Source: Global Times Published: 2024-06-30

By GT staff reporters

French President Emmanuel Macron's political gamble faces its first test as voters headed to the polls on Sunday in the first round of snap parliamentary election, which could potentially result in the country's first far-right government since World War II. Observers believe that a victory of the far-right could not only render Macron a 'lame duck' in his remaining years as president, but also affect France's support for Ukraine and have an impact on EU unity.

Experts said a victory for the far-right could also lead to an increase in protectionist measures against China in Europe, particularly in the electric vehicle sectors. However, they believe that any sensible European politician will eventually recognize that cooperation with China is essential for addressing the continent's struggling economy.

Polls opened at 0600 GMT and will close at 1600 GMT in small towns and cities, with an 1800 GMT finish in the bigger cities, when the first exit polls for the night and seat projections for the decisive second round a week later are expected.

Opinion polls have suggested that the far-right National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen and her protégé, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, has a comfortable lead of 33-36 percent of the popular vote, with a hastily assembled left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front, in second place on 28-31 percent and Macron's centrist alliance in third on 20-23 percent, Reuters reported on Sunday.

This is a two-round election, and most of the National Assembly's 577 seats will not be decided until the second-round run-off vote next Sunday.

Candidates can be elected in the first round if they win an absolute majority of votes in their constituency, but that is rare, per Reuters. Most constituencies will need a second round involving all candidates who received votes from at least 12.5 percent of registered voters in the first round. The top scorer wins.

Calling Macron's snap election a 'risky gamble,' Wang Yiwei, a professor at the School of International Relations at Renmin University of China, said the French President wants to use the election to scare voters out of their attraction to the 'extremes,' and return a centrist majority; or he will end up being a lame duck for the next three years while still in office, with far-right politicians to impede his policy decision and implementation.

Some experts sand that in the two-round election system in France, the first round usually serves as a way for voters to express their emotions, while the second round tends to be more rational. Macron may still feel confident that he can win this gamble, Zhao Yongsheng, a research fellow of the Institute of Regional and International Studies at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, told the Global Times.

'We are going to win an absolute majority,' said Le Pen in a newspaper interview on Wednesday, predicting Bardella would be prime minister. Her party has a high-spending economic program and seeks to reduce immigration.

If the RN wins an absolute majority, French diplomacy could be headed for an unprecedented period of turbulence, with Macron - who has said he will continue his presidency until the end of his term in 2027 - and Bardella jostling for the right to speak for France, media reported.

Affect support for Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told AFP on June 27 that he believes France will continue to back his country during Russia-Ukraine crisis and that its next government should be independent from Russian influence and pro-European.

Bardella said earlier to be 'vigilant' in the face of any Russian threats but also said his party would not send troops to Ukraine if it wins snap elections. Macron had earlier rattled his European partners by saying he would not rule out the possibility of deploying troops to Ukraine.

The RN, once it secures seats in parliament, will make some adjustments in its support for Ukraine and NATO, but those changes will be limited, according to Cui Hongjian, a professor at the Academy of Regional and Global Governance at Beijing Foreign Studies University.

Cui said the French public has not withdrawn its support for Ukraine; they simply hope the government will reduce the extent of its support.

The main function of the parliament is to allocate funds, so RN will definitely seek to reduce France's financial support for Ukraine. Therefore, France's support for Ukraine will certainly be affected, Wang explained.

Leaving the EU and the eurozone no longer feature on RN's electoral manifestos, the last time they did, in the 2017 presidential elections, Macron handed the far-right party a defeat.

Bardella has already indicated he would challenge Macron on global issues. France could lurch from being a pillar of the EU to a thorn in its side, demanding a rebate of the French contribution to the EU budget, clashing with Brussels over European Commission jobs and reversing Macron's calls for greater EU unity and assertiveness on defense.

In an effort to garner support and influence, the RN has abandoned its extreme Eurosceptic views and is now advocating for significant reforms within the EU, particularly to address the needs of France and prioritize French interests, according to Cui.

Cui said since France holds a prominent position within the EU, any increase in power for the RN could potentially raise concerns from Europe. This could lead to a wider sense of disillusionment and disappointment throughout the EU.

More protectionism

While the full extent of RN's victory on China-France and China-Europe relations is yet to be determined, Chinese experts believe that RN's involvement in French and European politics may not help reduce ideological tensions with China. Moreover, it may also lead to an increase in protectionist measures against China in Europe.

There are some who believe that far-right political parties in Europe are still relatively pragmatic and utilitarian, so they may temporarily reduce the ideological battle in order to maintain economic and trade relations with China, said Cui, while noting that he begs to differ.

The far-right political parties still uphold the so-called traditional values of Europe. In such context, they may not easily compromise on issues related to democracy or human rights, said Cui.

In 2021, Le Pen said in an interview with Nikkei Asia that it is not Russia, but the threat of rising China that needs to be addressed.

Wang also said that the impact of RN's victory is that it will prioritize protecting the interests of France, which can have a protectionist tint when it comes to areas such as electric vehicles.

Provisional European Union duties of up to 38.1 percent on imported Chinese-made EVs are set to kick in by July 4 while the bloc investigates what it says are excessive and unfair subsidies. Chinese observers said the best outcome the Chinese side wants is that the European Commission, the executive body of the EU, scrap its tariff decision before July 4 and abide by WTO rules.

Chinese experts said that however, the French parliament will exert limited influence on France's diplomacy while Macron remains in power, as foreign affairs ultimately fall within the president's jurisdiction.

Any sensible European politician, no matter from which political party, will ultimately realize that when it comes to economic development and improving people's livelihoods, cooperating with China is in line with France and Europe's interests, said experts.