Source:Hubei Satellite TV’s”Yangtze River News”      published:2020-09-07

The interviewed expert Lin Minwang is a researcher at the Institute of International Studies of Fudan University and a visiting researcher at the Chongyang Institute of Finance, Renmin University of China. This article was published in On September 5, Hubei Satellite TV’s”Yangtze River News”, the original title was”India has prepared for the worst, China cannot underestimate the situation.”

As we all know, the current tensions on the Sino-Indian border are caused by India’s rebellion and treachery, which seriously violated the relevant agreements, agreements and agreements between the two countries. Important consensus. So, before this, what consensus has China and India reached? In the next period of time, what direction will the Sino-Indian border tensions develop?

India’s “beating back and a rake” was severely refuted by China:treachery

August 29 From the night to the early morning of the 30th, the Indian border guards illegally crossed the line in the area south of Pangong Lake and near the Rechin Mountain Pass in the western section of the Sino-Indian border and blatantly provoked. However, the Indian side”beat back and rake”, saying that the Indian military first realized that China would take so-called”provocative military actions” and then”taken preemptive military actions.”

On August 31, the press spokesperson of the Western Theater Command, Colonel Zhang Shuili, made a statement and pointed out that this move by the Indian side seriously violated China’s territorial sovereignty and severely undermined the peace in the Sino-Indian border area. China strongly opposes stability, rebellion and treachery.

At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on September 2, spokesperson Hua Chunying pointed out that the Indian side’s statement was It fully proves that this incident is the first for the Indian army to illegally cross the line to provocation, the unilateral change of the status quo in the border area, and the violation of bilateral agreements and important consensus.

The climate in the border area between China and India is so bad that the Indian army is hoarding supplies for the winter?

The place where the tension between China and India occurred this time is Pangong Lake. Nearby is the Kalevan River Valley, which is an inherent territory of China. In the 1962 Sino-Indian border self-defense counterattack, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army cleared out all Indian invasion strongholds in the area north of the south bank of Pangong Lake. In recent years, India has repeatedly launched provocations in this area. Since April this year, India has increased its troops in batches to the Ladakh region where Pangong Lake is located. However, the average altitude of Ladakh is more than 4000 meters. Even in the midsummer of July, the highest temperature during the day is only about 10 degrees. Winter begins in late September every year, and the lowest temperature can reach more than minus 40 degrees. It is reported that the Indian Ministry of Defense is equipping the soldiers stationed here with thick clothing, snow goggles, face masks, backpacks and other materials for winter.

India deliberately expand the dispute in an attempt to use it as a bargaining chip

【Yangtze River News number:Since June 2020, the situation along the border between China and India has been developing towards relaxation, and the frontline forces of the two sides have also achieved a certain degree of disengagement. Under such circumstances, the Indian side has turned back, illegally crossed the line and blatantly provoked. What do you think India is doing this way?

Lin Minwang: After the Kalevan Valley incident on June 15, five rounds of military commander-level meetings were held. Finally One round is August 2. In fact, it has played a certain role in cooling down the situation on the spot, but the plan to ease the situation in several points is not what India hopes, and it has not achieved his goal, so his current strategy is to expand the dispute.If there is a disagreement on one point, he will expand it into a few points of disagreement, bundle the last few points, and then use this as a asking price to negotiate with the Chinese. This is what India has always been Negotiations and a strategy on the border.

India has prepared for the worst, and China cannot underestimate the situation

【 Yangtze River News]:In recent months, India has continuously increased its troops to the border areas between China and India, and is storing supplies for the winter. What do you think this means in India? What direction will the situation along the China-India border develop next?

Lin Minwang: You have to make your negotiating stand very tough, and you must show the other party that you have done the worst Plan, so now the tough signals displayed by all parties in India, including his plan to spend the winter here, In fact, he sends a strong signal to the Chinese side. If there is no agreement, he is willing to spend the winter here. Yes, you can watch his fight with Pakistan’s Siachen Glacier, allowing soldiers to stay in the ice and snow for more than ten years, so don’t underestimate India in this respect.

For the future development, I think there are several possibilities for this, but I personally tend to be able to disengage from contact in some places and realize the current situation. The situation has cooled down, but I personally still worry that there may not be complete disengagement at a few points. Soldiers on both sides may need to spend the winter here.