编者按：2024年瓦尔代俱尔部年会于11月4-7日在俄罗斯索契举行，来自50多国官员和智库、大学代表与会。每年俄罗斯总统普京都会出席。 中国人民大学重阳金融研究院王文第8次受邀参会 。在4日晚举行的主题为《战争公式与和平方程式：大变局下乌克兰危机的公平解决方案》的内部研讨会上，王文受邀做了《尽快止战，和平谈判，减少伤亡》主题发言，被与会德国、匈牙利、马其顿等国嘉宾至少6次引述与肯定，也引起广泛讨论。该发言也刊发在瓦尔代俱乐部官网上。现将发言摘要发布如下：

对于多数中国人来说，泽连斯基已经被美国欺骗，终将被抛弃了。无论哈里斯和特朗普谁当选，这个结果都不会改变！

早在2022年3月17日， 我在接受BBC的直播采访时就曾提到 ，如果把乌克兰视为美女，美国就是渣男。渣男鼓励美女去和俄罗斯斗，并承诺保护，结果美女被揍。

现在这个美女已经被彻底毁容，被抛弃是最终结局。美国欧洲都在做表面文章，维持着伪善的正义道德感。

2022年9-10月， 我曾调研了俄罗斯20个城市 ，还在 战场前线克里米亚呆了四天 ，充分感受到俄罗斯的民族韧性与经济潜力。当时，我就写过10多篇文章，预言俄罗斯不可能被西方打败。

事实证明，泽连斯基已经犯了一个极大的战略错误，轻信美国，顽固地想要加入北约，认为这样就能够保证自身安全，并能够抵御俄罗斯先发制人的防御式军事行动！泽连斯基彻底错了，一国自身安全不可能寄托于他国的承诺之上，更不能将自身安危置于悬崖边。

这个道理非常简单，就好像你有一个强壮的邻居。你要做的是，跟他搞好关系，而不是向远方的另一个强壮者去借一把枪，并跟自己邻居交恶。

中国人当然尊重主权、尊重领土完整，同时也相信维护主权需要有自身实力保障。历史不断证明，国际法主权原则固然重要，但首先服从于现实主义权力政治。

基于这样的判断与叙事，进行了近三年的俄乌冲突，恐怕要适可而止！

再这样进行下去，受损更多的是两国人民，尤其是那些被强迫拉上战场当炮灰的乌克兰人民。

当然，世界其他国家的人民也会受到冲击，比如粮食危机，金融动荡等等。

最终受益的是美国军火商和能源供应商！股市指数已显示，在过去的两年多，美国的军工股和能源股涨了将超过一倍！他们明显是吃着乌克兰人的血和肉被养肥了！

现在最需要做的是停战！停战！停战！越早停战，乌克兰的损失越少！过去的两年多，我不断地这样呼吁，现在仍然坚持！

从这个角度看，数周前中国和巴西政府呼吁有关各方遵守局势降温“三原则”，即战场不外溢、战事不升级、各方不拱火，这真是良苦用心。

在这个原则基础上，我建议，承诺保障泽连斯基及其政府所有官员的人身安全，提升他们参与对话谈判的意愿，尽快结束战争。

对话谈判是解决乌克兰危机的唯一可行出路。所谓的和平峰会需要俄乌双方共同认可、各方平等参与。在这方面，中国和巴西都是真正的公正者。

最需要的，是应加大对相关地区人道主义援助，尤其应该加大对妇女儿童等平民的保护。更大规模的人道主义危机应该避免，防止像加沙那样的悲剧在乌克兰重演。

正如雷·达里奥最近报告，全球总体冲突指数达到了1825年以来的高位——除了两次世界大战之外，这已经是最高水平。该指数的攀升反映了乌克兰、加沙冲突造成的高死亡率、难民潮及仍在增加的军费。

早在2022年4月8日，我曾在《南华早报》刊文说 ，俄乌冲突导致人类史上罕见地出现战争、粮荒、天灾、疫情与通胀五类“共振”现象，世界正处在最危险时刻的前夜。

总之，俄乌冲突已经成为自二战以来国际冲击力最大的一场就是军事事件，涉及到当下的世界是继续割裂还是重归团结、是封闭还是开放、是持续危机还是持续发展。更务实的说，这与全球政治经济、能源、货币、金融、贸易、粮食安全以及保护油气管道、海底光缆、电力能源设施、光纤网络、产业链供应链等都密切相关。

到我们应该把世界从最糟糕的状态拯救回来的时刻了，那么，就从推动俄乌两国和平谈判开始。

针对有部分当场学者代表提出各类不能停战的理由，王文第二轮发言摘要：

任何事情都没有比停火重要。对于绝大多数中国人而言，如果看到街上有两个人打架，那么，首先要做的是，劝他们别打了，而不是一边打一边找各种理由。这是中国哲学。

停火不应该有先决条件，应该是最应该做的事情。现在不是比力量、比利益的时候，是比人道主义的时候。再打下去，会有更多生命逝去，没有什么比生命更重要。所以，我的观点是，先停火，再来谈一谈相关的分歧。

针对部分学者提出俄方要像二战那样继续战争直至胜利的观点时，王文第三轮发言摘要：

不能与历史上的战争简单比较。停火是为了减少更多人的伤亡，也是人道主义的考量。要有全球意识和大国责任。再这样打下去，对世界更多国家来说，都是一种伤害。更重要的是，如果再不停火，是会引起第三次世界大战的严重危机，那将是世界的灾难。这需要那些好战者好好考量。

以下为英文版

Stop the War, Peaceful Negotiation, and reduce casualties as soon as possible

Wang Wen

For most Chinese, Zelensky has been cheated by the United States and will eventually be abandoned. No matter who is elected, Harris or Trump, this result will not change!

As early as March 17, 2022, I mentioned in a live interview with BBC that if Ukraine is seen as a beauty, the United States is a scumbag. The scumbag encouraged the beauty to fight against Russia and promised to protect her, but the beauty was beaten up.

Now this beautiful woman has been completely disfigured, and being abandoned is the ultimate outcome. Both the United States and Europe are making superficial appearances, maintaining a hypocritical sense of justice and morality.

In September October 2022, I conducted research in 20 cities in Russia and stayed in Crimea for four days, fully experiencing Russia's national resilience and economic potential. At that time, I had written over 10 articles predicting that Russia could not be defeated by the West.

It has been proven that Zelensky has made a great strategic mistake by trusting the United States and stubbornly wanting to join the NATO, believing that this can ensure his own security and resist Russia's preemptive defensive military actions! Zelensky was completely wrong. A country's own security cannot rely on the commitments of other countries, let alone place its own safety on the edge of a cliff.

This principle is very simple, just like you have a strong neighbor. What you need to do is to build a good relationship with him, instead of borrowing a gun from another strong person in the distance and making enemies with your neighbor.

The Chinese, of course, respect sovereignty and territorial integrity. At the same time, they believe that safeguarding sovereignty requires their own strength. History has repeatedly proven that while the principle of international sovereignty is important, it is first and foremost subject to the power politics of realism.

This kind of judgment and narration, which has been going on for nearly three years in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may be enough!

If this continues, it will be the people of the two countries who suffer more, especially the Ukrainian people who are forced to take to the battlefield as cannon fodder.

Of course, people in other countries around the world will also be impacted, such as food crises, financial turmoil, and so on.

The ultimate beneficiaries are American arms dealers and energy suppliers! The stock market index has shown that in the past two years, the military and energy stocks in the United States have more than doubled in value! They were obviously fattened up by eating Ukrainian blood and meat!

What needs to be done now is a ceasefire! armistice! armistice! The earlier the ceasefire, the less losses Ukraine will suffer! Over the past two years, I have repeatedly called for this and still insist on it!

From this perspective, a few weeks ago, the Chinese and Brazilian governments called on all parties concerned to abide by the "three principles" of cooling down the situation, namely, not spilling out of the battlefield, not escalating the war, and not fanning the flames. This is truly a well intentioned effort.

Based on this principle, I suggest committing to ensuring the personal safety of Zelensky and all officials of his government, increasing their willingness to participate in dialogue and negotiations, and ending the war as soon as possible.

Dialogue and negotiation are the only viable way to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. The so-called peace summit requires mutual recognition and equal participation from both Russia and Ukraine. In this regard, both China and Brazil are true advocates of justice.

What is most needed is to increase humanitarian assistance to relevant areas, especially to enhance the protection of civilians such as women and children. A larger scale humanitarian crisis should be avoided to prevent tragedies like those in Gaza from happening again in Ukraine.

As recently reported by Ray Dalio, the global overall conflict index has reached its highest level since 1825- the highest level except for two world wars. The rise of this index reflects the high mortality rate, refugee influx, and still increasing military spending caused by the conflict in Ukraine and Gaza.

As early as April 8, 2022, I wrote in the South China Morning Post that the Russia-Ukraine conflict led to five rare "resonance" phenomena in human history: war, food shortage, natural disasters, pandemic and inflation. The world is on the eve of the most dangerous moment.

In short, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become one of the most powerful international events since World War II, which involves whether the current world continues to be divided or reunited, whether it is closed or open, whether it is a continuous crisis or a sustainable development.

More pragmatically speaking, this is closely related to global politics, economy, energy, currency, finance, trade, food security, as well as the protection of oil and gas pipelines, submarine cables, power and energy facilities, fiber optic networks, industrial chains, and supply chains.

When it's time for us to save the world from the worst, let's start by pushing for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

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