Source: Pearls and Irritations Published: 2024-08-07

Western media analysts often fail to grasp the significance of the reforms initiated at the Third Plenary Session of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in Beijing (CPC), which recently concluded in Beijing.

The CPC typically holds six plenary sessions during each five-year term of its Central Committee, and the third is particularly important as major policy directions and reforms are often introduced.

In 1978, the Third Plenary Session of the 11th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China marked the beginning of China’s reform and opening-up, a policy introduced by Deng Xiaoping that transformed China from one of the world’s poorest countries into the second-largest economy.

In 2013 the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee further deepened these reforms, ensuring China’s continued economic growth and setting the stage for it to one day become the world’s largest economy.

On July 18, 2024, the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee concluded with a proposal for “further comprehensive deepening of reform,” a continuation of China’s pragmatic approach to development that Western analysts often underestimate.

Long-term reform is a challenge. In Western democracies, political candidates campaign on promises of change, but after one or two terms, little may actually change.

Even if reforms are implemented, there is no guarantee that a successor won’t reverse them. China, however, approaches reform as a relay race, with each generation of leaders passing the baton to the next.

When Xi Jinping took over in 2012, China was already the world’s second-largest economy, but significant challenges remained.

Over the past 12 years China has tackled six major struggles ‒ poverty, isolation, pollution, corruption, hegemony and crises ‒ issues often discussed in Chinese political discourse but seldom noticed by Western media.

1. Anti-Poverty

By the end of 2020 China announced the eradication of extreme poverty, achieving this milestone a decade ahead of the United Nations’ 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. From 2012 to 2020, nearly 99 million people were lifted out of extreme poverty in what is considered one of the most efficient poverty alleviation campaigns in global history.

2. Anti-Isolation

In response to high-tech blockades and trade restrictions imposed by the United States, China has focused on achieving technological independence.

Between 2012 and 2023, China’s scientific research funding as a percentage of national income increased from 1.92 percent to 2.64 percent, making it the global leader in research investment. The number of high-tech enterprises rose from 45,000 to 465,000 and the chip self-sufficiency rate increased from 15 percent to over 40 percent.

3. Anti-Pollution

China is leading the world’s largest emissions reduction initiative.

From 2012 to 2023, China’s energy consumption per unit of GDP dropped by 26.8 percent and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP fell by more than 35 percent.

The country’s new energy vehicle production and sales are set to surpass 10 million units in 2024, accounting for about 60 percent of the global total. China’s photovoltaic industry is also a global leader, with output and production capacity accounting for more than 80 percent of the world’s total.

4. Anti-Corruption

Tackling corruption is crucial for sustainable development. Between 2012 and 2022, China’s anti-corruption campaign saw 4.573 million officials and corrupt elements investigated and punished, with more than 11,946 fugitives brought to justice.

5. Anti-Hegemony

China has consistently opposed hegemonic behaviour, pledging never to use nuclear weapons first and adhering to peaceful development as enshrined in its constitution.

China has proposed the Belt and Road initiative, committed to equal cooperation with countries around the world and promoted Iran-Saudi reconciliation and reconciliation between factions within Palestine.

6. Anti-Crisis

Over the past 12 years, China has introduced and revised more than 20 laws related to national security, addressed real estate bubbles and cracked down on transnational fraud and cybercrime.

Of course progress in these six struggles cannot conceal the fact that there are still problems. These are precisely the targets for the next phase of national development.

Just as the reforms of Deng Xiaoping’s era left issues for future leaders to address, the reforms of the past 12 years have set the groundwork for further comprehensive deepening. In 2024 the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee passed a 22,000-word key document which mentions “reform” 144 times and outlines more than 300 reforms to be implemented over the next five years.

This reflects China’s unwavering commitment to reform and opening-up over the past 45 years.

My institution, the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, launched the report Decisive Battle: China’s Comprehensive Deepening of Reform and High-level Opening-up in the New Era and Visions for 2029 and 2035. This report provides insights into China’s trajectory over the next five years and beyond, offering data worthy of global attention.

I’d like to outline China’s goals for 2029 and give international media a clearer perspective on China’s future.

By 2029, more than 40 percent of the world’s top 500 companies will be Chinese and China’s GDP is expected to surpass 85 percent of the United States, potentially becoming the world’s largest economy by 2035.

Average life expectancy in China will have surpassed 80 years old while basic medical and pension coverage will exceed 95 percent.
In 2029 there will be more than 100 countries who share mutual visa exemption, unilateral visa exemption and visa on arrival with China. There will be more than 120 by 2035.

More than one-third of the country’s population ‒ over 400 million people – will have traveled abroad.

Environmentally, China will achieve its carbon peak ahead of schedule, leading global efforts in emission reductions.

In terms of security, China will become one of the countries with the highest comprehensive security in the world.

With plans for Chinese astronauts to land on the moon. China will produce 200 domestic large aircraft a year and five new overseas support bases will be added.

More importantly by 2029, the national governance capacity and governance system of the Communist Party of China will take another big step forward. A China will emerge that has basically achieved socialist modernisation.