By: Jia Jinjing      Source: chinanews      Published: 2020-12-22

The only major economy in the world that has achieved positive economic growth, has made decisive achievements in the three tough battles, made major progress in scientific and technological innovation, achieved important breakthroughs in reform and opening up, and has effectively guaranteed people’s livelihood… Since the beginning of this year, facing the severe and complex international situation, arduous and difficult China’s domestic reforms, development and stability tasks, especially the severe impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, have delivered a response sheet that is satisfactory to the people and attracts worldwide attention and can be recorded in history.

As 2021 is approaching, in the face of changes in the epidemic and many uncertainties in the external environment, the Central Economic Work Conference for the tenth consecutive year has set “seek progress in stability” as the economic work of the coming year. The general tone.

Experts interviewed by a reporter from China News Agency believe that although “seeking progress while maintaining stability” has not changed, there are more detailed considerations behind these four characters in complex situations.

Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that the current Chinese economy has undergone two major changes from the inside out: on the one hand, the impact and impact of the epidemic, and some of the risks it may derive, have brought the Chinese economy There is a lot of uncertainty; on the other hand, the concept of a new development pattern means that the development stage of China’s economy is also different from the past. All this requires all economic work to continue to insist on progress while maintaining stability to keep the economic operation stable.

“China’s economy will continue to be driven by storms next year.” Jia Jinjing, assistant dean of the Chongyang Institute of Finance, Renmin University of China, pointed out that some countries have adopted some radical stimulus policies this year in response to the epidemic. How will these policies go next year? The impact on the world is not yet known.

In this context, the eight key tasks proposed by the conference for next year’s economic work have attracted much attention. They are: strengthening the national strategic scientific and technological power, enhancing the independent controllability of the industrial chain supply chain, adhering to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, comprehensively promoting reform and opening up, solving the problems of seeds and arable land, strengthening anti-monopoly and preventing the disorderly expansion of capital, and solve it. Prominent problems in housing in big cities, do a good job in carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.

In the opinion of the interviewed experts, the above tasks involve many aspects, but they all directly refer to the key links in China’s economic and social development.

Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China, said that the arrangement of work priorities for next year is not simply from the perspective of short-term demand management, but from the basis of the overall expansion of domestic demand strategy and from the perspective of effective institutional arrangements. .

He mentioned that “strengthening the national strategic scientific and technological strength” this time ranked first among the eight tasks. The previous Central Economic Work Conference has never been so heavily focused on science and technology strategy. This reflects China’s commitment to technological innovation. Strategic support is the core, and at the same time, the independent and controllable industrial chain and supply chain are also the focus of management, which fully reflects the overall planning of development and safety.

In response to the insistence on expanding domestic demand, Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, believes that China’s greater emphasis on demand-side management is expected to have two long-term effects: for internal circulation, the scale of China’s domestic demand is expected to be To achieve a doubling of 2019 and strengthen the endogenous growth momentum of China’s economy; for the external cycle, China will upgrade from a global “supply” center to a global “supply-demand” dual center, thereby reshaping global economy and trade more proactively and flexibly System to fundamentally prevent external risks.

Wang Xiaosong, a researcher at the National Institute of Development and Strategy at Renmin University of China and a professor at the School of Economics, observed that this “mission book” also involves environmental protection and real estate, which are closely related to common people’s sense of identity and happiness. This shows that after China’s economic development reaches a certain level, it has paid more and more attention to improving the quality of development and protecting people’s livelihood.

To complete this series of key tasks, how will policies in various fields “assist”? The meeting gave the direction: next year’s macro policy should maintain continuity, stability and sustainability.

Wen Bin said that under the background that the foundation of China’s economic recovery is not yet solid, macro-control must continue to increase support for the real economy, and the fiscal aspect must maintain a proactive fiscal policy. Monetary policy must emphasize On a stable basis, it is flexible, accurate, reasonable and appropriate. The growth rate of broad money M2 and social financing is basically compatible with the growth rate of nominal GDP. This will keep the overall macro leverage ratio stable and avoid further increases in financial risks.

Wang Xiaosong reminded that next year China’s economy should consider the overall national conditions when setting development goals, and local governments should closely follow their actual conditions in the specific implementation process, so as to formulate practical strategies and guidelines. Can’t make one size fits all and eager for success. “Only by making steady progress throughout, can we avoid sharp turns.”

The author is assistant dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China.

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