2023年1月3日，《南华早报》长篇刊发中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文最新撰文《2022年是去西方化的一年，除中国外，更多国家拒绝美国领衔的世界秩序》。刊发后，即被各国不少媒体转引。该文的中文学术论文版刊发于《前线》期刊2023年第1期，并以《2023年，大国博弈“持久战”继续深化》为题被观察者网转发，在国内引起广泛关注。

西方与非西方之间的政治对等结构日趋强化，正在成为21世纪第3个十年世界政治的重要特征。

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本文在《南华早报》的截图

2022年的全球意义被严重低估。这一年对世界历史的重要性，远远超过发生911事件的2001年、爆发国际金融危机的2008年，或许可与结束冷战的1991年相媲美。如果有一个关键词，那就是“去西方化”。

2022年的“去西方化”，不只是俄罗斯用激进的军事方式试图打破美国霸权主导的国际秩序----事实上，在顶住西方上万次制裁之后，俄罗斯正在加速推进东向政策与欧亚经济联盟的整合----更是非西方国家正呈现前所未有的群体性崛起和独立自主之势头。

在中国，圆满召开党的二十大后，这个崛起大国正在想方设法克服新冠疫情、经济下行的困境，继续朝着社会主义现代化强国的目标扎实前行。但走自主道路推动本国强大的战略，并不只有中国，还有多数非西方国家。

在拉美，左翼领导人卢拉重新赢得巴西总统大选，继墨西哥、阿根廷、秘鲁、智利、洪都拉斯、哥伦比亚等国左翼政府执政之后，占据拉美地区人口80%以上的国家近年来先后“左转”，均主张与美国保持距离，推动拉美独立自主与一体化进程。

在东南亚，东盟国家在2022年先后成功举办东盟峰会、二十国集团（G20）峰会、亚太经济合作组织（APEC）领导人非正式会议，与中美两国保持同等距离，通过区域团结与经济活力不断强化长期追求的“中心地位”。

在中亚，2022年中亚国家不断夯实元首协商机制，签署了《21世纪中亚发展友好睦邻合作条约》等一系列重要文件，与俄罗斯、美欧等国均保持等距离，标志着中亚国家区域一体化合作将迈入新阶段。

在中东，阿拉伯世界22个国家在21世纪前二十年经历了美式反恐战争和“阿拉伯之春”磨难后，开始着眼于独立自主与“一心一意谋发展”的战略转型，比如，沙特和卡塔尔等国“2030愿景”、伊拉克“2035规划”、科威特“2035愿景”、阿曼“2040愿景”、阿联酋“2050愿景”等，都在拉升阿拉伯世界的发展预期。2022年底，卡塔尔世界杯、中国-阿拉伯国家峰会、中国-海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会峰会，更是将阿拉伯世界的全球影响力抬升上了空前的高度。

在非洲，2022年是非盟成立二十周年，“联合自强，自主发展”的发展战略更加坚定；

许多区域强国也都在怀揣大国梦，与西方保持着必要的距离。比如，土耳其就借俄乌冲突纵横捭阖，全面提升本国的全球影响力；印度更是寻找东西方的平衡点，经受住西方拉拢其联合制裁俄罗斯的压力，又与中俄保持相对合作的独立外交政策，更是在2022年底连续接棒联合国安理会轮值主席国、G20轮值主席国，面临全球大国影响力提升的巨大机遇；

俄罗斯媒体转载本文

西方媒体总是勾勒中美竞争的G2场景，其实，真实情况是，世界正呈现着“西方霸权护持”VS“去西方化的独立自主发展”的双轨场景。

西方已没有办法阻止这个趋势。百年来发生的许多国际重大危机，美国都是世界的领导者，除了21世纪第三个10年。新冠疫情危机、乌克兰危机，美国领导力都不能让世界信服，相反，美国自身的抗疫、种族矛盾、经济复苏、政治秩序却面临着前所未有的重大挑战。

欧洲占全球经济比重降至19世纪以来的新低。2022年印度GDP超过英国，印裔当上英国首相，被一些人称为“被殖民者的反击”，如果不是报复的话。

2020年，继此前工业总产值、货物贸易总量成为世界第一后，中国对外直接投资首次位居世界第一，包括美国在内的所有发达国家有史以来首次失去领衔投资全球化的“桂冠”位置。中国吸引外资近年来也频频超过西方各国，正前所未有的呈现出最具有国际资金吸引力的国家优势。可见，“资本”并不总是锁定在西方。

2022年1月，《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）生效。作为历史上首个非欧美国家参与与主导的全球最大自贸区形成，折射了西方对国际自由贸易垄断权的丧失。

政治发展的“独立化”，区域经济的“去西方化”，伴随着全球贸易“去美元化”、科技“去美国化”。2022年二季度，美元在国际储备资产中的份额占比为59.53%，远不及2001年时的72.7%，降至25年来的最低点。在第四次工业革命中，智能科技、量子计算、大数据、5G等，欧美国家也失去了绝对的垄断权。

无论从区域经济的整合到全球影响力的提升，还是从本国独立外交到未来发展的预期，世界历史上从未有过一个时期像21世纪第三个十年初始阶段这样，非西方的世界呈现出如此蓬勃发展的生机与自主成长的活力。

非西方国家的这些新迹象，未必都以对抗、冲突或制衡的方式来应对西方霸权，却都以摆脱西方控制为基点、以本国利益为战略中心、以各国政治觉醒为依托、以国际政治民主化与各国相互尊重为主要诉求而展开。

西方与非西方之间的政治对等结构日趋强化，正在成为21世纪第3个十年世界政治的重要特征。

当然，2023年的世界不会平静，而无论如何，“去西方化”的百年未有之大变局必以不可逆的方式持续演进下去。

以下为英文版

Beyond China, as more nations reject the Opinion US-led order, 2022 will go down as the year of'de-Westernisation'

By Wang Wen

The global significance of 2022 has been grossly underestimated. Its importance to world history far exceeds that of 2001, when the September 11 attacks occurred, and 2008, when the global financial crisis broke out.

Instead, 2022 may be comparable to 1991, when the Cold War ended. If there’s a keyword, it’s “de-Westernisation”.

This is not just about Russia’s radical attempt, through the use of military power, to try to break the US-dominated international order. It is also about the unprecedented rising up of non-Western countries against the established order in search of a more independent stance.

China, after the successful convening of its 20th Communist Party congress and despite the challenges of Covid-19 and an economic downturn, continues to move steadily towards its goal of a becoming a modern socialist power by 2050.

In Brazil, the re-election of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as president means that 80 per cent of Latin America is now under left-wing governments – in recent years, Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Chile, Honduras, Colombia and others have also chosen leaders on the left. They advocate keeping a distance from the United States and promoting greater Latin American independence and integration.

In Southeast Asia, which hosted the Asean, G20 and Apec summit meetings recently, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has carefully kept the same distance from China as from the US, strengthening its neutral position through regional solidarity and economic vitality.

In Central Asia, leaders of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan continued to strengthen the heads-of-state consultation mechanism and signed important documents, including a treaty on “friendship, good neighbourliness and cooperation for the development of Central Asia in the 21st century”. In keeping an equal distance from Russia, the US, Europe and other powers, Central Asia is entering a new stage of national consolidation and regional integration.

In the Middle East, which has experienced the Arab spring and US anti-terrorism warfare, the 22 countries of the Arab world are increasingly focused on their strategic, independent development. The Saudi Vision 2030, Qatar National Vision 2030, New Kuwait Vision 2035, Oman Vision 2040 and United Arab Emirates’ Vision 2050, among others, are long-term development plans that have raised the world’s expectations.

The recent hosting of the Qatar World Cup, the China-Arab States Summit and China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit have also boosted the region’s global prestige and influence.

Regional powers harbouring dreams of greatness are also keeping a measured distance from the West. India has resisted Western pressure to join sanctions against Russia, keeping its policy of cooperation with China and Russia. As president of the Group of 20, better known as G20, in 2023, India has a huge opportunity to enhance its influence.

Western media tends to focus on the G2 scenario of US-China competition – when the world is presenting a dual-track scenario of Western hegemony vs a de-Westernised and more independent development.

The West cannot stop this trend. The US led the world in major crises in the past century but its leadership has become less convincing in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine. This has come as it faced unprecedented domestic challenges in addressing its own Covid-19 epidemic, racial conflict, economic recovery and political order.

Meanwhile, Europe’s share of the global economy continues to fall. And India’s economy has become bigger than that of Britain, its former colonial master, in a year that also saw a man of Indian descent become the British prime minister.

According to China’s official statistics, the country’s outward foreign direct investment in 2020 ranked first in the world for the first time. The country already ranks first in manufacturing output and trade in goods.

In recent years, China has also surpassed many Western countries in attracting foreign capital, showing that capital is hardly always locked in the West. In 2022, the world’s largest free-trade deal, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), entered into force. This is a reflection of the loss of the West’s monopoly on free trade.

This de-Westernisation also extends to a growing de-dollarisation in global trade, as countries move away from the US dollar, and a “de-Americanisation” of technology.

Over the last 20 years, the US dollar’s share of international reserves has fallen steadily from above 70 per cent to below 60 per cent, now hovering around a 25-year low, according to the International Monetary Fund data. With the fourth industrial revolution, European and American countries have also lost their technological edge in smart technology, quantum computing, big data, 5G and more.

Together, the non-Western world is presenting a picture as never seen before. Their response to Western hegemony is not necessarily through confrontation, conflict or an insistence on checks and balances.

Instead, they are simply shaking off Western control by increasingly putting their national interests at the strategic centre. A more democratic form of international politics and mutual respect are their main demands.

A more equal political relationship between the West and the rest is being built, and this will be an important feature of world politics in this third decade of the 21st century. It will not be a mellow world in 2023 but the de-Westernisation movement is irreversible and will only evolve.

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