针对外媒误读台湾地区领导人选举，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）执行院长、中美人文交流研究中心执行主任王文在选举结果出后第一时间接受英国广播电视公司（BBC）直播专访，三次强调这是“中国的地方选举”。1月16日，王文在《南华早报》刊发长文，阐述两岸统一的必然性，以及批驳所谓“中国军事威胁论”。1月18日观察者网发布长文中文版，目前阅读量已10万+。现将文章内容发布如下：

▲本文英、中版先后刊发于《南华早报》、《观察者网》。

“我希望拿中国护照，堂堂正正地当中国人”，一位台湾学生告诉我，“只有成为中国人，才有底气与世界上最强大国家美国掰手腕。而如果只是台湾人，只能是美国的附庸。”在我的这位台湾学生眼里，过去五年中国大陆能抵御住美国贸易、科技和人权的打压，实在是太了不起了。

这位台湾学生的心态折射了许多年轻台湾人对台湾海峡两岸统一心态的变化。有调查显示，51%台湾年轻人想到大陆工作，喜欢用大陆APP，如抖音、小红书等，崇拜大陆无现金支付、高铁以及相关的生活便利与经济进步。这正是为什么2/3参选政党都明确不支持“台独”甚至公开讲统一的重要原因。

两岸将会真正统一

我乐观地评估，中国大陆和台湾将会在不久将来坐下来谈。两岸将会真正成为统一的中国。

事实上，中国已经为台湾海峡两岸统一做好准备。按照十四五规划，中国大陆已经设定了2035年台湾海峡大桥的时间表。有位台湾艺人写了一首流行歌《（从大陆）坐上高铁到台北》。

历史学家们都承认，一个国家主体实力越强大，统一的力量就会越强。慕强的心态，会促使两岸坐下来谈。多数人看来，中国经济在2035年前后将超过美国，成为世界第一大经济体。在未来，台湾年轻人对中国大陆的羡慕与崇拜仍然会加强。

在过去，台湾人在经济生活上还有优越感，但现在，海峡西岸的福建省GDP总量已超过台湾。在未来五年，福建人均GDP也将超过台湾。不少台湾人正在反思，30年前，台湾生活水平至少是福建的10倍，但现在为何会越来越落后于同属闽南文化的福建？

从这个角度看，时间站在中国大陆这边。民进党当选，不会改变中国大陆的台湾政策。那就是，中国要统一，也必然统一。没有任何力量能够分裂中国。中国大陆希望和平统一，但不承诺放弃武力。武力是为了遏制“台独”，并不是针对台湾人民。可以说，没有“台独”，就没有武统。

民进党领导的“台独”活动越猖獗，中国大陆方面使用军事力量推动统一的进程就会更快。2022年夏季，佩洛西窜访台湾，中国大陆实现绕岛巡航正常化，相当于军事实现了对台湾岛的合围。可以预见，只要“台独”行动再往前进一步，中国大陆方面推进统一的步伐也会再往前进一步，直到最终统一。

在2023年11月“旧金山会晤”上，中国领导人习近平第一次向美国提出“希望美国支持中国和平统一”的要求，美国再次重申“反对“台独””。这些迹象说明，美国的政策目标并非要让台湾“独立”出去，而仅仅是让台湾成为遏制中国大陆发展的工具。美国卖给台湾更多武器，都只是为了军工复合体的利益，而不能改变统一的最终趋势。

揭露西方谎言

现在西方媒体炒作所谓“入侵台湾”的说法，是不确切的。台湾从来就不是主权国家，全世界95%以上的国家都承认，台湾是中国的一部分。这也是联合国共识。大陆与台湾的分歧，不是两个国家的矛盾，而是一个中国内部的分歧。

现在，是西方媒体、政客、智库在混淆是非。他们不会说，林肯总统发动入侵美国南方的战争，也不会说撒切尔夫人发动入侵阿根廷的战争。那他们为什么要说所谓“中国入侵台湾”呢？

还有一个谎言是，“中国军事威胁”。这也是一个伪命题。中国从来没有侵占过他国任何一寸领土。自1979年以来，中国从来没有与任何一个国家或地区发生过军事冲突。战争，是唯一不是“中国制造”的东西。一些美国政客常常讲中国强硬态度，只不过是他们没有做到让中国唯唯诺诺而已。

西方媒体尤其是美国媒体应该多讲一讲关于“美国军事威胁世界”的故事，阿富汗、伊拉克、叙利亚、利比亚，美国军费占全球世界的39%，是美国在威胁着整个世界，包括对中国。从2018年以来，美国对中国发动的贸易战、科技战可以看出，中国所做的，只是在防御应有的主权和本土安全。

好在贸易战、科技战都没有阻止中国的持续发展。打台湾牌，试图遏制中国的想法也会注定落空。中国统一的进程时间仍在继续，唯一不确定的是，什么时候以什么样的形式实现统一，这高度考验中国人的智慧。

但不变的是，中国大陆尊重台湾岛内的政治制度、经济生活，不会影响岛内发展。大陆官员不只一次表态两岸统一以后的政治、安全、经济与文化设计。统一以后，台湾人民的生活会变得更好。

台湾不需要再给美国交保护费，不需要支付那么高额军费。台湾居民会真正成为大国国民，享受大国的荣耀，而且一定会发展得更好。这样的前景是可期的，而且我相信不久将来就能实现。

以下为英文版

Beijing is already prepared for Taiwan reunification

“I hope to get a Chinese passport and become a Chinese citizen,” a Taiwanese student once told me. “Only by being Chinese can we have confidence and become the most powerful country in the world. If we remain only Taiwanese, we are but a mere vassal of the United States.”

This student, who studied with me for five years, knows full well that mainland China can resist US suppression of its trade and technology and the politicising of human rights. His reflections are shared by many young Taiwanese when it comes to wanting pragmatic solutions to national reunification.

Many young people in Taiwan like to use mainland apps, such as TikTok and Little Red Book. They see new breathing space in the rapid rise in standards of living on the mainland and the great potential for continued economic progress.

That’s why one of the three candidates in Saturday’s election said he does not support independence while another said there is no point talking about it. I am optimistic that mainland China and Taiwan will sit down and talk soon, and the two sides will find a path forward to a truly reunified China.

Mainland China is already prepared for cross-strait reunification. Beijing has set 2035 for the completion of construction of a cross-strait bridge. Popular sentiment has been captured by a song by a mainland artist about his desire “to sit on a high-speed train to Taipei”.

The Chinese economy could surpass that of the US by around 2035 and become the world’s largest. In the future, the envy young people in Taiwan have for the mainland will only grow.

In the past, Taiwanese people had a sense of superiority rooted in their higher living standards, but today the gross domestic product of its west coast neighbour, Fujian province, exceeds Taiwan’s. Taiwan’s standard of living was much higher than Fujian’s 30 years ago, but now many Taiwanese are reflecting on why their island’s economy is slipping behind Fujian’s, although they share a regional culture.

Time is on mainland China’s side. The Democratic Progressive Party, currently in power on the island, will never change Beijing’s Taiwan policy. Beijing hopes for a peaceful reunification, but has never said that it will not use force.

Force will be used only to curb Taiwan independence, not against the people of Taiwan. Without Taiwan making a bid for independence, there will be no reunification through military conflict.

The more forcefully the DPP leads Taiwan independence activities, the quicker mainland China’s military forces will prepare for reunification. In the summer of 2022, Taiwan allowed Nancy Pelosi, then speaker of the US House of Representatives, to visit the island. Mainland China conducted military drills around Taiwan, showing the People’s Liberation Army’s ability to blockade the island.

When Chinese President Xi Jinping met Joe Biden outside San Francisco in November, he urged the US president to support China’s peaceful reunification. The US has said it does “not support Taiwan independence”. This shows that US policy goals are designed not to allow Taiwan independence, but to use Taiwan as a tool to curb the development of mainland China.

The US continuing to sell weapons to Taiwan only benefits the military-industrial complex, and cannot change the trend towards reunification.

The so-called “invasion of Taiwan” being hyped by Western media is inaccurate. Taiwan has never been a sovereign country. The differences between the mainland and Taiwan are not conflicts between two countries – they are differences within a single China.

Western media, politicians, and think tanks are confusing right and wrong. They would not say that US president Abraham Lincoln launched a war by invading the southern states, nor would they say that British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher invaded Argentina. So why do they talk of the possibility of “China’s invasion of Taiwan”?

Another lie is the “Chinese military threat”. Since 1979, China has never gone to war with any country. War is the only thing that is not “made in China”. Some American politicians often complain about China’s tough attitude, but this is because they only want China to follow their orders.

The Western media, especially the American media, should tell the story of US military conflicts around the world, including the destruction wrought in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya. US military expenses account for nearly 40 per cent of the world’s total, making the country a threat to the entire world, including China. Since 2018, the US has pursued a trade and tech war against China, which has only tried to preserve its sovereignty and security.

Fortunately, the trade and tech wars have not prevented China’s development. Trying to curb China by playing the Taiwanese card is destined for failure. The reunification process in China continues. The only uncertainty is when it will be achieved and what form it will take.

Mainland China has always respected Taiwan’s political and economic system. Mainland officials have indicated that the island’s political system, security, economy and culture will not be impacted by cross-strait reunification.

Life for the people of Taiwan will undoubtedly improve after reunification. That’s what my Taiwanese student realised after years of studying in Beijing. Taiwan would no longer have to pay the US a huge protection fee for expensive military weapons. Taiwan’s taxpayers would not have to pay to prop up its “central government”.

As citizens of China, Taiwanese residents will truly enjoy the benefits of helping move a great nation forward. They will be recognised and rewarded for their contribution to building a China free of the tempest that has long been a thorn in our nation’s side. I believe this will be realised soon.

Wang Wen is the executive dean and professor of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China.

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