know, China will acclimate to the rhythm of capital account liberalisation according to its economic development needs in terms of international markets, and in terms of resource allocation. That’s why since 2009, China has launched cross-border trade settlements in RMB.

王文：中国一向善于学习外国的经验。对于瑞典与以色列的经验，中国也一定会研究他们的经验，但不会复制任何一个国家。2008年金融危机以来，中国从资本账户自由化的进程中学到的重要经验在于，要需要注重货币安全与金融安全，提高宏观政策与管理水平。正如你所知道的，中国正在根据国际市场的发展与资源配置的需要，调适资本账户自由化的节奏。这就是为什么2009年中国启动跨境人民币贸易结算的重要原因。

Gabriel Stein：In the report we tried to include a selection of seven other capital account liberalisations. As a formerly socialist economy moving toward advanced economy status, China can learn a lot from Israel, because it underwent a similar process.

 

加布里埃尔•斯坦：在报告中，我们尽量涵盖一些具有代表性的其他国家的经验，比如报告中提到了七个国家的案例。从社会主义计划经济体发展到社会主义市场经济体，中国可以借鉴以色列的经验，因为以色列经历了类似的过程。

3. David Marsh: What do you see as the main concern for China in its capital account liberalisation?

戴维•马什: 您觉得中国资本账户自由化的主要问题有哪些？

Wang Wen: In sum, there are two main concerns. One is the constraints on the capital account and capital flows. During the current international economic restructuring, China has incurred high costs. Second, in China there are a considerable number of people who are fearful about China’s domestic capital account liberalisation and worry that capital account liberalisation might force the country to repeat the mistakes of Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries in the 1990s. It is worth mentioning that the Chinese government is still very careful on the issue of capital account liberalisation.

王文：有两点主要关切。一是账户管制与资本流动的受阻，这使中国在当前国际经济再平衡过程中付出很大的代价。另一方面，目前，中国国内还有相当一部分人对资本账户开放心存担忧，担心中国资本账户开放后，可能会重蹈上世纪90年代泰国等东南亚国家的覆辙。因此，中国非常谨慎，依然寻求渐进式的道路。

Gabriel Stein：The key thread is to move gradually with proper sequencing of the loosening of controls, and to create a sound financial system in place with realistic regulation--e.g. get control over the shadow banking and excess borrowing by local authorities. As mentioned above, I think that Israel is a particularly important example for China to study because it successfully made the transition from socialist, then to a developing, and finally to advanced economy status, without experiencing any crisis. The Israel example shows that with proper planning and deliberation, capital account liberalisation can be accomplished without any crisis.

加布里埃尔•斯坦：资本账户自由化的一个关键特点就是逐步有序地放松管制并建立良好的金融监管体系。比如，中国需要管控好影子银行和地方政府借贷。正如上一个问题中提到以色列的经验可以借鉴，是一个非常重要的研究案例，因为以色列的转型非常成功。从社会主义逐步转为发展中经济体，最后变成发达经济体，以色列没有经历任何危机。以色列的例子表明，恰当的规划和考虑周密的步骤，可以实现资本账户自由化而不经受任何危机。

4．David Marsh: Recently the IMF has issued what can be seen a reappraisal of what it is calling “capital management controls”. Is this reassuring for to China that the IMF is open to “capital management”, and not just full liberalisation? To Professor Stein: What do you think of capital management measures? Is a full float exchange rate regime a necessary condition for capital account liberalisation?

 

戴维•马什： 最近国际货币基金组织重新评价所谓的“资本管理”。国际货币基金组织提倡“资本管理，而不是完全自由化”，这个变化是否让中国更有自信心？斯坦教授，你对“资本管理”有什么看法? 浮动汇率制度是否资本账户自由化的必要条件?

Gabriel Stein：The current orthodoxy is that it is best for currencies to float, but you can combine a fixed exchange rate with the opening up of the capital account, like Britain in the Early 80’s, and ERM in the Eurozone. China is taking its time to avoid any crisis, and also there is political opposition because of the importance exports to the Chinese growth model.

加布里埃尔•斯坦：当前的普遍看法是浮动汇率是最好的汇率制度，但你也可以在开放资本账户过程中同时采用浮动汇率和固定汇率。上世纪80年代初，英国同时采用浮动汇率和固定汇率，今天欧元区的汇率制度也一个很好的例子。中国在资本账户自由化过程中很谨慎，尽量避免发生任何危机，另外也有一些反对采用浮动汇率制度的声音，因为在中国，出口为导向仍是经济增长重要的模式。

5．David Marsh: With the transformation in China’s economic model from an export-based to a domestic consumption-based model, is foreign investment as important as it was previously? The latest figures that show a sharp growth in China exports seem to indicate an unexpected export revival. How permanent is this revival likely to be?  

 

戴维•马什: 中国正从出口导向型经济增长模式转为消费型经济经济增长模式，在转型过程中，外国直接投资是否仍像以前一样重要？最近的数据表明中国的出口大幅度增加，即出口的恢复，这个“恢复”可以持续多久？

Wang Wen: Foreign investment is still as important as before. China exports in January experienced year-on-year growth of 10.6%, higher than the 4.3% in December last year. This is much better than economists expected. Still, the slow speed of liberalisation in the capital account may still incur large costs for China.

There are four significant costs have stood out. Firstly, with the American ‘Manufacturing and Innovation Act,’ a number of multinational companies have begun to shrink their investment in China and have shifted production to the US. Secondly, China is currently in the transition period. The pressures of eliminating pollution and protecting the environment are overwhelming, justifying an adjustment in its stock of assets. Third, international financial securitization and direct financing in international markets are the main channels for capital flows. They have the advantages of simplicity and low cost. Last but not least, China’s high household savings rate signifies superior investment ability. Without alleviating controls over capital accounts, this capital comparative advantage cannot come into full play. Therefore, China will not benefit from the international division of labour.

王文：外资对中国仍然像过去一样重要。目前中国出口业有所恢复，最新的消息是，中国1月份出口同比增长10.6%，增幅高于去年12月份的4.3%，同时也远好于经济学家的预期。资本项目开放问题仍然给中国很大的压力。

这里有四点原因：第一，随着美国“重振制造业”计划的推行，一些跨国公司开始收缩在华投资，将生产转向美国，相应地带走了中国的出口机会。第二，中国正处于经济增长模式转型阶段，消除污染、保护环境的压力非常大，必须进行资产存量调整。第三，第三，国际金融证券化，在市场上直接融资是资本流动的主要方式，具有手续简便、成本低廉的优势。最后一点是，中国居民储蓄率高，不开放资本账户，资本的比较优势就无法发挥，中国也就得不到应有的国际分工利益。

Gabriel Stein：Despite the pickup in exports last month, January and February data is always erratic. What we are faced with as a mathematical issue: household consumption must grow faster than nominal GDP in order to increase its share of GDP. It now stands at 35%-40% of GDP. For this to increase it must grow by about 10% per year, which is very strong indeed, and takes nominal GDP growth to at most 3%-4%. The growth of household consumption must be significantly faster than other parts of the economy, other sectors of the economy must grow slower. In 2014 I predict nominal GDP growth to slow down to approximately 6%-7%, which will be healthy, because rising consumption will prevent the occurrence of much social unrest.  

加布里埃尔•斯坦：尽管上个月的出口统计数据有所好转，但因为上个月是中国的春节，而春节期间，即1月份和2月份的数据往往不是特别可靠。中国目前所面临的是一个数学问题：提高家庭消费在GDP中的比例。那么，家庭消费的增长速度必须超过名义GDP的增长率。现在家庭消费占GDP的比例为35%到40%。如要维持这种占比，家庭消费的增长速度须为10%——这是一个非常快的增长速度，同时维持名义GDP率3%-4%的增长。此外，家庭消费增长必须明显快于其他部门的增长率，或者说其他部门的增长须放缓。2014年，我预测中国名义GDP增长将放缓到6%到7%，但这仍然是健康的情况，因为消费占GDP比例的增加将防止社会动荡发生。

6．David Marsh: Xi Jinping is now Chair of the newly-established ‘Central Leading Group on Comprehensive Deepening of Economic Reform’ and the ‘National Security Committee’, thus has much increased his control over decision-making bodies in Beijing. This boosts the chances of market reforms being enforced by the government, but what does this mean for China’s capital account?

 

戴维•马什: 现在习近平主席担任中国全面深化经济改革领导小组组长以及国家安全委员会主席，因而大大巩固了他对北京决策机构的权力。这举措提高了政府执行市场改革的可能性，但对中国资本账户自由化有什么意义？

Wang Wen: Since the third plenary session, the Chinese reform process has been speeding up. China is holding a firm attitude towards capital account liberalisation. Because the two committees were established it guarantees that a gradual model of liberalisation, one that is compatible with economic development and financial market liberalisation will be put in place. Interest rate liberalisation, exchange rate marketisation and RMB internationalisation have laid a solid foundation for the orderly flows of capital, and full liberalisation of China’s capital account is expected within the next five years.

王文：金融改革的决心是非常坚定的。三中全会以后，中国的改革进程在加快。中国对资本账户自由化的态度是坚定的。两个小组的成立，标志着中国已确立了一套与经济发展、金融市场开放相适应的渐进开放模式。由于利率市场化、汇率市场化以及人民币国际化改革为资本有序流动奠定了坚实的基础，在未来五年内中国资本账户有望全面开放。

7．David Marsh: I would like to look at the international aspect of the capital account liberalisation in China. What is the feeling in China about London and other European cities as the centers for RMB trading? How important do you think it is that the RMB become an international currency, and what will be the factors promoting the competitive edge of European cities，such as London, Frankfurt and Paris for RMB trading and settlement? As far as China and Europe is concerned, the main point of concern is a high level of cooperation between Europe and China; we certainly see London, Paris and Frankfurt as all being able to benefit, and certainly we do not have a preference for one place over another as an organization. The OMFIF view is that they can all collaborate. Germany has more trade with China than France, England and Italy combined, so certainly they have a huge interest in being involved in RMB transactions as well.

戴维•马什：我想谈中国资本账户自由化的国际方面。中国对伦敦和其他欧洲城市作为人民币交易和结算中心有什么建议? 你觉得人民币成为国际货币有多么重要？如果未来欧洲城市想成为人民币交易和结算中心的话，有什么因素可以提高一个城市的竞争优势？就中国和欧洲而言，我们注重欧洲和中国的保持高水平合作。我们一定会看到伦敦、巴黎、和法兰克福都能够从中受益，欧洲各地区都能够一起与中国合作。德国与中国的贸易量超过法国、英国和意大利的贸易量。

 

Wang Wen: This is the result of negotiations between the Chinese central government and London. Since 2012 London is a trading center for the RMB and the city has important significance for the internationalisation of the RMB, as well as the liberalisation of the capital account. London’s contribution will be greater than the previous currency exchange agreements with Russia, Brazil and Southeast Asian countries. Even though compared with the EU the scale of trade there is very small, and Europe is the largest export market for China, it will benefit China and the EU f the center of RMB trading is established in London.

王文：这是中国中央政府和伦敦商讨多次的结果。2012年1月伦敦成为人民币交易中心具有重要意义，对人民币国际化的意义超过了此前中国同一系列国家签订的本币兑换协议。中国过去同俄罗斯、巴西和东南亚国家达成货币交换协议，但他们的规模和贸易都没法同欧盟相比。欧洲是中国最大的出口市场。在欧洲的金融心脏伦敦进行人民币交易，对中欧贸易有很大帮助，对中国资本项目自由化也具有很重要的意义。

Gabriel Stein: Europe is China’s biggest export partner; unfortunately the reverse is not true for many European countries vis-a-vis China. England exports more to Ireland than to the BRICS. Liberalisation of the capital account and increased trade in the RMB are good for Europe and London. Many European countries have a competitive advantage here. I think that London as the premier international financial center has an advantage，has the strongest case, but certainly it is a win-win, not a lose -lose situation in terms of competition. Perhaps some will benefit more than others, but all will win in the end.

加布里埃尔•斯坦：欧洲是中国最大的出口伙伴，中国却不是许多欧洲国家最大的出口目的地。英国对爱尔兰的出口就超过其对金砖五国的出口量。中国资本账户自由化和以人民币结算的贸易增加对于欧洲和伦敦无疑都是利好的消息，许多欧洲国家都争相成为人民离岸结算中心，因为对他们来说，与中国合作的潜在收益非常大。但我个人认为伦敦作为世界国际金融中心具有最大的优势，最具实力。显然，这种合作具有双赢的作用，所有参与竞争的相关方都会从中获利，而不会两败俱伤，只是有的国家会从中获得更多的利益。