Source: CCTV.com Published: 2024-03-18

Editor's note: As global economic landscapes continue to shift and transform, China finds itself under the scrutiny of Western reports that often portray a less-than-rosy picture of its economic development. However, a deeper analysis of recent reports suggests a more nuanced and optimistic outlook for China's economy in 2024. CCTV.com interviews with renowned Chinese and foreign experts Abhishek G Bhaya, John Ross and Suvam Pal for the special series 'Navigating economic challenges: A bright outlook for China in 2024,' to present a compelling narrative of China's economic progress and prosperity. Below is the first episode by Abhishek G Bhaya, a Beijing-based journalist, international affairs commentator and a specialist in China-related topics.

It is worth noting that Western media and politicians have consistently placed bets on China's collapse for over two decades. However, it seems they've been consistently losing in this high-stakes guessing game. The Chinese economy has not only weathered global economic storms but has also emerged stronger and more resilient, proving wrong the forecasts of a collapse.

Contrary to prevailing Western perceptions, the Chinese economy is poised for a steady recovery in 2024, supported by well-calibrated monetary, financial, and fiscal policies. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reinforced confidence in China's economic outlook by revising its growth forecast to 4.6% for 2024. This upward revision reflects China's fiscal measures, resilience, and potential for additional reforms, such as property sector reforms. Moreover, gradual decreases in global inflation indicate a favorable macroeconomic environment for sustained growth.

Similarly, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projects a moderate rebound for China's economy in 2024, with growth rates surpassing those of the United States and the euro area. OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann emphasizes the importance of prudent monetary policies and collaborative efforts to address shared challenges, including climate change. China's commitment to sustainable growth aligns with global imperatives, underscoring its role as a responsible global stakeholder.

Meanwhile, the 2023 Annual Consultation Report on China published by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) highlights the soundness of China's banking sector and anticipates improvements in credit conditions. Amro forecasts China's GDP growth at 5.3% in 2024, driven primarily by consumption and supported by investments in infrastructure, high-tech manufacturing, and services. This growth trajectory reflects China's resilience amidst domestic and external uncertainties, positioning it as a key driver of global economic stability.

Amidst these positive indicators, China faces risks and challenges, including financial strains on local governments and geopolitical tensions. However, proactive policy responses, such as targeted fiscal support and measures to safeguard financial sector stability, mitigate these risks and reinforce China's economic resilience.