您如何解读几乎所有美国主流出版物和专家目前关于“中国想要破坏世界秩序”的观点。
how do you interpret the current view of virtually every mainstream U.S. publications and experts that “China wants to break the world order.”
王文:这折射了美国主流刊物和专家们对美国衰落的焦虑。中国崛起,有可能意味着美国不再是世界第一大经济体,意味着美国模式不是世界上最流行的模式,但这与所谓“破坏世界秩序”是两回事情。中国是最强调遵守联合国宪章的主要大国。过去30年,中国没有发动战争,参与了所有的国际条约,没有退出任何重大国际机制,相比于美国发动伊拉克、阿富汗、叙利亚、利比亚、乌克兰战争,特朗普退出十多项国际条约,美国才是真正的破坏世界秩序的国家。我认为,美国主流出版物和专家需要有反思与自醒的精神,应该重新发现中国,更应该通过与中美合作,更好地稳定世界秩序做出贡献。
This reflects the anxiety of mainstream American publications and experts about the decline of the United States. The rise of China may mean that the United States is no longer the world's largest economy, and that the American model is not the most popular model in the world, but this is different from the so-called "breaking the world order". China is the major power that most emphasizes abiding by the UN Charter.
In the past 30 years, China has not launched wars, participated in most of international treaties, and has not withdrawn from any major international mechanisms. Compared with the wars launched or provoked by the United States in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Ukraine, Trump has withdrawn from more than a dozen international treaties. It is the real country that breaks the world order. I believe that mainstream American publications and experts need to have a spirit of reflection and self-awakening, they should rediscover China, and more importantly, they should contribute to better stabilizing the world order through cooperation with China and the United States.
您如何描述刚刚结束的为期一周的中国共产党第 20 次全国代表大会的主要成果。
How would you describe the key results from the just concluded week long 20th Conference Communist Party of China.
王文:我知道,许多西方媒体都在讨论20大的权力过渡与人事问题。其实,这很狭窄。真正关心的,应该是中国政策是否延续,是否能够持续经济增长,是否能够持续为世界做贡献。这恰恰是20大的最大成果。20大实现了集体领导层的换届与政策持续之间的有机结合。众望所归,习近平进入第三任期,这是全党、全国人民对他的信任,也是对他的重托。而最高常委领导班子更年轻、更了解习主席,更有助于政策的执行与持续。中国进入到第二个一百年的伟大征程,那就是中华人民共和国建立100周年,中国要成为一个社会主义现代化强国。要实现这个目标,需要更加团结、更加稳定的领导集体。每一个国家领导人,都有权利选择自己的政治合作伙伴。为什么一到中国,就会有那么多阴谋论呢?我觉得,现在那些有一些人应该改变他们观察中国的眼光。
Wang Wen: I know that many western media are discussing the transition of power and personnel issues at the 20th Congress of CPC. Actually, it's very narrow. The real concern should be whether China's policy can continue, whether it can continue to grow economically, and whether it can continue to contribute to the world. This is precisely the biggest achievement of the 20th Congress of CPC. 20th Congress of CPC achieved an organic combination between the change of collective leadership and the continuation of policies.
As expected, Xi Jinping entered his third term, which is the trust of the whole party and the people of the whole country in him. The leadership of the Standing politburo Committee is younger and has a better understanding of President Xi, which is more conducive to the implementation and sustainability of the policy.
China has entered the great journey of its second centenary, which is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. China will become a powerful modern socialist country by 2050. Achieving this goal, requires a more united and stable leadership. Every national leader has the right to choose his own political partners. Why are there so many conspiracy theories once you arrive in China? I think now there are some people who should change the way of observing China.
与其他大国相比,中国死于该病毒的人数要低得多,但现在由于其零新冠肺炎政策,其经济正受到与病毒相关的限制的重压。GDP增长放缓,青年就业率下降20%。。。
China has experienced a much lower death toll from the virus compared with other big countries, but now due to its zero-covid policies its economy is buckling under the weight of virus-related restrictions. Showing up in slower GDP growth, youth employment 20%...
王文:我不知道你说的20%数据从哪里来。但我必须承认,中国为了防范疫情,的确付出很多。如果按照美国的方式,中国至少要死亡400万多人,但过去三年,中国因疫情死亡人数不超过1万。谁能衡量这400万人的经济价值呢?所以,中国执行以人民为中心的政策,为保护人民的生命,是不惜经济代价的。当然,现在中国正在采取更多有效的综合方式,既能够防止更多传染,又能够持续经济。2022年第三季度,中国经济增长3%,CPI保持在2%,整体失业率保持在5.6%。这个经济成绩虽然没有过去好,但比起多数国家,中国仍是经济最稳定、最持久增长的国家。
Wang Wen: I don't know where the 20% data you said came from. But I must admit that China has indeed paid a lot to prevent the Covid-19 pandemic. If the U.S. approach is followed by China, at least 4 million people would die in China, but in the past three years, the number of deaths in China due to the Covid-19 pandemic has not exceeded 10,000. Who can measure the economic value of these 4 million people?
Therefore, China implements a people-centered policy at any economic cost to protect people's lives. Of course, China is now taking a more effective and comprehensive approach that can prevent more contagion and sustain the economy. In the third quarter of 2022, China's economy grew by 3%, the CPI remained at 2%, and the overall unemployment rate remained at 5.6%. Although this economic performance is not as good as in the past, compared with most countries, China is still the country with the most stable and long-lasting economic growth.
这是西方建制派的观点。 您是否同意,中国现在是否应该在其 Covid 政策上变得更加灵活,并使其与最大的经济体和贸易伙伴保持一致?
That’s the Western establishment opinion. Do you agree, should China now become more flexible in its Covid policies and bring them in line with the largest economies and trading partners?
王文:西方建制派的一贯主张不是要遏制中国吗?如果中国保持目前的Covid政策,形成中国长期经济低速,不正是满足了他们延缓中国崛起的战略吗?我觉得,这是矛盾。对于建制派的看法,中国要警惕。中国不可能与美国的Covid政策保持一致,正如我刚才说的,那样将导致数百万人死亡,进而造成中国的灾难。但有一点是肯定的,中国Covid政策必须不能阻碍经济的可持续发展,更不能阻碍国家崛起与民族复兴。中国的复合政策正在调整中。中国在经济、社会、外交政策以及防疫政策上都会保持独立自主。美国的观点,我们能听到,但是否跟随,决定权在中国。如果真正有利于中国的建议,中国应该会听从的。但如果是一个陷阱,那中国一定会很小心。
Wang Wen: Isn't the consistent claim of the Western establishment to contain China? If China maintains the current Covid policy, the long-term economic slowdown in China would be satisfy their strategy of delaying China's rise, isn’t it? I think this is a contradiction.
China should be wary of the views of the establishment. It is impossible for China to align with the US Covid policy which, as I just said, will lead to millions of deaths and thus a disaster for China.
But one thing is certain, China's Covid policy must not hinder the sustainable development of the economy, let alone the rise of the country and the rejuvenation of the nation. China's compound policy is being adjusted. China will remain independent in economic, social, foreign policy and covid policies. We can hear the views of the United States, but it is up to China to decide whether to follow them. If the suggestion is really beneficial to China, China should heed it. But if it is a trap, then China will be very careful.
在您看来,美国对中国有政策吗? 如果是,那是什么——
In your view, does America have a policy for China? If so what is it—
王文:在特朗普执政之前,应该说,美国对中国是没有固定战略的。中国是美国的战略工具,用于制衡苏联、或支持反恐战争、或拯救经济危机。特朗普做了战略动员,提醒美国将中国视为美国第一竞争对手,拜登延续了特朗普的对华政策,而且变本加厉。拜登政府刚上台就提出对华“竞争、合作、对抗”的三分法,现在又改成“投资、结盟、竞争”的“三点论”,可无论怎么变,都是对中国的打压遏制。这是中国所不同意的。另外,更重要的一点是,拜登政府希望在台湾海峡复制一场像乌克兰危机那样的战争,对台湾做虚假的防御承诺,同时,刺激中国大陆对台湾动武,我觉得,这种策略非常危险。
Wang Wen: Before Trump took office, it should be said that the United States did not have a fixed strategy for China. China is a strategic tool of the United States, used to check and balance the Soviet Union in 1980s, or to support the war on terrorism in Bush Administration, or to rescue the financial crisis in Obama Administation. Trump made a strategic mobilization to remind the United States to regard China as the first competitor of the United States. Biden continued Trump's China policy and intensified it.
The Biden administration put forward the "competition, cooperation, confrontation" triad as soon as it came to power, and now it has been changed to the "three points" of "investment, alliance, and competition", but no matter how it changes, it is a suppression of China & contain China. This is something China disagrees with.
In addition, and more seriously, the Biden administration hopes to replicate a war like the Ukraine crisis in the Taiwan Strait, make false defense commitments to Taiwan, and at the same time, stimulate the Chinese mainland to use force against Taiwan. I think this strategy is very dangerous .
你会如何向美国观众描述中国对美国的政策。
And how would you describe to an American audience what is China’s policy for the United States.
王文:中国一直希望与美国保持合作关系。中国是美国的战略伙伴。中国买了最多的美元国债,出口给美国最多的商品,过去50年从来没有与美国发生军事冲突,即使中国领导人,都从来没有公开骂过美国。中国是温和的大国,不要把中国视为敌人或竞争对手,不要相信美国政客妖魔化中国的言论。了解中国的最好办法是,来中国走一趟,或者交一个中国大陆的朋友。
Wang Wen: China has always hoped to maintain cooperative relations with the United States. China is a strategic partner of the United States. China has bought the most US dollar treasury bonds and exported the most commodities to the United States. In the past 50 years, China has never had a military conflict with the United States.
Even Chinese leaders have never publicly scolded the United States. China is a moderate power. Don't regard China as an enemy or a competitor, and don't believe the remarks of American politicians to demonize China. The best way to learn about China is to come to China by yourself, or make a friend from mainland China.
我想与我最近为纽约外交政策协会所做的报告相切,题为“美国和中国的生意就是生意”。 我在其中建议,在过去的三十年里,中国和美国的政客未能缓和这两个超级大国之间危险的紧张关系。 但两国的商界都取得了长足的进步。 所以,政客们应该站在一旁,让商界领袖带头。
I’d like to tangent to my recent report for the Foreign Policy Association in NY, its titled “The Business of America and China is Business.” In it I suggest that over the last three decades, politicians in China and the U.S. have failed to soften the dangerously tense relations between the two superpowers. But the business community in both countries have made enormous strides. So, the politicians ought to stand aside and let business leaders take the lead.
王文:这个观点我赞同。目前,中美关系最需要回到务实的轨道上。政客容易从政治正确、意识形态、地缘政治的角度去思考问题,总是从谁是第一经济体的竞争中寻求想象中的威胁。商界更加现实主义,更愿意从利益出发,思考两国的未来。在我看来,中美两国必须聚焦在如何服务本国人民、如何提升两国实际福祉、如何解决国内的问题。现在,两国都有许多国内的挑战,但不要把妖魔化对方视为解决国内挑战的方法。在这方面,商界可能更加务实。事实上,只有中美两国合作,才能更好地解决国内问题。
Wang Wen: I agree with this point of view. Right now, China-US relations most need to get back on a pragmatic track. Politicians tend to think about issues from the perspective of political correctness, ideology, and geopolitics, and always seek imaginary threats from the competition of who is the first economy.
The business community is more realistic and more willing to think about the future of the two countries from the perspective of interests. In my opinion, China and the United States must focus on how to serve their own people, how to improve the actual well-being of both countries, and how to solve domestic problems.
Now, both countries have many domestic challenges, but don't see demonizing each other as a solution to domestic challenges. The business commumity may be more pragmatic in this regard. In fact, only the cooperation between China and the United States can better solve domestic problems.
作为新一代的智库学者,相比于老一代学者,你对美国研究有哪些不同的看法?
As a new generation of think tank scholars, what are your different views on American research compared to the older generation of scholars?
王文:老一代学者奠定了厚实的美国研究基础。在中国,像王缉思、阎学通等,他们都是非常令我尊敬的学者。作为新一代学者,我们理应更加努力。相比之下,我们可能更愿意平视美国。尤其是在我们成长的过去20年,美国的弱点、缺点被互联网放大了,而且美国在阿富汗、伊拉克、叙利亚、利比亚、乌克兰犯了大量的错误,在国内政策上也爆发经济危机、民主危机。与此同时,中国保持年均9%的经济增长,解决了绝对贫困问题,保持和平的外交政策,维护着稳定的社会环境。在新一代学者看来,美国没有资格做中国的教师爷。正如我今年8月在纽约时报的文章,中国人不再仰视美国了。
Wang Wen: The older generation of scholars has laid a solid foundation for American studies. In China, like Wang Jisi, Yan Xuetong, etc., they are all scholars I respect very much. As a new generation of scholars, we deserve to work harder.
By contrast, we may prefer to observe the United States horizontally. Especially in the past 20 years when we grew up, the weaknesses and shortcomings of the United States have been magnified by the Internet, and the United States has made a lot of mistakes in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Ukraine. In domestic policies, economic crises and democratic crises have also erupted.
At the same time, China has maintained an average annual economic growth of 9%, solved the problem of absolute poverty, maintained a peaceful foreign policy, and maintained a stable social environment. In the eyes of a new generation of scholars in China, the United States is not qualified to be China's teacher. As I wrote in the New York Times in August, the Chinese no longer look up to America.
听说你现在俄罗斯,你怎么样看待目前的形势?世界变得更危险了吗?
I heard that you are now in Russia. How do you view the current situation? Has the world become more dangerous?
王文:是的,我在俄罗斯呆了近两个月,去了20个俄罗斯城市。我觉得,美国人对俄罗斯产生巨大的误判。第一,俄罗斯社会非常稳定,民众支持普京。第二,俄罗斯经济有韧性,能够承受西方的制裁。美国不能奢望能够借乌克兰危机而打垮俄罗斯,相反,美国正在刺激俄罗斯做出更危险的动作。当务之急,不是给乌克兰更多的武器,而是鼓励乌克兰与俄罗斯坐下来谈判。谈判更有利于问题的解决,更会减少没有必要的死亡,更有利于世界。这是我想真心劝诫美国政府的建议。
Wang Wen: Yes, I stayed in Russia for nearly two months and visited 20 Russian cities. I think Americans have made a huge miscalculation of Russia. First, Russian society is very stable, and the people support Putin. Second, the Russian economy is resilient and can withstand Western sanctions. The United States cannot expect to defeat Russia by taking advantage of the crisis in Ukraine.
On the contrary, the United States is stimulating Russia to take more dangerous actions. The top priority is not to give Ukraine more weapons, but to encourage Ukraine and Russia to sit down and negotiate. Negotiations are more conducive to solving problems, reducing unnecessary deaths and benefiting the world. This is a proposal that I would like to sincerely exhort the US government.
“If you had a few minutes in private with President Biden, what is the single most important thing you would tell him to improve relations between the U.S. and China?”
如果他有时间,我非常有兴趣与他聊一聊。事实上,我与特朗普握过手,邀请过吉米卡特总统来到人民大学演讲,还当面问过已故的布什总统问题。
“I understand you are now in Russia, tell us how you find the mood of the Russian people? Are they still solidly behind President Putin?”