China’s economy can grow by up to 5% until 2030: ex-finance vice-minister Zhu

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China’s economy can grow by up to 5% until 2030: ex-finance vice-minister Zhu

2025-10-19

China’s economy can grow by up to 5% until 2030: ex-finance vice-minister Zhu

Comments from Zhu Guangyao come as party Central Committee prepares for fourth plenum from Monday to finalise crucial 2026-2030 blueprint

Source: South China Morning Post

By Carol Yang

Update: Oct 19, 2025, 8:00 PM


China can sustain annual growth of 4.5 to 5 per cent over its next five-year plan period, former finance vice-minister Zhu Guangyao has said, just days ahead of a key Communist Party conclave to roll out the 2026-2030 blueprint.

“We have full confidence that we will accomplish the economic development goal this year. The economic growth will be around 5 per cent,” Zhu said at a conference in Beijing on Friday, hosted by the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University.

“I personally think that we will keep this 4.5 to 5 per cent growth annually in the next five years and that will build up a solid foundation to achieve the 2035 goal,” he said, referring to the government’s pledge to “basically achieve socialist modernisation” by that year.

Zhu Guangyao addresses the conference at Renmin University in Beijing on Friday. Photo: HandoutZhu Guangyao addresses the conference at Renmin University in Beijing on Friday. Photo: Handout


The comments from Zhu, who served as finance vice-minister between 2010 and 2018, come as China prepares for the fourth plenum of the 20th party congress.

The four-day event from Monday will see hundreds of members of the party’s top policymaking Central Committee gather in Beijing to discuss and endorse proposals for what will be China’s 15th five-year plan.

The meeting comes at a crucial time for the world’s No 2 economy, as it tackles all-out rivalry with the United States.

The full five-year plan, to be finalised in March during the annual national legislative session, will set key targets and priorities for a wide range of sectors.

Beijing has sought to emphasise the resilience of the national economy despite geopolitical headwinds and pressure from the US.

In his remarks on Friday, Zhu noted that artificial intelligence, robotics and related industries would support China’s high-quality development over the next five years.

He acknowledged that US export controls on advanced semiconductors had limited China’s computing capabilities, but expressed confidence in China’s AI prospects, citing its extensive application scenarios and robust electricity generation capacity.

The United States has leveraged hi-tech chip exports in its protracted trade dispute with China.

Earlier this month, Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang said the company’s position in China had dropped from 95 per cent of the advanced chip market to zero, as US export restrictions meant the American semiconductor giant was not allowed to sell its advanced products to Chinese firms.

China generated over 10,000 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2024, more than the combined output of the US, European Union and India, the next three largest producers, according to data from energy think tank Ember.

Zhu also highlighted China’s commitment to carbon reduction and its determination to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030.

Last month, President Xi Jinping announced that China aimed to cut its emissions by 7 to 10 per cent by 2035.

Analysts said it was a cautious target that left room for flexibility on future economic policy.

image.pngXi pledges to cut China’s climate emissions by up to 10%

In a video address to United Nations climate talks on September 24, Xi also pledged to increase the share of energy produced by non-fossil fuels to more than 30 per cent, install 3,600 gigawatts of wind and solar power capacity, and develop the national emissions trading market.

Meanwhile, the US is rolling back on its commitments, with President Donald Trump calling climate change a “con job”, and belittling renewable energy and the concept of climate change.

Clean power generation, led by solar and wind, met 84 per cent of China’s electricity demand growth in 2024. Renewable output reduced fossil fuel generation by 2 per cent in the first half of this year, according to a report on China’s energy transition released by Ember in September.

Key Words: Mingde, Economy, China