Zhao Xijun: Report sees 2024 giving China economic edge


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Zhao Xijun: Report sees 2024 giving China economic edge


Source: CD Published: 2024-01-20

China's effective growth-stabilizing policies will continue to exert influence on global development this year, positioning the nation as a primary economic driver, said a report on Friday.

Released by the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies under the Renmin University of China, the report emphasized China's enduring economic strength and sustained optimism about its long-term positive development. It said 2024 will be pivotal in the nation's shift toward high-quality development.

Anticipating China's 2024 GDP growth to be about 5 percent, surpassing that of developed economies, the report is roughly in alignment with the International Monetary Fund's revised projections. The IMF forecast that China's economic growth in 2024 would be 4.6 percent.

Zhao Xijun, co-president of the China Capital Market Research Institute at the Renmin University of China, said, 'In 2024, economic development will persist in a steady recovery. The groundwork from 2023, marked by 5.2 percent economic growth, positioned the country for continued progress in 2024.'

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP exceeded 126 trillion yuan ($17.6 trillion) in 2023, growing by 5.2 percent. This growth rate is 2.2 percentage points faster than in 2022.

Addressing recent stock market fluctuations, Zhao said: 'Last year, China's economy was characterized by a wave-like development process rather than a sharp rebound. This created a gap compared with investors' expectations, affecting their confidence in the stock market. Additionally, positive macro-level policy information has not been promptly communicated to investors during the ongoing economic recovery, influencing their judgment.'

Various policies have been introduced to further boost the economy in 2024. This may help boost investors' confidence and improve their expectations, Zhao said.

Vivian Jiang, chair of Deloitte China, expressed her optimism.

'The consumption behaviors of younger generations will be very different,' she said. 'And they will create many opportunities, whether from service consumption or other areas such as entertainment, outdoor sports and the pet economy.'

Jiang further said she foresees a multitude of possibilities arising from the unique preferences and lifestyles of the younger demographic.

As for the digital market, Jiang emphasized the transformative potential of technology. 'China probably has the biggest market for user cases … there is a place for businesses to test the commercial viability of those innovations.'