本文转自10月9日解读中国工作室公众号。

由解读中国工作室与国家创新与发展战略研究会联合策划制作的“读懂中国”TEDx系列演讲，邀请了香港中文大学（深圳）全球与当代中国高等研究院院长郑永年和山东大学政治学与公共管理学院院长贝淡宁担任演讲嘉宾。

两位学者的演讲题目分别是：

郑永年：中国的政治改革停止了吗？

贝淡宁：中国的“贤能政治”为什么符合世情、国情和民情？

今天推出的首期TEDx演讲《中国的政治改革停止了吗？》，演讲者为香港中文大学（深圳）全球与当代中国高等研究院院长郑永年。

以下为演讲内容全文。

Today, I would like to address one of the most important questions, if not the most important question, that is: has China’s political reforms stopped?

今天，我想谈一个最重要的问题。那就是，中国的政治改革停止了吗？

What kind of political reform has China carried out, particularly since President Xi Jinping came into power at the Communist Party’s 18th Party Congress in 2012? I think it’s a very important question for us to answer. Well, of course, it’s not a new question, it’s an old question.

中国正在进行怎样的政治改革？特别是自2012年十八大召开，习近平担任国家主席以来。我认为这对我们而言是个重要的问题。当然，这不是个新的问题，而是个老生常谈的问题。

When I was a Phd student at Princeton University in the early 1990s, in my seminars, our professor would tell us China was a model of economic reform without the political reform. Yes, you have economic reform, of course, but then you don’t have political reform. But now, since the 18th Party Congress, people will say China doesn’t have any kind of reform, both economic reform and political reform.

当我还在普林斯顿大学读博士时，那是上世纪90年代初，在课堂上，教授告诉我们，中国是经济改革的典范，但不是政治改革的典范。是的，中国当然有经济改革，但没有政治改革。但十八大以来，（西方一些）人认为中国没有任何改革，既没有经济改革，也没有政治改革。

Many politicians, even scholars, have criticized or attacked China’s political system, and US politicians and government officials have begun to call China ‘Communist China’ again. It’s Cold War language. But my observation is totally opposite. China has political reform, but China’s political reform is defined by Chinese civilization, Chinese culture, China’s national situation, not defined by Western ideology. So let me tell you what political reform means in China.

美国许多政客，甚至一些学者，批评、攻击中国的政治制度。美国的政客、政府官员又开始把中国称为“共产主义中国”，这是冷战时期的说法。我的看法完全相反，中国正在进行政治改革，但中国的政治改革受到中华文明、中国文化和中国国情的影响，而非西方意识形态中界定的政治改革。让我来给大家讲讲中国的政治改革意味着什么。

中央集权是好是坏？

Centralization, good or bad?

First, centralisation. Well, people don’t like ‘centralisation’ as a term. People sometimes equate centralisation to dictatorship, but I think it’s not right. China is a big country, a big country like China has coastal provinces, which are economically very advanced. China has the west region of China, which, economically, is backwards. Northern China, Southern China. Local diversities are huge. Countries like China, United States or India, the development of different regions, must be coordinated very well.

首先，中央集权。人们不喜欢“中央集权”这个词，人们有时还把中央集权集权等同于独裁体制。但我不这么认为。中国是个大国，中国有沿海城市，这些沿海城市经济发达。中国有西部地区，这些地区经济稍落后。中国从南到北，各地情况大不相同。（我之所以不这么认为是因为）在中国、美国和印度，不同地区的发展都应当得到良好的协调。

Coordination requires centralisation, particularly political centralisation. But don’t forget, under this political centralisation, China has lots of decentralisation. What’s decentralisation? I’m living now in Shenzhen. Forty years ago, Shenzhen was a very small fishing village, but now, Shenzhen has become an international, metropolitan city, more than 20 million people.

要协调，就需要中央集权，特别是政治集权。但不要忘记，在中国的政治集权之下，还有很多分权。什么是分权。我现在生活在深圳，四十年前，深圳还是个非常小的渔村。但现在，深圳市已经成为国际化大都市，人口已经超过2000万。

But remember, this city was built from below, not from top down. Even in this region, you have Shenzhen, you have Dongguan, you have Guangzhou. Guangzhou of course is an older city, but now it’s rejuvenated. But remember, during this same period of time, how many cities in the world are in decline?

但要记住，深圳是人民自发努力成长起来的。这个区域有很多这样的城市，比如深圳、东莞、广州。广州的历史更悠久，但是广州现在是富有活力的地区。但与此同时，多少城市走向衰落？

Why was that? I think it’s related to coordination. In the United States, capital has become very dominant. When capital comes, a city will rise, when capital leaves, a city will decline. But in China, because of the system, the central government has been able to coordinate development with its power. China has experienced the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis, China has experienced the global financial crisis, but in those cities, development was sustainable because of coordination. So I think coordination is very important.

为什么呢？我想这和协作发展有关。在美国，资本掌控一切。资本来了，城市兴起。资本撤走，城市衰落。但在中国的体制内，中央政府能够实现协作发展，通过运用权力。中国经历过1997-1998年的亚洲金融危机，也经历过2008年的全球金融危机。上述城市的发展之所以具有可持续性，就是因为协作发展。因此我认为协作发展很重要。

For example, we are now here in Guangdong Province, Guangdong Province has been asked to support other provinces, like Tibet, like Xinjiang, like Guizhou. So here, people here, rich people, contribute more to help people in the poor areas. This’s very unique.

举例来说，我们现在所在的广东省，广东省就曾经支援其他省份，比如西藏、新疆、贵州。所以，在中国，富裕地区的人支援贫困地区的人。这很独特。

Without coordination, how can China do this? You cannot imagine, for example, in the United States, the federal government asking New York City to help Alabama. No such case. You will not see this in India. I don’t think the Indian central government will ask one state to help another state. So I think this centralisation is very important.

没有协作发展，中国如何能做到这一点？大家可以想象，在美国，联邦政府要求纽约市帮助阿拉巴马州，就不可能实现。在印度这不可能实现，我相信印度中央政府不会要求一个邦去帮助另一个邦。因此，我认为中央集权很重要。

The second aspect of Chinese political reform is what I call checks and balances with Chinese characteristics. Check and balances is a Western term, because in the West we see three-powers, checks and balances, like the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary. But don’t forget, China also has a three-powers system. People don’t recognise it. The system was actually built in the Han Dynasty, it includes decision making power, then executive, then supervision.

中国政治改革的第二个方面，我称为中国特色制衡，制衡是西方的说法，因为在西方有三大权力制衡，立法权、行政权和司法权。但别忘了，中国也有三权制度，大家没有意识到。这一制度建立于汉代，分别是决策权、执行权、监督权。

The good story is after the 18th Party Congress, after President Xi came into power, he tried to reintroduce this three-power system into China.

我认为好的方面是十八大以后，习近平担任国家主席以来，他尝试创造并再次将三权制度引入中国。

So there are checks and balances among the three-powers. Of course, if you ask Chinese bureaucrats in the government, they will complain: our behavior now is very much constrained, because if I do something wrong, the supervision people will come to you to investigate you. So the government has actually become more efficient, and much of more clean now. So this is the three-powers checks and balances. But remember, these three-powers, are coordinated by the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party.

因此，三大权力之间有着制衡。如果你问中国政府官员，他们会抱怨，我们的行为受到很多限制，因为如果我们做错了，监察机构的人会找到你、调查你。因此，政府也变得更加高效、更加廉洁。这就是三权制衡。但是请记住，这三大权力是在中国共产党的领导下得到制衡与协调。

People will say if you are looking into China’s political system from Western ideology, like the perspective of a multiparty system, you will not be able to understand China.

人们会说，如果你去研究中国政治体制，从西方意识形态出发，我指的是从多党制的角度，你可能就无法理解中国。

中国是一党制，但却是开放的一党制？

One party system, but more open, why?

The Chinese Communist Party is the only ruling party in China, but the party is very open. I’m a political scientist, I’ve looked into the history of the European political system, I’ve looked into the American political system. Yes, I like democracy, but we have to look into the details of democracy. I found out that political families are so important for the whole West.

中国共产党是中国唯一的执政党。但这个党派是开放的。我是政治学家，我研究欧洲政治体制的历史和美国政治体制，我喜欢民主，但我们需要探究民主的细节。我发现在整个西方，政治家族都十分重要。

In the US, some political families are so powerful: the Bush family, the Kennedy family, the Clinton family. But in China, at least since the Communist Party came to power, China doesn’t have this kind of tradition. The system is more open. Look at those state presidents, and party secretaries, most of them come from a common family, not a political family.

在美国，一些政治家族权力很大，比如布什家族、肯尼迪家族、克林顿家族。但在中国，至少自中国共产党执政以来，中国没有这种传统。中国的制度更加开放，看看历任国家主席和党的总书记，大多数来自普通家庭，而非政治家族。

President Xi, of course, Xi Jinping is regarded as being from a political family. Because his father was a high-ranking government official, a leader. But even President Xi had to start his career from the village level. So he had work experience at the village level, then county level, then city level. You know that. So he was sent to the Chinese countryside, worked there for a number of years, then community level. He’s experienced the different levels of China’s political hierarchy.

当然，习近平被认为来自政治家族，因为他的父亲是政府高级官员，是一位领导。但习近平主席也从基层开始工作，他拥有镇、县、市级的工作经历，众所周知。因此他也从中国农村开始，在那里工作了几年，后来到了地区级别的地方工作，他有在中国各级政府中工作的经验。

China will never produce someone like Donald Trump. Because in a democracy, it’s very simple: if you get enough votes, you are the leader. But imagine if an inexperienced person came into Zhongnanhai, China’s White House, without any experience. How will he govern the whole of China?

中国永远不会产生特朗普这样的人。因为在民主制度下，当选太简单了，如果你获得足够多选票，你就是领袖。但如果没有任何工作经验的人进入中南海，进入中国的“白宫”，在没有任何经验的情况下，他如何治理整个国家？

So that’s China’s meritocracy, it’s open. China’s political system is open to all social classes. So that’s very important. Yes, one party, but an open one party system.

这就是中国所说的贤能政治，是开放的。中国的政治体系向社会许多阶层开放，这非常重要。中国是一党制，但它是开放的一党制。

You go to vote once every four years or five years, then you stop participating. But in China, political participation is daily. If you regard China as a dictatorship, then, of course, you will not be able to understand China.

（在其他国家）你需要每四或五年参加一次投票，然后你就停止了政治参与。但在中国，参政是日常进行的。如果人们认为中国是独裁制度，那就无法了解中国。

This May in 2020, China passed the most important legislation, what China calls the Civil Code. It consists of 1,300 articles. But this legislation was debated, discussed for so many years. If China is a dictatorship, I think the central leadership would pass the law without discussion, without the debate, without all kinds of controversies.

2020年五月中国通过了一部重要的法律，中国称之为《民法典》，它包括1300多条法律。但是，这一立法经过了多年的争论、讨论。如果中国是独裁体制，我想中央领导就会（直接）制定法律，不经过讨论、探讨，不经过任何争论。

That means leaders have to listen to people here. I think Chinese leaders care about public opinion more than in democracy. You have to listen to all kinds of social opinions, you have to collect all kinds of social opinion to make your policies acceptable to the whole society.

这说明领导必须听取民意，我认为中国领导人比民主国家的领导人更在意民意，需要听取各种民意，收集各个渠道的民意，让制定的政策被整个社会接受。

So China, I think, if you look at the past four decades, the system in the eyes of the West is still a dictatorship.

如果研究中国共产党在过去四十年的制度，我想西方仍会把中国称为独裁国家。

中国特色民主制度带来了哪些改变？

What are the improvements brought about by Chinese democracy system?

But I would say it’s really what China calls democracy with Chinese characteristics. It’s a different kind of democracy, but look at the effectiveness of this system.

但我想说，这是中国所说的，中国特色的民主，是另一种民主。再看一下这一制度带来的效果。

When I entered Beijing University in 1981, China’s per capita GDP was less than 300 US dollars, I was born in the countryside. We did not have enough food or clothes because I was born in the countryside. But in four decades, China has become the second largest economy, per capita GDP now is over 10 thousand US dollars.

1981年我进入北京大学时，中国的人均GDP不足300美元。因为我出生在农村，我经历过缺吃少穿的日子。但四十年后，中国现在是世界上第二大经济体，人均GDP超过一万美元。

And, in the four decades, China got 800 million people out of poverty. Of course, it was a miracle in world economic history. But in the past eight years, after President Xi came into power, China was able to reduce poverty for one hundred million people in eight years. It was a miracle in the world history.

四十年里，中国使接近8亿人摆脱贫困。这是世界经济史上的奇迹。在过去8年里，习近平担任国家主席以来，中国得以消除贫困，帮助一亿人在8年内摆脱绝对贫困，这是世界史上的奇迹。

For the next stage, just look at the Party Congress, the first plenum, they issued a document for China’s next stage of development, 2035. They decided there to make China’s middle class bigger and bigger. I think it’s very important for the middle class, middle classes is everything.

但在下个阶段，我们要看党的大会，一中全会发布了关于中国下个阶段直到2035年的发展文件，目标是让中国的中等收入群体越来越大。我认为这对于中等收入群体来说是很重要的，中等收入群体意味着一切。

Why is the United States now getting into trouble? Why are those opposition parties, partisan politics, so overwhelming? Because of the shrinking of middle class. From 1945 to 1988, the whole West, the United States and most European states, their middle class reached seventy percent. But now, since the 80s, the world had experienced what Harvard professor Dani Rodrik called hyper-globalization. The US of course benefited from this wave of globalization, but its middle class is shrinking. Now today’s US middle class is less than fifty percent, so that’s why US society has become so divided.

为什么美国会陷入麻烦中？为什么反对党、党派政治愈演愈烈？因为中等收入群体在缩小。从1945年到1988年，整个西方，美国和欧洲国家的中等收入群体达到70%，但自80年代以来，世界经历了哈佛学者丹尼·罗德里克所说的“超级全球化”，美国当然从这波全球化中获得了收益，但它的中等收入群体在缩减。如今，美国中等收入群体不足50%，因此美国社会才会如此分裂。

Look at Joe Biden and Donald Trump, they were almost half and half if we calculate the votes they got. So, very, very divided. This because the middle class is shrinking.

看下拜登和特朗普，他们不相上下，最起码在选票数量上是这样的。为什么美国社会如此分裂，因为中等收入群体在减少。

When we talk about Chinese economic reform or social progress, remember institution building has been the most important part of Chinese political reform. Now at this stage, China’s institution building is comparable to the Han Dynasty. The Qin Dynasty was China’s first dynasty, but the Qin Dynasty was very short lived, because there was no institution building.

当我们探讨中国的经济改革、社会进步时，要记住制度建设是中国政治改革最重要的部分。目前中国所处的阶段中，中国的制度建设有如汉代。秦朝是中国第一个朝代，但秦朝是一个短暂的朝代，因为它没有制度建设。

Then in the Han Dynasty, the Han Dynasty engaged with institution building. The institutions the Han Dynasty built lasted for more than 2000 years. China again, at this stage, is engaged in lots of institution building.

随后是汉代，汉代开始进行制度建设。汉代的制度建设被沿用了两千多年。中国现阶段再次进行许多制度建设。

为何中国共产党

要关注2035年，甚至2050年？

Why does the Communist Party of China eye on 2035, even 2050?

I think it’s a good sign the Communist Party is a missionary party. The party rules the country, not based on votes calculation, based on its mission. So that’s why China has five year plans.

我认为，目前制度建设的好的方面是，中国共产党是有使命感的政党。中国共产党在治理国家时，关注的不是计算选票，而是关注政党的使命，因此中国制定了五年规划。

No Party is talking about 2035, no Party is talking about 2050. Only a few parties, like the Chinese Communist Party, like Singapore’s People’s Action Party, where I worked for more than twenty years. So those parties are very missionary, they govern the country by realising the missions they set up.

没有哪个政党关注2035年，没有哪个政党关注2050年。只有少数政党做到了，比如中国共产党，比如新加坡的人民行动党，我在新加坡工作了二十多年。这些政党具有使命感，它们在治理国家时，心怀使命。

But how to set out their mission? I think they learn from different countries, China was in a learning state for the past four decades. China has learned from big countries like the United States and the European Union, China also learned for small states like Singapore, so the system is really a combination of the best practices from different corners of the world.

但它们是如何确定使命的？通过向不同的国家学习。在过去四十年中，中国是个学习型国家，中国向美国、欧盟等大国学习，中国也向新加坡这样的小国学习。因此中国的制度中融合了全球各国的好做法。

So the West, of course you can criticise China, but I hope the West will not ignore the Chinese political system because this system clearly makes China stronger, enables China to continuously rise. But now the US is only criticising China, attacking China, but that will not help the United States. I think China has learned from the United States a lot, I think the US or other countries also can learn something from China. So eventually, I would say China and the world; China and the United States and Europe, they will have to learn how to live together peacefully, how to learn from each other. That will make the world better.

所以，西方当然可以批评中国，但我希望西方不要忽视中国的政治制度，因为这一政治制度真的让中国强大起来，让中国不断发展。现在，美国只是一味地批评中国、攻击中国，这对美国并无益处。我认为中国从美国身上学到了很多，所以，我认为美国和其他国家也应该学习中国。最终，中国和世界，中国和美国、欧洲，都能学习和平相处，相互学习，这会让世界变得更好。

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