Source: China Daily Published: 2025-01-02

By Ren Qi

The Russia-Ukraine conflict began in February 2022 and both sides remain entrenched in battle with no peace in sight, with some observers closely watching whether the incoming administration of US President-elect Donald Trump will bring changes to the situation in 2025.

In Russia's Tatarstan, which hosted the 2024 BRICS Kazan Summit in October, Ukrainian forces used unmanned aerial vehicles to attack residential buildings on Dec 21, leading to the temporary closure of several airports.

The head of Tatarstan, Rustam Minnikhanov, reported that eight drones attacked Kazan, over 1,000 kilometers away from the Ukrainian border. Six hit residential buildings, one struck an industrial facility and one was shot down over a river. The attacks caused fires and destroyed buildings, with no fatalities or injuries reported.

"Whoever tries to destroy something in Russia, no matter how hard they try, will face much greater destruction in their own country and will regret their actions here," President Vladimir Putin vowed.

Although Kyiv has not commented on the strike, Russian experts suggested that the attack on Kazan could escalate tensions between Ukraine and the Trump administration.

"Broadly, the attack is an attempt to change the logic of the negotiation process proposed by Trump," said Ivan Loshkarev, an associate professor of political theory at MGIMO University.

Trump repeatedly said during campaigning that he planned to settle the conflict in Ukraine in just one day. Many considered that a "clear "victory for Russia and a "death sentence" for Ukraine if Trump achieved his goal. In an interview with Time magazine published on Dec 12, Trump also criticized Ukraine's use of US-supplied missiles deep into Russian territory, saying "We are just escalating this war and making it worse."

At his annual end-of-year news conference on Dec 19, Putin said he was ready for talks with the US president-elect at "any time". He also said his troops held the upper hand across the battlefield.

Loshkarev stated that Ukraine will continue coordinating with the departing US administration and is frantically trying to create obstacles for the potential negotiation process after Trump takes office on Jan 20.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has threatened further attacks on military installations in Russia.

"We will definitely continue to strike Russian military targets — with drones and missiles, increasingly with Ukrainian-made ones — specifically targeting military bases and Russian military infrastructure used in this terror against our people," he said in his evening video address from Kyiv on Dec 21.

In mid-November, US President Joe Biden approved Ukraine's use of its Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, against targets inside Russia. This was soon followed by Britain's approval for similar use of its Storm Shadow missiles.

Nuclear doctrine

Moscow responded swiftly and dramatically. Putin first announced a revision of Russia's nuclear doctrine. Moscow then used a nuclear-capable hypersonic Oreshnik missile against Ukraine and issued a statement asserting the right to strike military installations in states allowing Ukraine to use their weapons to attack Russia.

Putin recently indicated that Russia may use the Oreshnik again, including hitting "decision-making centers" in Kyiv, if Ukraine continues attacking Russia with long-range Western weapons. Putin also claimed that the Oreshnik is impossible to intercept and has destructive power comparable to that of a nuclear weapon even when fitted with a conventional warhead.

Military expert Vladislav Shurygin stated that the Oreshnik missile could bypass any existing missile defense system and destroy well-protected deep bunkers without using nuclear warheads.

The Oreshnik missile was launched at Yuzhmash, a Ukrainian plant that produced the world's largest strategic missiles of their kind.

"That was a demonstrative launch that will make the West reconsider its direct involvement in the Ukraine conflict," Russian military expert Viktor Litovkin noted.

However, Chinese experts believe that Moscow's threats and the use of a new missile do not suggest that escalation to nuclear use is likely. On the contrary, they see strong indications that it is unlikely.

In spite of tensions, Russia still maintains that the conflict is a special military operation rather than a full-scale war, said Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Zhang explained that Russia's goal in launching the operation is to ensure its own security interests, including demanding that Ukraine be demilitarized, and maintaining its traditional friendship with Ukraine, rather than allowing it to become a leading anti-Russian force.

Since the launch of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine, the Biden administration has been cautious in what it has permitted Kyiv to do with US-supplied arms.

For months, the US resisted calls to allow the use of long-range missiles against targets inside Russia.

The White House's decision to reverse the approach in mid-November indicated a high degree of confidence that Russia would not respond with any kind of nuclear weapons against Ukraine or any NATO state.

Wang Wen, executive dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, does not think the US is likely to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the short term under Trump's leadership.

He noted that the conflict is long-term and neither Ukraine nor Russia is likely to have an agreement within the current conditions and borders.

Experts also said Trump and Republicans in Congress are unlikely to continue to provide Ukraine with the same levels of economic and military support as the country received from Democrats and the Biden administration. Ukraine has relied heavily on international aid to keep its economy afloat.

In a show of solidarity at a summit in Brussels recently with Zelensky, European Union leaders insisted that no decision can be taken about the future of war-ravaged Ukraine without its consent — or behind the backs of its partners in Europe.

"So now is not the time to speculate about different scenarios. Now is the time to strengthen Ukraine for all scenarios," said Antonio Costa, the president of the European Council.

There are also concerns that the comeback of Trump might result in a poor deal for Ukraine.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said it is important to "ensure long-term aid to Ukraine — it must be clear that we are prepared to enable support as long as it is needed".Air defense, artillery and ammunition are high on the list, he told reporters.

Luxembourg's Prime Minister Luc Frieden had a similar message.

"We need to stand with Ukraine, and every step … needs to be taken with Ukraine and in the presence of the European Union. The future of Ukraine is decided in Europe and not elsewhere," he said.

Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof underscored that only Ukraine can determine the conditions for talks, "and it is not for us to talk about that. At the moment, Ukraine has not yet indicated that they are prepared to do so".

In Ukraine, the 27-nation EU has provided at least as much support — more than 180 billion euros ($187 billion) since the conflict — as the US.

Gas deal

In an economic blow dealt to Europe under the shadow of conflict, Russian energy giant Gazprom said on Wednesday that it has stopped the gas supply for transit through Ukraine due to the expiration of key agreements and the lack of renewal by the Ukrainian side, according to Xinhua News Agency.

However, the European Commission played down the impact of the halt, saying the stop had been expected and that the bloc was prepared for it.

While the EU can probably continue to prop up Ukraine's ravaged economy, it is almost certainly unlikely to be able to provide the military backing that the country's armed forces would require to prevail.

However, economic aid from the West brings hope to Kyiv in maintaining its fight against Russia. The Biden administration recently transferred $20 billion to Ukraine, providing an urgently needed economic lifeline in the form of a loan that will be repaid using interest earned from Russia's frozen central bank assets.

Zelensky said Kyiv needs the EU and the US to stay united and that "only together" can the US and Europe "stop Putin and save Ukraine". He said that the only effective security guarantee remains NATO membership.

"I don't think Ukraine will join NATO as desired, judging from the current situation, but NATO and the US will possibly provide Ukraine with a certain level of security guarantee," said Wang Yong, a professor at the School of International Studies and director of the Center for American Studies at Peking University.

Andrey Sidorov, head of the world politics department at Moscow State University, agreed. He said Trump was not particularly enthusiastic about meeting Zelensky, although his advisers insisted that it was very necessary.

Sidorov said Moscow and Kyiv still have major differences of opinion.

"It will be challenging for Ukraine to accept the loss of territories, while sanctions from Russia are unlikely to be lifted even if peace is reached."