受访者王衍行系中国人民大学重阳金融研究院高级研究员，原文载于3月8日纽约时报。

当特朗普总统对中国商品征收新关税，并威胁与墨西哥和加拿大等盟国展开贸易战时，有一家全球公司可能比大多数竞争对手受影响更小：特斯拉。

然而，由埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）领导的这家电动汽车制造商，也并非毫无风险。特斯拉的业务高度依赖中国，中国不仅是其仅次于美国的第二大市场，也是其全球最大的生产基地。

特斯拉在美国和中国分别建立了高度自给自足的供应链，在全球高度互联的贸易体系中，这种做法实属罕见。因此，特朗普政府对中国商品加征的关税，以及未来可能针对墨西哥和加拿大商品的限制，可能会让特斯拉的竞争对手遭受更大打击，从而间接提升特斯拉的竞争优势。

尽管目前没有证据表明马斯克在直接影响贸易政策，但特朗普政府的一系列措施——包括关税政策——可能会让特斯拉获益，而让其他车企陷入困境。例如，特朗普政府本周暂停了对大多数加拿大和墨西哥制造的汽车及零部件征收 25% 的关税，但这一决定仅是暂时的，一个月后关税可能恢复，这使得那些依赖海外供应链的美国汽车制造商面临极大的不确定性。

除此之外，特朗普政府还在推动取消对电动汽车快速充电站的财政支持，这可能会削弱其他车企与特斯拉庞大充电网络竞争的能力。此外，政府还试图削减甚至取消福特（Ford）、Rivian 等公司用于建设电动车和电池工厂的贷款和补贴。

马斯克与特朗普的“微妙关系”

马斯克本人对贸易问题以及特朗普政府大力推动化石燃料、阻碍电动汽车销售的政策几乎没有公开表态。然而，他对特朗普的公开支持已经引发了不少抗议，不仅导致特斯拉经销店外爆发示威，还对特斯拉的股价产生了负面影响。

尽管如此，作为特朗普的“事实上的顾问”，马斯克如今在政府中的影响力已经远超其他任何汽车行业高管。

“说这是利益冲突，已经是极为委婉的说法了，”乔治·华盛顿大学工程管理助理教授约翰·赫尔维斯顿（John Helveston）评论道。

特斯拉方面拒绝对此置评。一名白宫官员则表示，这些政策早在马斯克公开支持特朗普之前就已制定，并非因其个人立场而改变。

白宫发言人库什·德赛（Kush Desai）在一封电子邮件中写道：“特朗普总统自 2023 年夏天以来，一直在竞选期间猛烈抨击拜登政府‘摧毁就业’的电动汽车政策——这比埃隆·马斯克公开支持特朗普早了一年多。此外，自 2015 年首次参选以来，特朗普始终坚定地要求企业将产品‘在美国制造’。”

特斯拉的供应链布局，让它比竞争对手更有优势

目前，特斯拉正面临欧洲和中国市场销售下滑的困境，而整体电动车市场仍在增长。这家全球最知名的电动车企业正处于危机之中。

马斯克对中国的广泛投资，使他在中美紧张关系加剧的情况下变得更加脆弱。

“他可能成为这场贸易战中的一颗棋子，”专注于中国市场的马萨诸塞州独立汽车分析师雷·邢（Lei Xing）表示。

特斯拉在欧洲和中国的困境不仅源于本土竞争对手的崛起（如比亚迪、小米等），还与马斯克的个人政治立场有关。由于他支持极右翼政党，德国、美国等市场的部分消费者对特斯拉产生抵触情绪。特斯拉股价大幅下跌，马斯克的个人财富也因此受到重创，因为他的大部分资产都与特斯拉股票挂钩。

2012 年，当特斯拉开始在加州弗里蒙特工厂大规模生产电动车时，它设计了一条比大多数竞争对手更少依赖进口的供应链。当时，电动汽车仍然是一项新兴技术，特斯拉不得不自行开发电池、电机等核心组件。

特斯拉在内华达州与日本松下（Panasonic）合作建设了一家电池工厂，至今仍是美国少数能够大规模生产电池的车企之一。

中美“脱钩”背景下，特斯拉的全球供应链策略

2014 年，当马斯克首次提出在中国建厂的想法时，他受到了中国政府的热烈欢迎。六年后，特斯拉上海超级工厂正式投产，并获得了史无前例的优待：

北京政府修改外资车企规则，允许特斯拉不需要本地合资伙伴即可独立运营，成为首家获得此待遇的外国汽车制造商。

提供低息贷款，帮助特斯拉迅速扩张。

调整排放法规，满足特斯拉的要求。

然而，与其他依赖进口零部件的跨国车企不同，马斯克让中国工厂和美国工厂的供应链相对独立，避免了因贸易战导致的供应链断裂风险。

“他早已为贸易战可能升级做好了准备，”中国汽车行业资深顾问迈克尔·邓恩（Michael Dunne）表示。“这种策略让他在今天的环境下受益良多。”

目前，上海工厂生产的特斯拉汽车主要供应欧洲、东南亚和中国本土市场，并不出口至美国。特斯拉在美国销售的所有汽车，均来自加州弗里蒙特工厂和德州奥斯汀工厂。此外，特斯拉还在纽约州布法罗生产自家充电网络的充电设备。

根据美国汽车网站 Cars.com 的数据，特斯拉在“美国制造指数”排行榜中长期位居前列。

“特斯拉具备抵御关税冲击的能力，”Cars.com 数据分析负责人帕特里克·马斯特森（Patrick Masterson）表示。“它的本土生产能力十分强大。”

中国与特斯拉的微妙关系

目前，中国尚未将特斯拉列入针对美国的贸易反制名单，而是选择提高美国农产品（如鸡肉和小麦）的进口关税。

尽管特斯拉的市场影响力有所下降，但马斯克仍然在中美关系中扮演着一个特殊角色。中国领导人可能将他视为沟通桥梁。在 2025 年 1 月特朗普总统就职典礼期间，中国国家副主席韩正飞往华盛顿，并会见了马斯克。

但中国也越来越能控制特斯拉的命运。

“如今，特斯拉无法掌控中国市场的未来，”澳大利亚独立汽车分析师贾新光表示，“但中国，反而可以掌控特斯拉。”

尽管如此，中国政府在针对特朗普政府的贸易报复时，可能仍会谨慎行事，不会轻易将特斯拉及马斯克视为目标，因为这样做可能会削弱其吸引外资的能力。“中国不会轻易打出这张牌，”中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究贸易问题的研究员王衍行（Wang Yanhang）表示。“这将是最后的选择。”

截至目前，在对特朗普政府对华关税政策的反制措施中，中国一直避开了汽车行业，转而提高了对美国农产品（如鸡肉和小麦）的关税。

特斯拉如何应对关税冲击

特斯拉目前正在低调应对一项可能影响其竞争力的中国材料关税问题。

中国是高纯度石墨（graphite）的主要供应国，而这种材料是电动车电池的关键组成部分。去年 12 月，一些试图在美国生产电池级石墨的公司指控中国政府倾销，并向美国国际贸易委员会（U.S. International Trade Commission）提出申请，要求对中国石墨征收高达 800% 的惩罚性关税。

今年 1 月，该贸易委员会就此问题举行听证会。据公开文件显示，特斯拉聘请了一家知名华盛顿律师事务所代表公司发声，并派出了四名高管出席听证会。

“特斯拉正在积极反击，因为他们无法找到中国石墨的替代品，”专注于电池行业的研究机构Rho Motion的研究主管艾欧拉·休斯（Iola Hughes）表示。

上个月，美国国际贸易委员会表示，已经找到“合理证据”表明中国石墨出口正在损害美国制造商，但尚未做出最终裁决。而特朗普总统在最近的贸易言论中，并未提及石墨问题。

以下为英文原文：

As President Trump puts new tariffs on goods from China and threatens a trade war with allies like Mexico and Canada, one global company is likely to suffer less than most of its competitors: Tesla.

But the electric car maker led by Elon Musk, which accounts for a third of the billionaire’s wealth, is also vulnerable if relations with China worsen. That country is the company’s second-largest market after the United States and it produces more cars there than anywhere else.

Tesla has built largely self-sufficient supply chains in the United States and China, a rarity in a world of interconnected trade. As a result, the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Chinese goods, and the continuing threat to put them on Mexican and Canadian products, might help Tesla by hurting its competitors more.

Although there is no evidence that Mr. Musk is shaping trade policies, the tariffs are one of several measures adopted by the Trump administration that may benefit Tesla at the expense of its rivals. On Wednesday, Mr. Trump paused 25 percent tariffs on most autos and parts made in Canada and Mexico, but the reprieve expires in a month, leaving automakers in the United States that depend on foreign supply chains in a state of uncertainty.

The administration is also trying to eliminate financial support for the construction of fast-charging stations for electric vehicles, a move that could handicap companies seeking to compete with Tesla’s extensive network. And it is attempting to cut or eliminate loans and subsidies that competitors like Ford Motor and Rivian are using to finance electric vehicle and battery factories.

Mr. Musk has said next to nothing about trade or the administration’s crusade to promote fossil fuels and impede sales of electric vehicles, which could also hurt Tesla. And his support of Mr. Trump has inspired protests at Tesla dealerships and weighed on Tesla’s share price. But his position as a de facto member of Mr. Trump’s cabinet gives him influence that far exceeds any other auto executive.

“Conflict of interest is putting it very mildly here,” said John Helveston, an assistant professor at George Washington University who teaches engineering management.

Tesla did not respond to a request for comment. A White House official said that its policies predated Mr. Musk’s support for Mr. Trump.

“President Trump consistently slammed Biden’s job-killing electric vehicle policies on the campaign trail since summer 2023 — more than a year before Elon Musk even endorsed President Trump — and he has consistently pressed companies to have their products be made in America since he first ran for president in 2015,” Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, said in an email.

The trade war and other Trump policies also hold risks for Tesla when the company is already in crisis, with sales plummeting in China and Europe even as the overall market for electric vehicles is surging.

Mr. Musk’s extensive investments in China leave him vulnerable as trade tensions between the Chinese government and the Trump administration rise.

“He could become a pawn in all of this,” said Lei Xing, an independent auto analyst based in Massachusetts who is focused on China.

Tesla is already struggling in Europe and China because of competition from Chinese electric carmakers and a dearth of new models. Anger over Mr. Musk’s political activities, including promotion of far-right parties, has also hurt demand in Germany, the United States and other markets. Mr. Musk’s personal wealth is tied up in Tesla stock, which has been on a steep decline.

When Tesla began mass-producing electric cars at a factory in Fremont, Calif., in 2012, it designed a supply chain that was less dependent on imports than virtually all of its competitors. Electric vehicles were a new technology then, forcing Tesla to largely develop its own sources of batteries, motors and other components.

An assembly line at Tesla’s factory in Fremont, Calif., in 2018. Tesla’s supply chain in the United States is less dependent on imports than most of its competitors.

Tesla built a battery factory in Nevada in partnership with Panasonic of Japan, and it remains one of just a few car companies to mass-produce batteries in the United States.

When, in 2014, Mr. Musk began talking about building a factory in China, he received a warm welcome from government officials. Tesla opened a factory in Shanghai six years later under unusually favorable conditions. Beijing changed ownership rules so that the company could set up without a local partner, a first for a foreign automaker in China. The Chinese government also ensured low-interest loans, access to top leaders and even changes that Tesla had sought on emissions regulations.

But Mr. Musk kept supply chains for the Chinese and U.S. factories relatively separate, unlike other auto companies that depend heavily on imported parts.

“He set himself up nicely in the event that trade goes sideways and tariffs go higher,” said Michael Dunne, a longtime China automotive consultant. “And that serves him well today.”

Today, the cars made in Shanghai are sold in Europe, Southeast Asia or in the domestic Chinese market — but not in the United States.

The cars Tesla sells in the United States are made at factories in Fremont and Austin, Texas. Tesla also produces charging equipment for its proprietary charging network — the nation’s largest — in Buffalo, N.Y. Tesla regularly tops an annual ranking by Cars.com, an online shopping site, of how much of a vehicle is American-made.

“Tesla is in a good position” to withstand tariffs, said Patrick Masterson, who oversees compilation of the data that goes into the Cars.com ranking. “Their domestic production is robust.”

Tesla is still vulnerable to tariffs on goods from China and Mexico because a quarter of the components and materials in the car, measured by value, is imported, according to data compiled by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. But electric vehicles made by Tesla’s competitors are much more vulnerable to tariffs.

General Motors’ Chevrolet Equinox sport utility vehicle, for example, is made in Mexico. With a starting price of $34,000, the battery-powered Equinox is a threat to the Tesla Model Y, which starts at $45,000 before government incentives. The Trump administration’s 25 percent tariff will erase most of that advantage, assuming it stands.

The risk to Tesla in China is harder to gauge. So far, Chinese leaders appear to see Mr. Musk’s role in the Trump administration as a plus, viewing him as a potential point of contact. In January, when Han Zheng, China’s vice president, flew to Washington to attend Mr. Trump’s inauguration, he met with Mr. Musk.

“U.S.-China policy often has operated through specific personal relationships,” said Ilaria Mazzocco, a senior fellow in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. “There is hope in China that he could play a constructive role.”

But Mr. Musk has also lost some bargaining power in China.

When Chinese leaders greenlighted the Shanghai factory, Tesla was seen as a technology leader that would spur development of the E.V. industry. With sales plummeting in Europe and weakening in China, however, Tesla production in Shanghai fell 50 percent in February from a year earlier. Chinese automakers like BYD and Xiaomi are introducing new models that rival Tesla in features like autonomous driving.

Tesla’s prestige and leverage in China may be diminished as a result.

“Tesla can no longer control China,” said Jia Xinguang, an independent automotive analyst in Australia. “But China, by contrast, can control Tesla.”

Still, China would probably think twice before targeting Tesla and Mr. Musk because doing so could make it more difficult to attract foreign investment, said Wang Yanhang, a fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University in Beijing who tracks trade issues. “China will not shoot itself in the foot,” he said. “It is the last option.”

China has so far steered clear of autos when retaliating against the Trump administration’s tariffs on Chinese goods, instead raising duties on U.S. agricultural products like chicken and wheat.

Tesla has quietly fought at least one potential tariff on Chinese materials that would have a direct impact on its competitiveness.

China is the main source of high-purity graphite, an essential material for batteries. In December, a group of companies that are trying to produce battery-grade graphite in the United States accused China of dumping and asked the U.S. International Trade Commission to impose punitive duties that could be more than 800 percent.

At a hearing on the issue in January, Tesla hired a prominent Washington law firm to argue its case, and four Tesla executives spoke, according to public documents. Tesla is “pushing back because they don’t see an alternative to the Chinese graphite,” said Iola Hughes, head of research at Rho Motion, which tracks the battery industry.

Last month, the trade agency said there was a “reasonable indication” that Chinese exports of graphite were harming U.S. producers. The agency has not issued a final decision. Mr. Trump’s rhetoric on trade has not included any mention of graphite.

(欢迎关注人大重阳新浪微博：@人大重阳 ；微信公众号：rdcy2013)