编者按：近日，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院院长王文在由中国人民外交学会创办的《外交》期刊（Foreign Affairs Journal）153期发表中英文文章指出，人类发展正遇到自二战结束以来的最糟糕境遇，犹如不慎陷进沼泽地，被地区冲突、经济萧条、粮食危机、病毒蔓延、气候变化等“瘴气”严重困扰。王文呼吁，面对2050年，人类需要制定新的全面发展目标。现将全文发布如下：

人类发展正遇到自二战结束以来的最糟糕境遇，犹如不慎陷进沼泽地，被地区冲突、经济萧条、粮食危机、病毒蔓延、气候变化等“瘴气”严重困扰。从指标上看，联合国2030年可持续发展目标（SDGs）的完成路径严重偏离了此前的预想。作为取得稳健发展成就，且是完成SDGs最好的发展中大国，中国经验是值得许多国家借鉴的。面对2050年，人类需要制定新的全面发展目标。

01

全球发展遇到二战以来最糟糕的沼泽地

并不是多数人都意识到，21世纪第三个十年的人类面临的发展挑战比二战结束以来的任何时候都要困难。历史上冲击发展进程的五类主要灾难，即战争、病毒、气候变化、萧条、饥荒，正在罕见地在同一个时间段上发生。人类发展像是陷入沼泽地，动弹不得。

“五难并行”，让人类发展陷入到了动弹不得的沼泽地，甚至越是乱动弹，越有可能更早死亡。这种境况必须引起高度的重视。

第一类灾难是战争。乌克兰危机是二战以来死亡人数最多的一场战争，战争伤亡人数有可能已超过百万，比朝鲜战争、越南战争、阿富汗战争、伊拉克战争的任何一场都要多。这场战争爆发近三年，仍然没有任何停战的迹象，相反，还在扩大化。同时，巴以冲突的激烈程度也在扩大，丝毫看不到和解的迹象。更糟糕的是，根据瑞典乌普萨拉大学收集的数据，2023年冲突数量是自1946年以来最多的：34个国家总共发生59场冲突。奥斯陆国际和平研究所(PRIO)发表的研究报告《冲突趋势：1946年至2023年全球概览》指出，2021、2022和2023年是自冷战结束以来国家参与的武装冲突造成直接伤亡人数最多的三年。这些战争导致许多地区发展的退步，令人揪心。而当前西方主导的权力现实主义国际政治逻辑并无助于遏制这些恶化的趋势。

第二类灾难是病毒。新冠大流行看上去似乎已被很多人忘却，但事实上，病毒危机仍然在延续。2020年爆发的新冠肺炎疫情，至少导致了1000万人的死亡。这是自1918年西班牙大流感以来病毒杀伤力最强的一次，但这一定不是最后一次。人流、物流全球化极大加速了病毒蔓延的速度。2024年夏季，世界卫生组织（WHO）发布了报告，列出30多种可能引发全球公共卫生紧急事件的病毒和细菌。更糟糕的是，当前的病毒变异的速度远远超过抗生素的迭代速度。病毒危机本质上看是“穷人危机”，富人能通过物理隔离、高质医疗来应对病毒感染，而穷人则不得不面临死亡。这是当前人类发展危机遭遇的新变量，也迫切要求各国发展建立起更广泛、更完善的社会保障与医疗保险体系。

第三类灾难是饥荒。联合国框架下的多个组织共同发布的《2024世界粮食安全和营养状况》报告显示，新冠疫情导致全球粮食危机愈加严重。2023年，约有23.3亿人面临中度或重度粮食不安全，尤其是西亚、加勒比和非洲大多数区域饥饿形势呈现加剧趋势。其中，非洲每5人中就有1人面临饥饿。另一份《全球粮食危机报告》显示，2023年59个国家和地区的近2.82亿人面临严重的突发性饥饿问题，比上一年增加了2400万人。事实上，全球农业产能是足以实现人类“零饥饿”目标的，但是区域协调与国际合作不力，导致饥荒越来越严重。这不得不说是人类发展的新悲剧，却也提醒我们需要更加有效、务实地解决在欠发达国家大范围存在的饥荒与贫困。

第四类灾难是气候变化。2006年发布的《斯特恩报告》中讲述“全球气候变化可能会像两次世界大战和美国经济大萧条那样成为未来可预见的最致命、影响最广的威胁”的预言正在兑现。联合国秘书长古特雷斯在2024年已发出“全球求救信号”，敦促各国政府加强气候行动。据欧盟气候监测机构哥白尼气候变化服务局8月初发布的报告称，7月是该机构自1940年有记录以来全球第二热的月份，7月22日和23日全球经历了有记录以来最热的两天。气候变暖正在给人类发展带来更大的威胁，如海平面上升、粮食和水资源短缺、疾病增多、经济损失等。全球平均海平面正在以过去3000年中前所未有的速度上升。很明显，人类发展正在面临着过去从未有过的气候挑战，也在呼吁着各国需要尽快兑现2020年“巴黎气候协定”的低碳发展承诺。

第五类灾难则是经济萧条。“长期停滞”理论在20世纪30年代流行之后再次兴盛。2020-2023年全球经济增长仅为2.3%，是从二战后有GDP记载以来的经济增长最低迷的四年。全球总体通胀率在2022年达到三十年来最高值8.1%，大多数国家名义工资增长却未能跟上消费者价格涨幅，导致底层民众的实际收入损失。2023年以实际固定资本形成总额衡量的全球投资增长率将从2022年3.3%放缓至2%，远低于2011年至2019年平均4.0%的增长水平，其主要原因在于发达经济体投资普遍疲软。高额债务负担和利息支出及财政空间萎缩也将继续严重制约公共部门投资。全球商品贸易总额在2023年出现了5.1%的下降，2024年国际贸易尤其是商品贸易受全球需求疲软、货币紧缩、贸易紧张局势影响将持续承压并延续呈负增长态势。这些糟糕的经济数据令人类发展的前景布上了更多阴霾，也在提醒着各国经济增长仍是发展的优先选项。

很明显，“五难并行”正在严重冲击2015年联合国正式提出在2030年要实现的17个可持续发展目标和169个具体目标（SDGs）。这个伟大目标实现进程遭遇严重的挫折，偏离了此前规划时的预想，也应当促进更多学者反思全球发展以往的实践与经验，而作为受“五难并行”冲击最小、实现SDGs最好的发展中大国，中国近几十年的发展盛况正在打破西方中心主义束缚，应引起各国的深度研究。

02

中国式现代化的五大发展经验

面对全球发展的重大困境，任何一个国家都应该挺身而出，思考本国能够为人类命运的扭转而做出必要的贡献。中国无意成为世界发展方向的“教师爷”，但是在不少西方媒体、智库和政客们近年来不断误解、歪曲与抹黑中国发展状况的背景下，中国有必要更系统化地对外讲述本国现代化发展进程的真实状况，以正视听，进而为遭遇“五难并行”的全球发展提供有益的经验与借鉴。

第一，中国推动全球惠及人口最多的现代化发展进程，为世界提供规模化发展的借鉴。

19世纪英国实现现代化时，人口约500万；20世纪美国实现现代化时，人口约8000万。从工业革命以来的300多年时间，世界进入到现代化发展阶段的国家人口总和约9亿。中国过去45年的改革开放，推动14亿人口集体迈入现代化社会进程，显现出中国式现代化超越西方的规模效应。

巨大人口规模的中国式现代化提供给全球发展的经验是显著的。中国努力推动约10亿劳动力资源转化到工业生产，实现足够的就业机会，进而消除绝对贫困，创造更大规模的消费市场，是当前许多欠发达水平、人口规模较大的国家非常值得效仿的。在这个进程中，通过基础设施投资，尤其是房地产市场的兴盛、公路铁路和通讯设施的完善，推动城镇化的提升变得尤为关键。短短45年，中国城镇人口占比从约17%提升到66%，实现以人为本的城市化发展进程，解决庞大人口背后的医疗、教育、养老、治安、饮食、旅游等多元化需求，这样规模型发展道路不仅对很多国家具有借鉴意义，对遏制当前饥荒与贫困也具有有效的助推作用。

第二，中国推动防止贫富分化的现代化发展进程，为世界提供均衡化发展的借鉴。

当前，中国中等收入群体已超过4亿，迈入中等收入国家群体。中国还建成了世界上规模最大的教育体系、社会保障体系、医疗卫生体系。九年义务教育达到95.7%，基本养老保险覆盖近11亿人，医保参保人数超过13亿人。为缩小区域差距，中国的中央财政持续重点向困难地区和欠发达地区倾斜，优先保障教育、医疗等领域普惠性、基础性、兜底性民生支出，夯实共同富裕的兜底保障。

近年来，外卖、网约车、电商和快递等数字经济新业态的普及，让中低收入人群也能享受便捷的服务，极大推动社会服务的均等化，让国家进步的发展成果尽可能地普惠至每一个民众。中国想要实现的共同富裕，并不是收入的绝对拉平，而是发展成果普及度的最大化，减少绝对自由竞争的消极恶果，这对长期受社会达尔文主义影响的西方国家同样也有借鉴意义。

第三，中国推动物质精神双富足的现代化发展进程，为世界提供协调式发展的借鉴。

物质富足，有时容易产生精神的蜕变。西方一些国家的内部文化战争、信仰迷失、跨性别扭曲等等，都是明显的例证。中国式现代化发展进程，努力做到物质文明与精神文明相互协调、相互促进，通过推广优秀的电影、电视、戏剧、广播剧、图书等文艺作品，丰富民众的精神世界，致力于核心价值观的塑造，培育开拓进取、健康向上的社会主流价值追求。

当前的中国已成为全球第一大电影、图书、电视剧、动漫等文化产业的生产大国，电影票房、银幕数量都超过美国，也是全球注册社会志愿者最多的国家，充分体现了精神文明在中国的真实状况。“人民有信仰，国家有力量，民族有希望”，正在成为中国式现代化物质与精神双富足发展之路的精神图腾，也是中国国家文化软实力提升的思想源泉。越来越多国际民意调查显示，中国国家形象的美誉度正在快速提升，对广大发展中国家推动社会协调式发展也产生正向的精神激励。

第四，中国推动人与自然共生的现代化发展进程，为世界提供和谐式发展的借鉴。

一场人类历史上最大规模的低碳减排行动正在中国发生。秉持“绿水青山就是金山银山”的发展理念，近年来，中国在绿色发展领域实现了多个全球“最大”，是名副其实的全球绿色发展的引领者与开拓者。中国已成为全球最大的绿色金融市场，截至2024年一季度末，本外币绿色贷款余额达33.77万亿元，同比增长35.1%，远高于其他国家。中国还是最大的清洁能源存量与增量市场，2023年中国新增光伏发电装机216.3GW，同比增长147.5%，连续11年位居全球首位；中国风电市场2023年新增装机79.37GW，同比增长59.3%，占全球新增装机总量超过60%。中国同时还是新能源产业出口的领导者，是全球最大的清洁发电组件与原材料出口国，也是全球第一大新能源车出口国。

中国统筹山水林田湖草沙一体化保护和系统治理协同，推进降碳、减污、扩绿、增长，探索一条生态优先、节约集约、绿色低碳的人与自然和谐共生的现代化新路径，秉持“人与自然是生命共同体”的理念，作出了2030年碳达峰、2060年碳中和的重要承诺，力争用全球历史上最短时间实现碳达峰到碳中和，这是超越人类中心主义自然观、先污染后治理的环保观的新发展理念，为共谋全球绿色发展、有效应对气候变化贡献新智慧和新力量。

第五，中国致力于合作共赢非战的现代化发展道路，为世界提供和平式发展的借鉴。

近半个世纪以来，中国是世界上唯一一个没有发动战争、没有参与战争的主要经济体，中国是世界上唯一一个将“坚持和平发展道路”写入宪法的大国，是派遣维和人员最多的联合国安理会常任理事国，也是唯一一个承诺不首先使用核武器、不向无核国家使用核武器的有核国家，更是参与现行国际条约和组织最多的主要大国。饱经列强侵略凌辱的悲惨史与“国霸必衰”的世界历史教训，告诉中国“以和为贵”是现代化发展的重要外部保证。

事实已证明，没有任何一个国家能够真正通过战争、冲突等方式长久地保持积极发展之态。从世界贸易组织、亚太经合组织等多边机制的维护到二十国集团（G20）、金砖国家、上海合作组织等新机制的拓展，再到与超过150个国家签署“一带一路”合作协议，还有近年来缓和沙伊、斡旋俄乌等劝和促谈行动，再加上不断举办中国国际进口博览会、中国国际服务贸易交易会等，中国尽全力地维护世界和平，与他国共享发展机遇，促进国际宏观经济政策协调，营造有利于各国共同发展的国际环境，让战争与冲突频仍的世界多了一块稳定安宁的净土，为全球发展的态势扭转带来了难得的希望。

03

规划人类2050年的全面发展

透过对中国发展经验的分析，很容易为下一步推动全球发展重新瞄定方向与路径。中国已设定了2050年要实现全面建成社会主义现代化强国的伟大目标，这对全球发展而言同样也是一个具有重大意义的年份。在可持续发展目标2030年的预定年份之后，为全球发展确定人与社会全面发展的2050新目标（Comprehensive Development Goals 2050,CDGs 2050），在当下已经变得非常紧迫了。2024年10月19日，中国人民大学主办的 第二届“通州·全球发展论坛” 在北京举行，发布 《人类2050：人与社会全面发展》 研究报告，就是出于这种考量。

“人与社会全面发展”萌生于“可持续发展”理念。“可持续发展”理念是联合国于1987年首次提出，并在《我们共同的未来》报告中将可持续发展定义为“既满足当代人的需求，又不损害后代人满足其需求的能力”。而“人与社会全面发展”囊括可持续发展的长期性，也兼顾实现发展的广泛性，在满足当代人在当下与未来需要的同时，也要满足人的群体组成（如社会、国家）的需求。

“可持续发展”着眼于人类未来，倡导以可持续的方式进行消费和生产，管理地球的自然资源。“人与社会全面发展”则倡导在坚持绿色发展理念的高质量发展道路的同时，还要兼顾国家、社会之间的协调互动与平衡发展。“人与社会全面发展”是“可持续发展”的延续与拓展，不仅仅追求人作为全球发展的主体，还把由人组成的共同体形式（如社会、国家）作为全球发展的平行主体。

换句话说，“人与社会全面发展”不仅要保障人在发展中的各类权利，还需要保障社会、国家在全球体系中的基本需求，比如，全球基础设施在各国之间实现互联互通，以便让更多的人以更低的成本享受到更多的社会与国家资源；数字技术全面融入人们生活之中，去“公司化”“组织化”的生产方式逐渐成为主流，进而推动全民数字时代的到来；清洁能源在各国占比超过化石能源成为主流能源，分布式能源体系使得人人得以享用清洁能源；中心—外围的全球经济体系逐渐裂变，更多的国家带动更多的人民将以平等的姿态融入新型经济全球化体系。

可见，这些“人与社会全面发展”的目标既需要有人作为个体的普遍成长，还需要人作为集体的协调共存；既需要人的共同体形式即社会与国家在器物与技术层面的实力提升，也需要社会与国家在制度与理念上的平等安排。这需要有更精细的设计与规划，更需要伴随着技术发展而实现更多层面的平等与自由。无论如何，走出沼泽地的2050年全球发展的规划之路应当开始了。

以下为文章英文版

Human development is now in the throes of the worst situation since the end of the Second World War, just like falling into a swamp, beset by the difficulties of regional conflicts, economic recession, food crisis, spread of viruses and climate change. The path towards the UN 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has hugely deviated from expectations in terms of targets. China, with steady achievements in development and the best record among developing countries in meeting the SDGs, has experience that can be of help for many countries. There is an urgent call for mankind to set new comprehensive development goals for 2050.

Global Development Bogged Down in the Worst Swamp Since the End of World War II

Not many have realized that the development challenges facing mankind in the third decade of the 21st century are greater than any time since the end of World War II. The five major disasters affecting the development process in human history, namely, war, virus, climate change, recession, and famine, are unprecedentedly taking place all at the same time. Human development has been severely hamstrung, just like being trapped into a swamp.

The five parallel disasters has thrown human development into a marshland, where any move is impossible. Even worse, the more the floundering, the quicker death could come. The situation demands serious attention.

The first category of disasters is war. The Ukraine crisis is a war with the biggest death toll since the Second World War, and casualties might well have exceeded one million, more than any one of the wars on the Korean Peninsula and in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq. This war has been going on for three years, only expanding instead of showing any sign of coming to an end. At the same time, the Palestine-Israel conflict is getting more intense with no sign of reconciliation at all. What’s worse, according to the data collected by the Uppsala University of Sweden, the year 2023 saw more conflicts than any time since 1946, with 59 conflicts in 34 countries. As pointed out in Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946-2023 by the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), the three most violent years in terms of direct casualties from State-based armed conflicts since the end of the Cold War have been 2021, 2022 and 2023. These wars have led to the regression of development in many parts of the world, which is truly a big concern. However, the western-dominated international political logic of power-based realism has not been helpful in preventing things from getting worse.

The second category of disasters is virus. The Covid-19 pandemic seems to have been forgotten by many, but in fact, virus still poses an ongoing crisis. Covid-19, which started in 2020, claimed at least 10 million lives. It is the most fatal virus since the Great Spanish Flu in 1918, but it is definitely not the last. Globalization in the flow of people and goods has hugely accelerated the spread of virus. In the summer of 2024, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a report, listing over 30 viruses and bacteria that may cause global public health emergencies. Even worse, virus mutation now far outpaces antibiotics development. The crisis, in essence, is a crisis for the poor. The rich can cope with virus infection through physical isolation and quality medical care, while the poor have no choice but to face death. That is a new variable in the crises experienced by mankind in its development, thus an urgent call for all countries to develop better and more extensive social security and medical insurance systems.

The third category of disasters is famine. As indicated in the State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2024 jointly issued by multiple organizations under the UN framework, Covid-19 has aggravated the global food crisis. In 2023, around 2.33 billion people were moderately or severely food insecure, especially in most parts of West Asia, the Caribbean and Africa where hunger is on the rise. In Africa, one out of five suffers from hunger. According to the Global Report on Food Crises 2024, nearly 282 million people in 59 countries and territories experienced high levels of acute hunger in 2023 - a worldwide increase of 24 million from the previous year. Actually, the global agriculture production capacity is enough to achieve the goal of “zero hunger”, but failure in regional coordination and international cooperation has made famine worse and worse. One cannot help but admit that this is a new tragedy in human development and also an alert for us to find more effective and practical solutions to the famine and poverty find that exist extensively in under-developed countries.

The fourth category of disasters is climate change. The Stern Review published in 2006 predicted that global climate change may become the most deadly and far-reaching threat, just like the two world wars and the Great Depression in the United States. That prediction is coming true. In 2024, Secretary General Gutierrez of the United Nations issued “a global SOS”, urging all governments to intensify climate actions. According to the report issued in early August by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the EU’s climate watchdog, July 2024 was the second-warmest month globally in its data record since 1940, with July the 22nd and 23rd being the hottest days ever recorded in history. Global warming is posing greater threats to human development, such as rising sea levels, shortage of food and water resources, increasing diseases, and economic losses. The global average sea level is rising at a rate unprecedented in the past 3,000 years. Obviously, human development is confronted with climate challenges unseen in history, pressing all countries to honor the commitments made in the Paris Agreement in 2020 on low carbon development.

The fifth category of disasters is economic recession. The “secular stagnation” theory has reemerged after being popular in the 1930s. Global economic growth from 2020 to 2023 was just 2.3%, the most sluggish four years since GDP was recorded after World War II. Global inflation reached a 30-year record of 8.1% in 2022, while in most countries, nominal salary growth trailed consumer price rises, leading to actual income loss of citizens at the bottom. In 2023, global investment growth rate, measured in actual total fixed capital formation, was expected to slow from 3.3% in 2022 to 2%, much lower than the average 4% between 2011 and 2019. The main reason lies in the general sluggish investment in developed economies. High debt burdens and interest payment and shrinking fiscal space will also continue to seriously constrain public sector investment. Global trade in goods was down by 5.1% in 2023. In 2024, global trade, especially trade in goods, will remain strained and continue the trend of negative growth due to weak global demand, monetary tightening and trade tensions. These bad economic figures have cast more shadow over the prospects of human development, a reminder to all countries that economic growth should still top the development agenda.

Obviously, the five parallel disasters are exerting enormous impacts on the 17 SDGs with 169 specific targets identified by the United Nations in 2015 to be achieved by 2030, severely setting back the process of realizing the grand vision and making it go awry. That should confines prompt more scholars to reflect on the past practices and experiences of global development. China, a big developing country least impacted by the five parallel disasters and with the best performance in meeting the SDGs, is going beyond the confines of Western centralism with its decades-long development achievements, which deserves careful study by all countries.

F ive Aspects of Development Experience of Chinese Modernization

In the face of the dire situation of global development, every country should rise to the occasion and think how one can make its contributions as needed for reversing the fortunes of humankind.

China has no intention to be a “lecturer” about where the world should go, but in view of the persistent misunderstanding, distortion and smearing of China’s development by quite a few western media outlets, think tanks and politicians, it is necessary for China to tell the true story about its modernization process in a more systematic manner, to set the record straight and offer useful experience and lessons for global development, which has been undermined by the ongoing five parallel disasters.

First, China is advancing the modernization and development process that benefits the largest population in the world, offering the world experience for large-scale development.

The United Kingdom had a population of about five million when achieving modernization in the 19th century, while the United States had a population of around 80 million when modernized in the 20th century. Over the past 300-plus years since the start of industrial revolution, the combined population of the countries that have entered the development stage of modernization has totaled 900 million. The 45 years of reform and opening-up in China has taken 1.4 billion people collectively onto the path toward modernization, which reflects a larger scale effect of Chinese modernization than that of the West.

Chinese modernization with a huge population provides significant experience for global development. China has worked hard to engage one billion workforce in industrial production, providing enough employment opportunities. And as a result, it has eradicated absolute poverty and created a larger scale of consumer market. That is something valuable for many underdeveloped countries with large populations to draw upon. In this process, with investment in infrastructure, especially a booming real estate market and improved roads, railways, and communications infrastructure, the advance of urbanization has become particularly crucial. Over a short span of 45 years, the ratio of urbanized population in China rose from about 17% to 66%. This urbanization process is people-centered, as it meets the diverse needs of the huge population for healthcare, education, elderly care, security, food, tourism, and so on. Development on such a large scale offers not only useful experience for many countries but also helps to stem the current challenges of famine and poverty.

Second, China is advancing the modernization and development process that prevents rich-poor gaps, offering the world relevant experience for balanced development.

China, now with a 400 million middle-income population, has become a middle-income country. China has also built the world’s largest systems of education, social security, medical healthcare. The nine-year compulsory education reaches 95.7% of the population, basic pension insurance covers almost 1.1 billion people, and medical insurance has over 1.3 billion subscribers. To narrow the regional gaps, China’s central government fiscal support is consistently tilted towards regions with difficulties in development and underdeveloped regions, with priority given to livelihood expenditures that are inclusive, fundamental and meet basic needs in education, health care, and other areas, to lay a solid foundation for common prosperity.

In recent years, the popularization of take-out, on-line ride hailing, e-commerce, express delivery and other new business forms of the digital economy has enabled the mid-and-low-income people to enjoy convenient services. That is a great advance in the equalization of social services, to see that the benefits of development reach each and every individual as much as possible. The common prosperity that China aims at is not the absolute evening up of incomes, but the maximum popularization of development outcomes and minimum negative consequences from absolute free competition. This can also be of reference for western countries that have long been influenced by social Darwinism.

Third, China is advancing the modernization and development process that features both material and culturalethical abundance, offering the world relevant experience for coordinated development.

Material abundance may sometimes cause cultural decadence, as illustrated by the internal cultural wars, loss of faith and cross-gender distortion in some western countries. Chinese modernization and development seeks to achieve material progress and cultural-ethical progress in a coordinated and mutually reinforcing way, by promoting fine movies, TV programs, theater, radio drama, books, and other artistic and literary works. This will enrich people’s cultural life, help shape core values, and cultivate mainstay social values of breaking new ground and pursuing an uplifting life.

China has now become the world’s largest cultural industry producer of movies, books, TV series, cartoons and animations, with the number of both box offices and screens exceeding the United States and with more registered social volunteers than any other country in the world. That fully shows the true picture of cultural and ethical progress in China. “People have ideals, the country has strength, and the nation has a bright future” has become the totem of the Chinese modernization path towards both material and cultural-ethical prosperity and is also a source of inspiration for increased cultural soft power of China. More and more international polls have demonstrated that the reputation of China’s national image is rising rapidly, providing a positive boost to the developing countries in promoting coordinated social development.

Fourth, China is advancing the modernization and development process that promotes coexistence of humanity and nature, offering the world relevant experience for harmonious development.

The largest ever actions in human history for carbon and emissions reduction are taking place in China. Committed to the principle that “lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets”, China tops the world in multiple areas of green development, and is a leader and pioneer for global green development in reality as well as in name. China has become the world’s largest green finance market. By the end of the first quarter of 2024, local-currency and foreign-currency green credit balance reached 33.77 trillion yuan, up by 35.1% year on year, much higher than any other country. China is also the largest market of clean energy stock and increment. In 2023, new photovoltaic installed capacity was 216.3 gigawatts, up by 147.5% year on year, being the world’s number one for 11 years consecutively. In 2023, China’s wind power market registered 79.37 gigawatts in new installed capacity with a year-on-year increase of 59.3%, taking up 60% of the global total. China is also a leader in new energy industry export, the largest exporter of clean power generation parts and raw materials, and the world’s top exporter of new energy vehicles.

China is working on the integrated protection and systematic management of mountains, waters, forests, farmlands, lakes, grasslands and deserts, and promoting a green growth with less carbon emissions and pollution. It is exploring a new modernization path towards harmony between humanity and nature that prioritizes ecological protection and resources conservation, and pursues green and low-carbon development. Guided by the idea that “humanity and nature are one community of life”, China has made the important commitments of carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, striving to transition from carbon peaking to carbon neutrality faster than ever before in world history. This new development philosophy transcends the human-centrism outlook on nature and the “pollute first, clean up later” outlook on environmental protection, and contributes new wisdom and impetus to the global solutions to green development and climate change.

Fifth, China is advancing the modernization and development process that seeks win-win cooperation instead of war, offering the world relevant experience for peaceful development.

In the past nearly half a century, China has been the only one of the major economies that has neither launched nor engaged in a war, the only one of the major countries that has enshrined commitment to the path of peaceful development in its Constitution, the largest peacekeeper contributor among the permanent members of the UN Security council. It is the only country of the nuclear-weapon countries that has promised not to be the first to use nuclear weapons and not to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear countries, and the one major country that has joined the most existing international treaties and organizations. The tragic history of being bullied and humiliated by foreign powers and the historical lesson that “hegemony preludes decline” have taught China that peace, as a priority, is an important external guarantee for its modernization drive.

What has happened shows that no country can truly maintain a positive development momentum over the long run by way of wars and conflicts. China has worked to uphold the World Trade Organization (WTO), Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and other multilateral mechanisms, and advance the Group of 20 (G20), BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). China has signed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) cooperation agreements with over 150 countries, and facilitated the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran and promoted peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in recent years. China has been organizing the China International Import Expo and the China International Fair for Trade in Services in recent years. These are all part of China’s efforts to maintain world peace, share development opportunities with other countries, promote international macroeconomic policy coordination, and foster an international environment conducive to the common development of all countries. These efforts have helped promote stability and tranquility in a world frequented by wars and conflicts, and bring valuable hope for stemming the undesirable trends in global development.

Plan for Comprehensive Human Development for 2050

The analysis of China’s development experience helps refocus the direction and path of global development. China has formulated the grand goal of building a strong, modernized socialist country in an all-round way by 2050, a year significant also for global development. As we approach 2030 which is set for reaching the SDGs, setting the Comprehensive Development Goals (CDGs) 2050, new goals for global development, should be a matter of urgency now. In alignment with this purpose, on October 19, 2024, the second Tongzhou Global Development Forum in Beijing hosted by the Renmin University of China released the report titled “Humanity 2050: Comprehensive Human and Social Development”.

The “comprehensive human and social development” is inspired by the concept of “sustainable development”. The “sustainable development” concept was first initiated by the UN in 1987, and then defined in the report “Our Common Future” as “the ability to make development sustainable - to ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”. “Comprehensive human and social development” indicates the long-term nature of sustainable development and also addresses the extensive nature of development. Such development seeks to meet both the current and future needs of contemporary people and those of human groups, such as societies and countries.

“Sustainable development” focuses on the future of mankind, advocates sustainable approaches to consumption and production and to the management of natural resources on earth. “Comprehensive human and social development” stands for a path of green and high-quality development, and also the coordinated interaction and balanced development among countries and societies. Under the concept of “comprehensive human and social development”, a continuation and expansion of “sustainable development”, people are the main actors of global development and, in parallel, societies, countries and other forms of communities formed by people are also main actors of global development.

In other words, “comprehensive human and social development” not only protects all kinds of rights of the people in development, but also safeguards the basic needs of societies and countries in the global system. For example, connectivity of infrastructure worldwide for lower-cost access to more social and national resources for more. Digital technology is comprehensively integrated into people’s lives and the de-corporatized and deorganized production methods become dominant, to usher in the era of digitalization for all. Clean energy becomes the main source of energy over fossil fuel in all countries, and the distributive energy system provides clean energy to all. The core and periphery global economic system gradually falls apart, and more countries take more people into a new economic globalization system on an equal footing.

Evidently, the “comprehensive human and social development” goals require both the universal growth of individuals and the coordinated coexistence of people as groups. They call for the enhancement of strength of societies and countries, as forms of human communities, in both physical and technical terms, but also equal arrangement of societies and countries at the institutional and conceptual levels. This requires more meticulous design and planning, and more importantly, equality and freedom at greater levels along with technology progress. No matter what, the journey should well begin to get out of the marshland and plan for global development for 2050.

(欢迎关注人大重阳新浪微博：@人大重阳 ；微信公众号：rdcy2013)