Executive Abstract

◆ In 2024, the global development is at 'Y' type junctions, where 'going forward is bifurcation, and going backward is possible'. Some countries have chosen the new development paths. Some are in transition, some are still standing still, and there are even some countries that are taking 'backward' paths.

◆ In 2024, countries going forward to the bifurcation will face five 'Y' type junctions: political, security, economic, financial, and social. In the political dimension, the choice is either 'subversion' or 'preservation' regarding of policy guidelines. In the security dimension, the choice is either 'conflict' or 'cooperation'. In the economic dimension, the choice is either 'cooperation' or 'opening-up'. In the financial dimension, there is the test of 'risk' or 'stability'. In the social dimension, there is a hidden worry of 'division' or 'unity'.

◆ The year 2024 is a 'super-election year' never seen before in world history. 78 countries and regions, composing of 60% world population is going to hold universal elections. Countries take turns fighting in elections, regional powers look around, and other countries are on the lookout. Elections have been described by many observers as the 'biggest global risk of 2024'. From the view of internal economic development, countries are constantly striving to adjust the power relations between governments and markets, and between governments and the public. From the view of external opening up, conservative forces are rising is many countries, and an increasing number of countries are swinging right.

◆ It is highly likely that 2024 will see another record high in the frequency of military conflicts since World War II. The growth of military expenditures of major powers is generally 2-3 times or even higher than the growth of GDP. The reconciliation probability is very low regarding of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the international situation will continue to evolve in the direction of shock, polarization, and restructuring. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict may involve more military forces, Israel will be still in the situation of 'military superiority and moral condemnation'. Wedges of conflicts in China's periphery driven by the U.S. and the West may erupt, such as the conflicting views among India and Pakistan region, North Myanmar region, North Korea and South Korea region. The Latin America will at the forefront of military conflicts.

◆ In 2024, the global financial and monetary environment will be relatively better. The US dollar interest rate hiking cycle will end in 2024, and more countries will also take the monetary policy shifts. Global major economies, especially the Western major economies growth will slow down in 2024. The interest rate differential between China and the U.S. will narrow. China's monetary policy will have more loose potentials, creating favorable conditions for boosting the economy. The trend of East rising and West falling under the global changes of a magnitude not seen in a century remain unchanged.

◆ The global economy, in a relatively long term, will still face insufficient liquidity, stagnant economic growth and multi-point outbreaks of regional small financial crises. At the 'Y' type junctions, there is no risk of global financial crisis in a short time, but the frequently changing interest rate and the foreign exchange policies will also aggravate the turbulence of global financial markets.

◆ Global big powers competition will extend to the global infrastructure fields, with the infrastructure investment in the developing countries becoming the important competing element. 2024 global infrastructure competition main battlefield will be on the global public opinions, and the related political risks triggered needs special attention.

◆ In 2024, the intensive competition in Global Supply Chains(GSCs) will continue, and the pattern of GSCs will further change. The efficiency-first division pattern formed in the past will be more affected by political factors and security factors, and the GSCs will show an overall contraction. The trend of GSCs’ decentralization' 'regionalization''localization' and 'camping' is relatively obvious.

◆ ChatGPT and artificial intelligence generated content (AIGC) as the representative of the new round of technological revolution in the ascendant, becoming the new driving force of the world economic development. AIGC not only promotes the wide application of emerging technologies and the intelligence of business models, but also affects the job market, labor market, industrial structure, the way of operation of enterprises, and also affects the social structure and social stability of various countries, which in turn triggers changes in the political structure and accelerates the process of the global changes of a magnitude not seen in a century

◆ In 2024, the US social soil and underlying logic will be even worse than ever. Conservatism, nationalism, protectionism and unilateralism will continue to rise in US, leading more countries swinging right. The societies of some countries will be in a more turbulent situation.

◆ US and Western policies towards China has shifted from 'decoupling' to 'de-risking'. Countries are becoming more and more divided domestically in the context of the great power games. In US, political confrontation, wealth gap, value differences, racial discrimination, gun violence and other phenomena will intensify. Europe's major countries’ swinging right and the 'de-Chinaization' will become more torn and antagonistic to the social structure. The Global South lack strategic autonomy, and their domestic social conflicts are more likely to intensify and descend into chaos.