Source: China Daily Published: 2024-07-15

By Diao Daming

The shooting incident targeting former US president Donald Trump on Saturday once again highlights the rampant and unresolved issue of gun violence in the United States. That it happened at a political rally where one would expect tight security measures, underscores the severity of the gun violence problem in that country.

Objectively, the incident is likely to provoke anger within the conservative wing of the Republican Party. President Joe Biden's response that he is grateful Trump is safe, is relatively standard in the face of an unexpected event involving an opponent. If Biden were to continue with campaign activities as usual, it could potentially increase the risk of retaliation from the conservative camp, leading to further unexpected incidents. Hence, a temporary suspension of campaigning is a prudent decision. Subjectively, continuing campaign activities would involve criticizing and attacking Trump as an opponent, which may not be appropriate at this moment. It could also provide ammunition for those seeking to incite extreme actions against Trump, making it a less manageable situation. Thus, a pause is advisable.

This suspension, in fact, will also benefit Biden personally. Since the first televised debate, Biden has faced criticism for his poor performance, with calls from within his party to withdraw from the race. He has also made several gaffes in public. Taking a break at this juncture can shift the focus, possibly easing tensions or reducing some pressure on him, ultimately working in his favor in the election.

The attack on Trump is a significant and noteworthy event that is bound to have some impact on the election trajectory.

However, its impact may not necessarily be decisive, other than reinforcing existing trends. For instance, this incident will undoubtedly strengthen support for Trump among Republican voters. Similarly, this incident is likely to accelerate the return of conservative voters to the fold, with more people clearly expressing support for Trump, potentially stabilizing his slight lead over Biden in the polls, which would have been within the margin of error even without this incident. Therefore, this incident is seen as reinforcing current trends but may not necessarily have a critical impact on the overall outcome. With less than four months remaining until the election, the outcome remains uncertain.