作者陈定定系澳门大学助理教授、中国人民大学重阳金融研究院客座研究员，原文刊于7月24日《外交学者》网站，中文版刊于7月24日微信号“国关前沿通讯”（guojiguanxiyanjiu）

　　对于菲律宾而言，无论南海仲裁案的结果最终如何，他们依然难以在南海问题上从中国手中争取到多少优势，这主要是由以下三个原因造成的。

　　首先，菲律宾方面并没有仲裁获胜的十足把握。仲裁法庭也明白这一案件的仲裁结果不仅仅是对中国，对海洋问题领域的国际法的整体都会造成深远影响。中国方面已经就菲律宾单方面挑起的南海仲裁案多次公开表明其“不接受、不参与”的立场，因而无论最终仲裁结果如何，对于中方在南海的决策也不会产生影响。国际仲裁的最终结果必定不会令菲方百分百满意，更可能出现的结果是中菲各打五十大板，双方互有得失。在做出的裁决几乎不可能转化执行的情况下，贸然公布仲裁结果将会把国际法置于一个相当尴尬的处境之中，而这种情况所带来的国际法的信用流失恰恰是国际仲裁法庭所最不愿意看到的。

　　其次，近年来南海仲裁案的闹剧已经严重伤害了中菲间的双边关系。中菲两国交恶将会给中方企业在菲投资带来何种影响目前尚不可知。无论是从经济还是从国家安全的角度来看，菲律宾也许会赢得一场仲裁，但失去的将会更多。

　　再次，菲律宾挑起南海仲裁案的背后，美国的支持是一个重要因素。但当中菲两国真的发生军事冲突的时候，美国虽说是菲律宾的盟友，也不一定会出手相助。而且，中国向来不是一个容易被国际舆论左右自身决策的国家。

　　中国是菲律宾的一大邻国这一事实是不可改变的，菲律宾亟需厘清继续推动如此富有对抗性的对华战略将会带来怎样的长期上的后果。说到底，中菲两国之间产生的摩擦还是要中菲两国在外界的协助下坐下来面对面来谈的。但不幸的是，国际仲裁的介入已经让双方坐下来谈的可能性从近期来看变得微乎其微。

　　以下为英文原稿：

　　3 Reasons the Philippines Will Suffer Because of Its South China Sea Case Against China

　　Even if it wins at The Hague, the Philippines will lose against China in the long run.

　　By Dingding Chen

　　July 23, 2015

　　The arbitration case against China launched by the Philippines has attracted a lot of global media attention and global public opinion seems to support the Philippines’ case. However, a closer analysis reveals that the Philippines might in the end suffer from this arbitration case. How so? There are three main reasons for this.

　　First, there is no guarantee that the Philippines is going to win the arbitration case, even though media reports might suggest that it will. Actually, the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague is being very careful now as it tries to determine whether it has the necessary jurisdiction in the first place. This is not good news for the Philippines. Part of the reason is that the Court understands the huge implications of its decision for not only China, but also for the international law of the sea in general.

　　The reasons for this are not too difficult to understand. Basically, China has stated openly many times already that it will not participate in the arbitration case and thus will not implement any decision made by the tribunal. Of course, the final decision is unlikely to be entirely favorable to the Philippines. The more likely case is that China will win some concessions and the Philippines will win some as well. Either way, China will not accept the decision. Given this, ruling on the case would put the tribunal and international law in a very awkward position simply because the tribunal has no effective means to enforce the decision. That also means that the tribunal, and perhaps international law itself, will lose a lot of credibility before international society (the last thing the tribunal wants to see). So in this case, if the Philippines wins, it still loses and if it loses, it will lose big time.

　　Second, the arbitration case has seriously hurt China-Philippines bilateral relations in recent years. Given China’s continuing rise in Asia, it is important for other Asian states maintain a workable, if not friendly, relationship with China. To put it bluntly, their economic fate is tied to China’s own development. It is not clear how the current cold relationship between China and the Philippines will affect Chinese investment interest in the Philippines, but it is certain that many Chinese firms, especially state firms, will think twice before they purchase any serious stakes in the Filipino economy. Even if the Philippines can win a case against China, in the end it might not be worth it, considering the economic costs of such a win, not to mention the potential costs of a military conflict.

　　Third, a very important factor behind the Philippines’ arbitration case against China is the support of the United States. U.S. support might not be as strong as many in the Philippines seem to believe. Although the Philippines is a U.S. ally, this does not mean that the U.S. will offer military assistance if a ugly territorial conflict occurs between China and the Philippines. Even with U.S. assistance, it is doubtful that the Philippines could win a potential conflict against China. It is true that the Philippines, being a small nation, might win some moral international support in a conflict with China, but such support means little in the realm of international politics. Most importantly, China is unlikely to be deterred by unfavorable international opinion.

　　To conclude, it was indeed a mistake for the Philippines to file an arbitration case against China, no matter how necessary it felt given the circumstances. Indeed, so far, the Philippines has only gained some moral support from a few countries. It is important for the Philippines to think about the long term consequences of such a confrontational strategy against China—China is a permanent neighbor, after all, and countries cannot escape their neighbors. In the end, it is up to China and the Philippines to sit down and resolve their conflicts with some outside help. Alas, this arbitration case has clearly ruined any such hope in the near future.（欢迎关注人大重阳新浪微博：@人大重阳，微信公众号：rdcy2013）