编者按：2025年特朗普关税战引发中美爆发真正战争的担忧。为此，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院院长、中美人文交流研究中心执行主任王文4月10日在 澳大利亚《珍珠与刺激》 、13日在 美国《国际政策文摘》 、15日在 美国卡特中心中美印象网 、16日在 中国香港《南华早报》 分别发表四个不同版本的中英评论文章，强调中国对美关税反制是坚决的，但敢战才能止战，正是因为中国的坚决，才能避免中美爆发真正的军事战争。现将中英文版的整合版发布如下：（全文中英文约8600字，预计阅读时间20分钟）

▲本文4月10日刊发在澳大利亚《珍珠与刺激》

文章中文版

中美之间会爆发战争吗？这个问题在2025年4月初突然变得热门起来。主要是因为针对唐纳德·特朗普所谓的“对等关税”政策，中国率先采取了严厉的反制措施。

有人担心，当今世界像是陷入第二次世界大战前的关税战，并有爆发军事冲突的可能。

谁知道下一个与美国开战的国家会是哪个？也门？伊朗？又或者非洲或拉丁美洲的某个国家？但在我看来，肯定不会是中国。

这并非中国胆怯。事实上，坚决捍卫中国的国家利益和尊严，才是中国应对特朗普关税政策的核心策略。中国绝不会在任何议题上向美国屈服。

从特朗普第一任期开始的八年里，中国日益认识到美国的霸权帝国主义。中国始终希望与美国合作，从未希望将美国视为敌人。然而，如果美国想挑起贸易战、关税战、科技战，或者任何战争，中国都准备予以反击。

中国不排除在相互尊重和“双赢”基础上与美国合作。但中国明白，合作并非是求来的，而是通过斗争来实现的。

在这一轮关税战中，中国的反制措施仍然比较克制，仅限于贸易领域。

中国不希望与美国的摩擦升级到失控的地步。一个重要迹象是，除了外交部和商务部的声明外，尚无中国高级官员公开就特朗普的关税政策发表讲话。

中国领导层以韧性和理性保持对美国的尊重，体现出一个世界大国的稳定性和战略远见。

很少有人记得，2025年1月17日，就在特朗普就职典礼前三天，他与中国国家主席习近平通了电话。习近平指出，中美作为两个国情不同的大国，难免存在一些分歧。关键是要尊重彼此核心利益和重大关切，找到妥善解决问题的办法。习近平还强调，中美经济关系的本质是互利共赢，对抗冲突不应成为选择。

事实上，中国不愿与美国对抗，是基于对自身绝对实力的自信，这种自信决定了中国即使对抗也不会失败。

上世纪50年代，中国还没有完全建成海空军。但在朝鲜战争期间，中美对峙了三年，最终美军撤退至三八线。

如今，中国在西太平洋沿岸部署了三艘航空母舰，未来还将部署更多。中国还拥有射程达1.2万公里的东风-31AG洲际弹道导弹、第六代战机以及全球70%以上的无人机产能。美国根本不可能打败中国。

华盛顿对此心知肚明。兰德公司、战略与国际研究中心等智库已发布报告，模拟中美在台湾地区、南海和朝鲜半岛等地的战争场景。结果显示，美国无法取胜，甚至可能遭遇惨败。

▲本文4月13日刊发在美国《国际政策文摘》

中国拥有如此压倒性的实力，为什么不主动与美国开战呢？答案很简单：不可能。

过去40年来，中国从未主动挑衅美国。无论是新疆、西藏、香港、南海、人权、贸易还是科技问题，中美之间的所有摩擦都源于美国对中国的挑衅，而不是中国对美国的挑衅。

应对正在发生的全球最大规模关税战，中国也有能力在不诉诸军事战争的情况下捍卫自身利益。

中国在锂电池、玩具等出口到美国的产品上拥有较强的竞争力。七年前，特朗普第一波关税导致中国商品成本上涨20%，但美国从中国的进口却持续增长。

美国商务部数据显示，2024年1月至2025年1月，美国对华出口减少21.8亿美元（18%），从121亿美元降至99亿美元；美国从中国进口增加58.5亿美元（16.3%），从358亿美元增至416亿美元。

即使中国产品关税升至125%，美国仍然需要从中国购买。相比之下，大豆或原油等美国产品在中国的竞争力有限。中国对美征收报复性关税将迫使其寻找替代市场，导致美国大豆和原油出口商遭受损失。

与此同时，中国工厂也在寻求更多的国际生产基地。这意味着特朗普的关税措施促使一些中国企业走向国际市场，在全球运营。此前，中国企业的国际化程度较低。从这个角度来看，中国有信心应对这场新的关税战。从长远来看，特朗普的行动正在无意中帮助中国企业拓展全球业务。

过去八年，中国积累了丰富的对美经验。应对特朗普的最佳方式是专注于改善中国国内事务。中国持续推进国内改革，扩大对外开放，突破技术封锁，吸引外资，使中国成为全球最佳投资目的地之一。从这些角度来看，在与美国的竞争中，时间站在中国这边。

有趣的是，就在特朗普发动这场全球关税战的同一天， 一幅漫画在中国网络平台上疯传。 漫画中，特朗普身着中国最后一个封建王朝清朝的宫廷服饰，模仿清朝最后一位统治者慈禧太后，向全世界宣战。

1900年，慈禧太后仍然相信清朝的强大，向当时八个最强大的国家宣战。几年后，清朝灭亡了。

对中国网民来说，这幅漫画展现了特朗普和慈禧之间的相似之处。两人似乎都认为自己的国家仍然是最强大的国家，有能力向世界宣战。但实际上，美国正在衰落，尤其是在制造业领域。美国霸权的真正崩溃始于特朗普。

因此，中国无需升级与美国的贸易紧张局势。但如果美国失去理智，对中国发动战争，答案显而易见：后果将远比朝鲜战争严重。

▲本文中文版4月15日刊发在美国卡特中心中美印象网

文章英文版

Will there be a war between China and the US? This question suddenly gained popularity in early April 2025, mainly because, in response to Donald Trump’s so-called “reciprocal tariff” policy, China was the first country to impose strict countermeasures.

Some were worried that the world today is resembling the tariff wars that preceded World War II and that there may be the possibility of military conflict.

Who knows which country will be the next to go to war with the US? Yemen? Iran? Or perhaps a nation in Africa or Latin America? But, in my judgment, it definitely won’t be China.

This is not because China is timid. In fact, resolutely defending China’s national interests and dignity is the core strategy for China’s response to Trump’s tariff policy. China will never yield to the US on any issue.

Over the past eight years, beginning with Trump’s first term, China has increasingly recognised the hegemonic imperialism of the US. China has always hoped for cooperation with the US and never wished to see the US as an enemy. However, if the US wishes to initiate a trade war, tariff war, a tech war or whatever war, China is prepared to retaliate.

China does not rule out co-operation with the US based on mutual respect and “win-win” outcomes. But Beijing understands that co-operation is not simply sought. It is achieved through struggle.

In this round of tariff disputes, China’s countermeasures remain restrained, limited to the realm of trade.

China does not want friction with the US to escalate out of control. An important sign of this is that, aside from statements from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce, no high-ranking Chinese official has publicly spoken out on Trump’s tariffs.

The Chinese leadership maintains respect for the US with resilience and rationality, which reflects the emotional stability and strategic foresight of a global power.

Few people recall that on 17 January 2025, just three days before his inauguration, Trump phoned Chinese President Xi Jinping. Xi pointed out that, as two major countries with different national conditions, there would inevitably be differences between China and the US. The key, he said, is to respect each other’s core interests and major concerns and find a proper solution to the problem. Xi also emphasised that the essence of China-US economic relations is mutual benefit and “win-win” outcomes, and that confrontation and conflict should not be the choice.

In fact, China’s unwillingness to confront the US is based on its confidence in its own absolute strength, which ensures that China would not lose even in confrontation.

▲本文4月16日刊发在香港《南华早报》

In the 1950s, China did not have a fully established navy or air force. During the Korean War, China and the US faced off for three years, with the outcome being the US retreating to the 38th parallel.

Today, China has three aircraft carriers along the western Pacific coast, with more to come in the future. China also possesses Dongfeng-31AG intercontinental ballistic missiles with a range of 12,000 kilometres, sixth-generation aircraft and more than 70% of the world’s drone production capacity. The US has no realistic possibility of defeating China.

Washington is well aware of this. Think-tanks such as the Rand Corporation and Centre for Strategic and International Studies have released reports simulating war scenarios between China and the US over Taiwan, the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula. The results suggest the US cannot win, and may even face a disastrous defeat.

Why doesn’t China take the initiative and go to war with the US when it has such overwhelming strength? The answer is simple: It’s impossible.

Over the past 40 years, China has never actively provoked the US. Whether the issue is Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, the South China Sea, human rights, trade or technology, all friction between China and the US stem from US provocations against China, not the other way around.

In response to the ongoing world’s largest tariff war, China also has the ability to defend its own interests without resorting to military warfare.

China has strong competitiveness in products exported to the US, such as lithium batteries and toys. Seven years ago, Trump’s first wave of tariffs raised the cost of Chinese goods by 20%, but US imports from China continued to grow.

According to data from the US Department of Commerce, between January 2024 and January 2025, exports from the US to China decreased by US$2.18 billion (18%), from US$12.1 billion to US$9.9 billion, while imports from China to the US increased by US$5.85 billion (16.3%), from US$35.8 billion to US$41.6 billion.

In the future, even if tariffs on Chinese products rise to 54%, the US will still need to buy from China. By contrast, American products, such as soybeans or crude oil, have limited competitiveness in China. China’s retaliatory tariffs on the US will force it to find alternative markets, leading to losses for US soybean and crude oil exporters.

At the same time, Chinese factories are also looking for more international production bases. This means Trump’s tariffs have pushed some Chinese companies to expand internationally and operate globally. Previously, Chinese companies had low levels of internationalisation. From this perspective, China is confident in dealing with this new tariff war. Over the long term, Trump’s actions are inadvertently helping Chinese companies to expand their global operations.

Over the past eight years, China has accumulated considerable experience in dealing with the US. The best way to respond to Trump is to focus on improving China’s domestic affairs. Beijing has continuously pushed for domestic reforms, expanded its openness to the outside world, broken through technological blockades and attracted foreign capital, making the country one of the best investment destinations in the world. From these perspectives, time is on China’s side in the competition with the US.

An interesting story is that on the same day Trump launched this global tariff war, a cartoon went viral on Chinese internet platforms. In the cartoon, Trump is depicted wearing the imperial costume of the Qing dynasty, China’s last feudal dynasty, and declaring war on the world in the manner of Empress Dowager Cixi, the last ruler of the Qing Dynasty.

In 1900, Empress Dowager Cixi, still believing in the strength of the Qing Dynasty, declared war on eight of the most powerful countries at the time. A few years later, the Qing Dynasty collapsed.

To Chinese internet users, this cartoon presents a parallel between Trump and Cixi. Both appear to believe their country is still the most powerful and capable of declaring war on the world. In reality, the US is weakening, especially in manufacturing. The true collapse of American hegemony began with Trump.

Thus China does not need to escalate trade tensions with the US. But if the US loses its mind and initiates a war against China, the answer is clear: It would be far worse than the Korean War.

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