自不久前美国债务危机结束以来，许多人都暂时放松了神经。

　　但专家们仍然在考虑应从中吸取什么样的经验教训，为处理明年3月份的又一轮债务上限做好准备。这些经验教训对中国尤其重要，因为中国是美国最大的债权国。

　　尽管中国的银行体系在过去几十年间实现了成功增长，它一直因其管理问题和低效率而备受批评。但中国的各个银行正在全球金融体系中发挥着越来越重要的作用。

　　中国需要建立“防火墙”和“安全网”以维护其金融体系，保护实体经济。在决策过程中，就应该考虑这些措施以便采取必要的改革。

　　措施之一是建立特殊的监督委员会，以监督美国国内可能影响其还债能力的政治危机。监督委员会的主要功能是密切观察美国政治经济决策中的潜在风险，并寻求新的投资渠道，将中国的外汇转移到到更安全、更可靠的地方。

　　措施之二是建立国内“危机指数”，以帮助我们发现金融部门的隐藏风险。

　　危机指数应包括来自各发展中国家（如中国、俄罗斯、印度、南非、印尼、沙特阿拉伯）的综合信息，还应包括一些细节信息，比如汇率、原材料价格、利息比率、社会稳定性、通货膨胀和证券市场。

　　经专家分析，危机指数可以为我们提供有价值的信息，比如哪些投资领域最安全，哪些地方最容易发生危机。

　　金融在各级经济中发挥着越来越关键的作用，在接下来的十年其作用只会变得更重要。

　　如果没有负责任的金融，实体经济不可能顺利发展。

　　同时，金融风险很难处理，而且有增加的可能。它们对实体经济的潜在影响不容忽视。

　　这个设想中的危机指数可以给决策者所需的信息，以规避潜在的金融或经济混乱，避免2008年危机期间出现的情景。我认为美国债务危机最重要的教训是，我们应该尽一切可能实现目标，避免任何待时引爆的潜在风险。（来源：Global Times，作者刘志勤，是中国人民大学重阳金融研究机构的高级研究员，瑞士苏黎世州银行北京代表处前首席代表。）

Crisis index can give information needed to safeguard real economy

      Since the end of the debt crisis in the US not long ago, many people`s nerves have eased for the moment.

      But experts are still considering what lessons should be learned and how the next round of the debt ceiling, to be discussed again in March, should be dealt with. These lessons are particularly acute for China, the world`s largest holder of US debt.

      China`s banking system has been much criticized for its management problem and low efficiency, despite its successful growth over the past decades. But Chinese banks are playing an increasingly critical role in the global financial system.

      China needs to build up fireproof walls and establish safety nets in order to safeguard its financial system and protect the real economy. These measures should be taken into account during the decision-making process in order to allow necessary reforms.

      One measure could be to set up a special supervisory commission to monitor the chances of another domestic political crisis threatening the US ability to service its debt. Its main function would be to closely look at the potential risks within US political and economic decisions, and seek new chances of investment for Chinese foreign exchange to move to safer and more reliable sectors.

      Another measure would be to establish a domestic "crisis index" which could help us discover the hidden risks in financial sectors.

      This crisis index could include composite information from various developing countries, including China, Russia, India, South Africa, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia, and also include details such as currency, raw material prices, interest ratios, social stability, inflation, and the securities market.

      After analysis by experts, this could provide us with valuable information about where investment would be safest and which areas are most vulnerable to potential crisis.

      Financing plays an increasingly critical role at all levels of the economy, and one which will only become more important over the course of the next decade.

      Without the proper performance from responsible financing, it`s impossible for the real economy to develop smoothly.

      At the same time, the risks of financing are very tough to deal with, and potentially increasing. Their potential impact on the real economy should not be ignored.

      A hypothetical crisis index could give decision-makers all the necessary information needed to avoid potential financial or economic chaos, as happened during the crisis of 2008. I think the most important lesson we can draw from the US debt ceiling crisis is that we should do everything possible to achieve our goals, and should strain all our efforts to avoid any invisible risks hidden and waiting for the worst time to detonate.（The author is senior fellow at the Chongyang Institution for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China, and former chief Beijing representative of the Swiss Zuercher Kantonal bank.）