编者按：中国在中东的国家形象常受到西方思维的影响。近期，伊朗资深媒体人诺詹・埃特扎多萨尔塔内（Nozhan Etezadosaltaneh）专访中国人民大学重阳金融研究院院长王文，提了相当多极具挑衅与带有偏见的问题。2025年2月14-17日， 伊朗首家经济通讯社《经济在线》 （Eghtesad Online）、 伊朗新闻人网站khabarban 、 伊朗SMT新闻网站 用波斯语接连发表了此次专访。现将专访中英文翻译如下：

▲2月14日伊朗首家经济通讯社《经济在线》波斯语报道截图

Nozha：中国正处于房地产危机之中，许多房屋空置，该行业处于衰退状态。造成这种情况的原因是什么？你认为解决这个问题的办法是什么？

王文：没有任何一家中国媒体或主流经济学家采用“中国房地产危机”的说法，更确切的说法是，中国房地产市场处在“深度调整期”。中国自1998年全面推行住房商品化改革以来，房地产逐渐成为中国经济增长的最重要支撑，也成为中国城市化、现代化的巨大动力。到2020年，房地产增加值已占到中国GDP比重的8.3%。中国一线城市的房价甚至已经达到纽约、伦敦的标准，许多地方的房地产泡沫化相当严重。这对处在发展中国家的中国而言，显然不是好事。

于是，中国政府进行了多轮的房地产调整。2024年房地产增加值占GDP比重已下落到6.3%。2024年房地产销量总额、大多数城市的房价都下降到2015年水平。在我看来，这是防止中国重蹈各国房地产危机覆辙的健康和良性调整。西方媒体不了解中国房地产，常常用“危机”来形容，实际上是短视的。

2025年，多数机构对中国房地产市场的未来发展持谨慎乐观态度。告诉你一个秘密，我2025年就准备为我父母换一个更大的房子。主要原因有三：一是中国房地产政策持续宽松；二是中国城镇化仍在持续。未来10年，仍有2亿中国人会从农村迁至城镇中居住。三是目前金融环境也在改善，房贷标准相对较低。如果有中国主要城市较好地段的房子，仍是值得投资的。

Nozha：报告显示，中国人已转向购买黄金以防止资本贬值。这对人民币有什么影响？这是政府和中国人民之间信任差距的迹象吗？

王文：我不知道你指的报告是哪一份。我推荐你看看中国黄金协会的最新数据。2024年，中国黄金消费量985.31吨（折合约1000亿美元），同比下降9.58%。其中黄金首饰532.02吨，同比下降24.69%。另一方面是金条及金币消费是373.13吨，同比增长24.54%。

在中国，黄金作为投资属性的增强，并不能从政府与人民之间的关系中找原因，而是主要源于国际局势动荡和冲突加剧。2024年国际金价40次创历史新高，也是黄金避险保值属性凸显所致。目前国际金价约2800美元/盎司。未来10年，国际黄金价格中枢可能在3000美元/盎司-5000美元/盎司区间。不只是在中国，在世界多数国家，黄金投资的欲望都在提升。

▲2月14日，伊朗新闻人网站（khabarban）刊发本文

Nozha：你认为中国在2025年会出现经济动荡吗？2024年，我们看到中国的犯罪率似乎有所上升？

王文：关于中国经济动荡的说法，在西方媒体上至少流传了75年。在过去两三年，最流行的中国经济评价是“见顶”（Peak）。但2024年中国经济增长率是5%，是美国的2倍多，欧盟的3倍多，仍是全球增长最快的主要经济体之一。很明显，西方媒体对中国经济稳定性的预测又错了。

你提到中国犯罪率上升的问题，说明你可能没来过中国。若有机会，我会给你发邀请信，让你来体验一下什么是全世界最安全的国家。2024年，中国刑事案件数量创下21世纪以来最低‌值。中国是世界上最严的控枪国家之一。在美国，每年有超过4万人死于枪击，但在中国，你几乎从未听说过有枪击事件发生。各项数据都在显示，中国是世界上命案发案率最低、刑事犯罪率最低、枪爆案件最少的国家之一。

Nozha：你认为以中国为首的金砖国家在对抗西方经济机构方面有多有效和可能？中国、俄罗斯及其合作伙伴真的能建立一个新的世界秩序，并为当前秩序提供一个严肃的替代方案吗？

王文：在金砖国家任何官方文本中，都没有“对抗西方”的说法，也没有提出过任何要替代西方的方案。金砖国家之间也不是领导者与被领导者的关系，而是平等互利、相互尊重、合作共赢、开放包容的关系。金砖国家的共识是，希望改革当前不公平的国际经济贸易和金融体系，而不是革命式地推翻当前的国际体系。这正是近年来金砖国家成员国越来越多的主要原因。

让我告诉你一些新闻：2023年8月，金砖组织在原有中国、俄罗斯、印度、巴西和南非的基础上，作出扩员决定，沙特、埃及、阿联酋、阿根廷、伊朗、埃塞俄比亚自2024年1月1日起成为正式成员。后来，阿根廷总统米莱表态暂不加入金砖。此后，多国申请加入金砖合作。2025年1月，白俄罗斯、玻利维亚、哈萨克斯坦、泰国、古巴、乌干达、马来西亚和乌兹别克斯坦成为金砖国家伙伴国，印度尼西亚成为正式成员。 

Nozha：各国人民币和本币的汇率在多大程度上会削弱美元？你看到美元贬值或被其他货币取代的前景了吗？

王文：“去美元化”已成为当前国际金融市场上的热门词。相比于20多年前，美元作为国际储备和国际支付的比率都在下降。截至2024年第三季度末，美元在全球外汇储备中的占比降至57.4%，这是30年来的最低水平。近年来，美元武器化以及美国推行长臂管辖的政策，是推动各国去美元化的重要原因。

但不得不说，在可预见的将来，美元作为最重要国际货币的地位仍是不可撼动的。欧元、人民币、英镑、日元的国际化进程仍是相当漫长的。不过，我预测，人民币将在2030年前成为全球第三大货币，仅次于美元、欧元。

Nozha：您如何看待中国2025年的经济前景？中国的经济增长会放缓到无法与美国竞争的地步吗？

王文：在中国，无论是经济学家，还是普通民众，对2025年经济前景都持有审慎乐观的态度。2024年中国GDP增长5%，达到19万亿美元，超过欧盟总和，是日本4倍多，达到美国的66%。2025年中国经济仍会保持5%左右的增长率。

相比于中国经济增长率在2000年代平均9.5%、2010年代平均7%，目前5%的增长率看似下降，但主要是源于总量在增加。中国经济2024年5%的增量，相当于1996年的总量。按照中国的规划，2035年，中国将超过35万亿美元，大概率将超过美国，成为世界第一大经济体。

▲2月17日，伊朗SMT新闻网站（Samat newspaper）刊发本文

Nozha：在中美之间的竞争结束时，你认为谁是赢家？美国这次会像冷战那样获胜吗？

王文：在中国决策设计中，并没有把中美竞争视为是国家发展的战略规划。中国发展不是以战胜美国为目的。事实上，中国发展是以满足国内民众美好生活日益提升的需求为目标。14亿中国人都希望能够过更好的生活、更大的房子、更优的服务。实现这些需求，中国自然就会发展得更好。

过去20年前，我曾先后30多次去美国，曾到过美国东南西北10多个州。从亲历的角度看，美国自然资源、大学教育普遍比中国更优，但是从基础设施建设、城市治安水平、生活便捷程度看，中国远远已经优于美国了。如果未来美国城市生活能变得更便捷、更安全，那么，中国人会非常乐意向美国学习的。

Nozha：特朗普的关税对中国经济有何影响，中国能做些什么来很好地应对特朗普关税政策？

王文：自2018年以来，特朗普发动对中国的贸易战，对中国商品采取高关税的政策，中美贸易关税平均水平一直保持在19%左右。七年来，中国外贸商已适应了美国的高关税政策。更重要的是，美国高关税政策既没有降低中美双边贸易总额，也没有降低中国对美的贸易顺差，这说明特朗普发动的贸易战已经失败了。

2025年2月1日，特朗普2.0宣布再增加对华商品10%的关税。说真的，这件事情在中国除了引起中国外交部、商务部发言人回应外，并没有引起太大的社会反应。这充分反映了中国人对特朗普关税政策的淡定与自信。10%关税的增加相当于150亿美元，这对中国对外贸易总额6万亿美元来说，是非常小的比率。我们相信，中国有许多办法来应对特朗普2.0。最终结果只有一个，那就是特朗普2.0关税政策的再次失败。

Nozha：欧洲人会与特朗普合作与中国作对，危及他们与中国的贸易关系吗？为什么？

王文：目前看来，欧洲人很难与特朗普2.0合作。特朗普2025年2月初已宣布有可能会对欧盟增加关税。在特朗普看来，欧洲一直都占美国的便宜。而基于我过去8年 到访欧洲10多个国家 的亲历看，欧洲精英们并不喜欢特朗普。

当前，国际形势非常复杂，但中欧贸易合作依然延续发展的势头，呈现强大韧性。据中国海关统计，2024年中国与欧盟货物贸易进出口总额为7858亿美元，同比增长0.4%。双方贸易关系是由各自发展的需求决定的。比如，中欧双方货物出口分别支撑欧盟约300万人就业和中国600万人的就业，最典型的是2024年德国大众二分之一、宝马三分之一和奔驰汽车36%的全球销量来自中国市场。

Nozha：伊朗与中国的关系能帮助伊朗的经济吗？除了绕过制裁，中国还能向伊朗提供必要的技术吗？中国愿意这样做吗？

王文：从2010年以来，我曾先后访问伊朗 10次 ，当面见过 内贾德总统 和已故的 莱希总统 。我还写过一本书 《伊朗：一个被妖魔化的国家》 。在我看来，伊朗是世界历史上最伟大的国家之一，但近半个世纪，伊朗经济受到美国制裁的影响非常严重。

中国长期是伊朗最大贸易伙伴。目前，中国与伊朗的贸易额保持在200亿美元左右，但两国贸易潜力至少是500亿美元。中国商品对伊朗经济的发展保持着促进作用。中国人对伊朗长期寻求独立自主而不惜长期对抗美国的精神表示钦佩。但另一方面，我也希望伊朗人能够对中国经济与发展给予更多地了解与理解，尤其是要理解中美关系的复杂性与微妙性。中国希望能够与美国保持长期相互尊重、平等互利、合作共赢的关系，中国将全力捍卫本国的核心利益，但希望尽可能避免对抗与新冷战。

Nozha：为什么尽管欠发达国家或发展中国家因与中国合作而陷入“债务陷阱”，但其他国家仍想与中国合作？你认为伊朗也可能陷入这种“债务陷阱”吗？

王文：“债务陷阱”又是一个西方媒体中炮制出来的伪概念。你的问题本身就证明了这个概念的虚假与拙劣。如果真是“债务陷阱”，那么，为什么会有那么多国家愿意与中国合作呢？愿意与中国合作，恰恰不正是证明合作的好处吗？毕竟，所有国家的领导人和决策层都是聪明的、理性的，中国从来不会派军队强迫他们合作。

事实上，在被西方媒体炒作中国“债务陷阱”最多的斯里兰卡、肯尼亚等国，中方贷款都只占有那些国家外债的10%左右，并不构成其外债的主要部分。更重要的是，中国提供的多数商业贷款远低于国际市场利率，均是双方根据当时国际市场原则和水平共同商定的。我想，中国在伊朗的债务同样是如此。

Nozha：如果伊朗与美国达成协议并实现关系正常化，它能否在经济领域效仿中国模式？伊朗在这方面的道路上有哪些潜力和障碍？

王文：每一个国家都有自己的发展道路，也有自己壮大与崛起的独到经验。中国模式中的不少经验，也是借鉴了西方现代化中的成功经验而来，但最终还是要符合中国自身的国情。

如果真的要让我分享几条能供伊朗参考的中国经验的话，那我希望是以下三条：一是要推行符合自身发展的改革与开放政策。这些政策是否成功的标准，关键是看本国民众生活是否越来越好。二是要大力提升本国的基础设施建设水平。三是要推动融入国际体系，尽可能吸引国际投资、先进技术、管理标准和文化产品。我相信，伊朗在发展道路上一定能够越来越好。

Nozha：你认为中国愿意在“俄乌冲突”中向俄罗斯提供财政和外交支持多久？中国有可能与美国就乌克兰问题达成协议吗？

王文：我在过去三年曾经去过 俄罗斯10次 ，还曾经 去过克里米亚与俄乌冲突的前线城市 。你这个问题的导向与中国目前对“俄乌冲突”的政策现状有很大差距。

首先，中国与俄罗斯、乌克兰在过去三年都保持着不错的关系。中俄双边贸易三年平均增长约20%，而中乌双边贸易增长了30%多。为什么西方媒体忽视后者，没有说中国给乌克兰提供了财政和外交支持呢？

其次，不能把中国没有参与西方对俄制裁，就等同于中国支持俄罗斯。更不能把中国与俄罗斯保持着正当与合法的双边贸易，就等同于中国支持俄罗斯对乌克兰的军事行动。

第三，中国希望俄乌之间能够尽快实现和解。但中国在乌克兰问题上的主张，不会与美国去对标，更不会所谓与美国达成乌克兰的协议。俄罗斯、乌克兰都是主权独立的国家，我们尊重他们最终的主张。

Nozha：有报告显示，中国政府对正在增加的私有资本、外资施加压力。这是什么原因？它将对中国的投资风险产生什么影响？你认为我们会在不久的将来看到外资离开中国吗？

王文：的确有许多西方智库和媒体的报道在误解着中国政府对私有资本和外资的政策。对中国的理解，还是要回归更权威的数据。根据中国官方公布的最新数据，截至2024年9月底，中国实有民营经济主体总量达18086.48万户，占经营主体总量的96.37%，同比增长3.93%，10余年间增长超4倍。

关于外资，我认为，任何一家理性的外国大企业都不会轻易放弃中国这个全球最大的消费市场。2024年，中国新设立外商投资企业59080家，同比增长9.9%中国吸收外资规模长期保持着全球第二位，连续32年居发展中国家首位，占全球FDI总量约12%。当然，在中国投资是有风险的。最大的风险就在于，你不得不面对中国本土企业的强大竞争力。

Nozha：你认为2025年中国经济面临的最大问题和挑战是什么？

王文：2025年中国经济面临的最大问题和挑战仍然是持续的经济复苏与增长。要满足14亿人口日益增长的美好生活需要，并不是一件容易的事情。但是，相比于美国、欧洲的政府更迭出现的不确定性，中国仍然是政策最确定、社会最稳定的主要经济体之一。

我始终相信，也是常识告诉我，只要保持着政治稳定，再实事求是地以解决问题的态度去推进改革与开放，中国就会不断地往前走。中国那么大的国家，肯定存在许多不足，但不足恰恰是前进的动力，解决问题就能推动发展。相信中国的未来，肯定还会越来越好，中国也会为世界的发展做出更多贡献。

英文版

Nozhan Etezadosaltaneh is an Iranian journalist. He has written several articles about the Middle East in Iranian newspapers, including Shargh, Etemaad, Roozegar and Bahar. He is also a PhD student at the Institute for Social and Cultural Studies in Tehran.

Wang Wen, Dean and Professor of Chongyang Institute of Finance, Renmin University of China, and Executive Director of the China-US Center for People to People and Cultural Exchange under China Education Ministry. He is a representative figure in the Chinese think tank community and a consulting expert for multiple Chinese ministries. He is one of the few scholars in the world who has interacted with the current leaders of more than 10 countries, including China President Xi Jinping, Russian President Putin, Indian Prime Minister Modi, and Iranian President Lehi (later deceased). He has also invited more than 30 former political figures, including former US President Carter, to attend events held by his institution.

Nozhan: China is in a real estate crisis, with many houses left empty and the sector in a state of recession. What is the cause of this and what do you think will be the solution to this problem?

Wang Wen: No Chinese media or mainstream economists have adopted the term 'China's real estate crisis'. More precisely, the Chinese real estate market is in a' deep adjustment period '. Since China fully implemented the housing commercialization reform in 1998, real estate has gradually become the most important support for China's economic growth and a huge driving force for urbanization and modernization. By 2020, the added value of real estate had accounted for 8.3% of China's GDP. The housing prices in China's first tier cities have reached the standards of New York and London, and the real estate foam in many places is quite serious. This is clearly not a good thing for China, which is located in a developing country.

So, the Chinese government carried out multiple rounds of real estate adjustments. The proportion of real estate added value to GDP in 2024 has dropped to 6.3%. The total sales volume of real estate in 2024 and the housing prices in most cities have dropped to the level of 2015. In my opinion, this is a healthy and benign adjustment to prevent China from repeating the mistakes of other countries' real estate crises. The Western media's lack of understanding of China's real estate and frequent use of the term "crisis" to describe it is actually short-sighted.

In 2025, most institutions hold a cautiously optimistic attitude towards the future development of the Chinese real estate market. Let me tell you a secret, I am planning to buy a bigger house for my parents in 2025. There are three main reasons: firstly, China's real estate policy remains loose; Secondly, China's urbanization is still ongoing. In the next 10 years, 200 million Chinese will still move from the countryside to live in cities and towns. Thirdly, the current financial environment is also improving, and the housing loan standards are relatively low. If there are houses in good locations in China’s major cities, they are still worth investing in.

Nozhan: Reports indicate that the Chinese have turned to buying gold to prevent the depreciation of their capital. What will be the consequence of this for the yuan? Is this a sign of a trust gap between the government and the Chinese people?

Wang Wen: I don't know which report you're referring to. I recommend you take a look at the latest data from the China Gold Association. In 2024, China's gold consumption reached 985.31 tons (equivalent to approximately 100 billion US dollars), a year-on-year decrease of 9.58%. Among them, 532.02 tons of gold jewelry decreased by 24.69% year-on-year. On the other hand, the consumption of gold bars and coins was 373.13 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.54%.

In China, the enhancement of gold as an investment attribute cannot be attributed to the relationship between the government and the people, but mainly stems from the turbulence and intensified conflicts in the international situation. In 2024, the international gold price reached a historic high of 40 times, highlighting the hedging and preservation properties of gold. At present, the international gold price is about 2800 US dollars per ounce. In the next 10 years, the international gold price center may be in the range of $3000/ounce to $5000/ounce. Not only in China, but also in most countries around the world, the desire to invest in gold is increasing.

Nozhan: Do you think there is a prospect of economic unrest in China in 2025? In 2024, we saw an increase in the crime rate in China?

Wang Wen: The claim about China's economic turmoil has been circulating in Western media for at least 75 years. In the past two to three years, the most popular evaluation of the Chinese economy has been 'Peak'. But in 2024, China's economic growth rate is 5%, more than twice that of the United States and more than three times that of the EU, and it is still one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world. It is obvious that the Western media's prediction of China's economic stability is wrong again.

The issue of rising crime rates in China reflects that you may not have been to China before. If given the opportunity, I will send you an invitation letter to experience what is the safest country in the world. In 2024, the number of criminal cases in China reached its lowest level since the 21st century. China is one of the strictest gun control countries in the world. In the United States, over 40,000 people die from gunshots every year, but in China, you have almost never heard of any shooting incidents happening. All data shows that China is one of the countries with the lowest homicide rate, criminal crime rate, and gun explosion cases in the world.

Nozhan: How effective and possible do you think the BRICS, led by China, is in confronting Western economic institutions? Can China, Russia, and their partners really establish a new world order and offer a serious alternative to the current order?

Wang Wen: There is no mention of "confronting the West" in any official text of the BRICS countries, nor has there been any proposal to replace the West. The relationship between BRICS countries is not one of leaders and followers, but one of equality, mutual benefit, mutual respect, win-win cooperation, and openness and inclusiveness. The consensus among BRICS countries is to reform the current unfair international economic, trade, and financial system, rather than revolutionary overthrow of the current international system. This is precisely the main reason for the increasing number of BRICS member countries in recent years.

Let me tell you some news: In August 2023, the BRICS organization made a decision to expand its membership on the basis of China, Russia, India, Brazil, and South Africa. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Argentina, Iran, and Ethiopia become full members from January 1, 2024. Later, Argentine President Millet stated that he would not join the BRICS for the time being. Subsequently, multiple countries applied to join the BRICS cooperation. In January 2025, Belarus, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Thailand, Cuba, Uganda, Malaysia, and Uzbekistan became BRICS partner countries, with Indonesia becoming an official member.

Nozhan: To what extent can countries’ exchange of the Chinese yuan and local currencies weaken the dollar? Do you see the prospect of weakening the dollar or replacing it with other currencies?

Wang Wen: "De-dollarization" has become a popular term in the current international financial market. Compared to over 20 years ago, the ratio of the US dollar as an international reserve and international payment is declining. As of the end of the third quarter of 2024, the proportion of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to 57.4%, the lowest level in 30 years. In recent years, the weaponization of the US dollar and the US policy of implementing long arm jurisdiction have been important reasons for promoting de dollarization in various countries.

But it must be said that in the foreseeable future, the position of the US dollar as the most important international currency remains unshakable. The internationalization process of Euro, RMB, GBP, and JPY is still quite lengthy. However, I predict that the Chinese yuan will become the third largest currency in the world by 2030, only behind the US dollar and the euro.

Nozhan: How do you see China’s economic prospects in 2025? Will China’s growth slow down so much that it will no longer be able to compete with the United States?

Wang Wen: In China, both economists and ordinary people hold a cautiously optimistic attitude towards the economic outlook for 2025. In 2024, China's GDP grew by 5%, reaching $19 trillion, exceeding the total of the European Union, more than four times that of Japan, and reaching 66% of the United States. By 2025, the Chinese economy is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 5% too.

Compared to China's average economic growth rates of 9.5% in the 2000s and 7% in the 2010s, the current 5% growth rate may seem to be declining, but it is mainly due to an increase in total volume. The 5% increase in China's economy by 2024 is equivalent to the total amount in 1996. According to China's plan, by 2035, China will exceed $35 trillion and is likely to surpass the United States to become the world's largest economy.

Nozhan: At the end of the game and competition between China and the US, who do you consider the winner? Will America win this time, like in the Cold War?

Wang Wen: In China's decision-making design, the competition between China and the United States is not regarded as a strategic plan for national development. China's development is not aimed at defeating the United States. In fact, China's development is aimed at meeting the increasing demand for a better life among the domestic people. 1.4 billion Chinese people all hope to live a better life, a bigger house and better services. If these needs are met, China will naturally develop better.

Over the past 20 years, I have traveled to the United States more than 30 times and have been to over 10 states in the country. From a personal perspective, the natural resources and university education in the United States are generally better than those in China, but in terms of infrastructure construction, urban security level, and convenience of life, China is far superior to the United States. If American urban life can become more convenient and safer in the future, then Chinese people will be very willing to learn from the United States.

Nozhan: What will be the impact of Trump's tariffs on the Chinese economy and what can China do to counter it? Will it be able to counter it? How?

Wang Wen: Since 2018, Trump has launched a trade war against China and implemented high tariffs on Chinese goods. The average level of trade tariffs between China and the United States has remained around 19%. Over the past seven years, Chinese foreign traders have adapted to the high tariff policies of the United States. More importantly, the high tariff policy of the United States has neither reduced the total bilateral trade volume between China and the United States, nor reduced China's trade surplus with the United States, indicating that the trade war launched by Trump has failed.

On February 1, 2025, Trump 2.0 announced an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. To be honest, apart from eliciting responses from spokespersons of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Commerce, this matter has not caused much social reaction in China. This fully reflects the Chinese people's calm and confidence in Trump's tariff policy. A 10% tariff increase is equivalent to $15 billion, which is a very small ratio for China's total foreign trade of $6 trillion. We believe that China has many ways to deal with Trump 2.0. The ultimate result is only one, which is the failure of Trump's 2.0 tariff policy again.

Nozhan: Will the Europeans cooperate with Trump to counter China's economy and jeopardize their trade relations with Beijing? Why?

Wang Wen: Currently, it seems difficult for Europeans to cooperate with Trump 2.0. Trump announced in early February 2025 that he may increase tariffs on the European Union. In Trump's view, Europe has always taken advantage of the United States. Based on my personal experience of visiting more than 10 European countries in the past 8 years, European elites do not like Trump.

At present, the international situation is very complex, but China Europe trade cooperation continues to develop with strong resilience. According to Chinese customs statistics, the total import and export volume of goods between China and the European Union in 2024 was 78.58 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. The trade relationship between the two parties is determined by their respective development needs. For example, the export of goods from both China and Europe supports approximately 3 million jobs in the EU and 6 million jobs in China. The most typical example is that in 2024, half of Volkswagen's global sales, one-third of BMW's, and 36% of Mercedes Benz's global sales come from the Chinese market.

Nozhan: Can Iran's relationship with China help Iran's economy if Tehran's relations with the West do not improve? Beyond bypassing sanctions, is China able to provide Iran with the necessary technologies and is China willing to do so?

Wang Wen: Since 2010, I have visited Iran 10 times and met President Ahmadinejad and the late President Lehi in person. I have also written a book titled 'Iran: A Demonized Country'. In my opinion, Iran is one of the greatest countries in world history, but for nearly half a century, its economy has been severely affected by US sanctions.

China has long been Iran's largest trading partner. At present, the trade volume between China and Iran remains at around 20 billion US dollars, but the trade potential between the two countries is at least 50 billion US dollars. Chinese goods play a promoting role in the development of the Iranian economy. The Chinese people admire Iran's spirit of seeking independence for a long time and refusing to oppose the United States for a long time. On the other hand, I also hope that Iranians can gain more understanding and comprehension of China's economy and development, especially the complexity and subtleties of China-US relations. China hopes to maintain a long-term relationship of mutual respect, equality, mutual benefit, and win-win cooperation with the United States. China will do its utmost to defend its core interests, but hopes to avoid confrontation and a new Cold War as much as possible.

Nozhan: Why, despite the debt trap for underdeveloped or developing countries as a result of cooperation with China, do other countries still want to cooperate with China? Do you think Iran may also fall into this debt trap?

Wang Wen: "Debt trap" is another pseudo concept concocted by Western media. Your question itself proves the falsehood and clumsiness of this concept. If it is really a debt trap, why are so many countries willing to cooperate with China? Isn't willingness to cooperate with China just a proof of the benefits of cooperation? After all, the leaders and decision-makers of all countries are smart and rational, and China has never sent its military to force them to cooperate.

In fact, in Sri Lanka, Kenya and other countries with the most "China debt trap" hyped by western media, Chinese loans only account for about 10% of the foreign debt of those countries, and do not constitute a major part of their foreign debt. More importantly, most of the commercial loans provided by China are much lower than the international market interest rates, which were jointly agreed upon by both parties based on the principles and levels of the international market at that time. I think the same applies to China's debt in Iran.

Nozhan: Can Iran follow the Chinese model in the economic sphere if it reaches an agreement with the US and normalizes relations? What are the potentials and obstacles in Iran's path in this regard?

Wang Wen: Every country has its own development path and unique experience in growing and rising. Many of the experiences in the Chinese model are also borrowed from successful experiences in Western modernization, but ultimately they must be in line with China's own national conditions.

If I really want to share a few Chinese experiences that Iran can refer to, I hope they are the following three: first, to implement reform and opening-up policies that are in line with its own development. The key to the success of these policies depends on whether the lives of the local people are getting better and better. The second is to vigorously improve the level of infrastructure construction in the country. The third is to promote integration into the international system and attract international investment, advanced technology, management standards, and cultural products as much as possible. I believe that Iran will definitely get better and better on its development path.

Nozhan: How long do you think China is willing to provide financial and diplomatic support to Russia in the Ukraine war? Is it possible for China to make a deal with the US over Ukraine?

Wang Wen: I have been to Russia 10 times in the past three years, and I have also been to the front-line cities of Crimea and Russia-Ukraine conflict. There is a significant gap between the direction of your question and China's current policy towards the Ukrainian crisis.

Firstly, China has maintained good relations with Russia and Ukraine over the past three years. The average growth rate of bilateral trade between China and Russia over the past three years is about 20%, while bilateral trade between China and Ukraine has increased by more than 30%. Why do Western media ignore the latter and fail to say that China has provided financial and diplomatic support to Ukraine?

Secondly, China's lack of participation in Western sanctions against Russia cannot be equated with China's support for Russia. Maintaining legitimate and lawful bilateral trade between China and Russia cannot be equated with China supporting Russia's military actions against Ukraine.

Thirdly, China hopes that Russia and Ukraine can achieve reconciliation as soon as possible. But China's stance on the Ukraine issue will not be benchmarked with the United States, let alone reaching an agreement with the United States on Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine are both sovereign and independent countries, and we respect their ultimate claims.

Nozhan: In recent years, reports have shown that Chinese President Xi Jinping's pressure on private and foreign businesses in that country has increased. What is the reason for this and what impact will it have on investment risk in China? Do you think that we will see foreign capital leaving China in the near future?

Wang Wen: Indeed, many Western think tanks and media reports are misinterpreting the Chinese government's policies towards private capital and foreign investment. The understanding of China still needs to return to more authoritative data. According to the latest official data released by China, as of the end of September 2024, the total number of private economic entities in China reached 180.8648 million, accounting for 96.37% of the total number of operating entities, a year-on-year increase of 3.93%, and a growth of more than four times in more than 10 years.

Regarding foreign investment, I believe that any rational foreign large enterprise will not easily give up on China, the world's largest consumer market. In 2024, there are 59080 foreign-invested enterprises established newly in China, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. China's scale of foreign investment absorption has long remained the second largest in the world, ranking first among developing countries for 32 consecutive years and accounting for about 12% of the global FDI total. Of course, investing in China carries risks. The biggest risk is that you have to face the strong competitiveness of Chinese local enterprises.

Nozhan: What do you think will be the biggest problem and challenge for the Chinese economy in 2025?

Wang Wen: The biggest problem and challenge facing the Chinese economy in 2025 is still sustained economic recovery and growth. Meeting the growing request of 1.4 billion people for a better life is not an easy task. However, compared to the uncertainty caused by government changes in the United States and Europe, China remains one of the most stable major economies of policy making.

I have always believed, and it is common sense that tells me, as long as political stability is maintained, and reform and opening up are carried out with a practical and problem-solving attitude, China will continue to move forward. As a large country like China, there are certainly many shortcomings, but these shortcomings are precisely the driving force for progress. Solving problems can promote development. I believe that China's future will definitely get better and better, and China will also make more contributions to the development of the world.

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