Ding Gang: China-US Trade: Washington’s imagined scenario vs reality

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Ding Gang: China-US Trade: Washington’s imagined scenario vs reality

2025-02-06

Source: Global Times   Published: 2025-01-22


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By Ding Gang


US President Donald Trump's inauguration has recently become a focal point for the media. My attention was drawn to a group photograph featuring some American business leaders gathered at the ceremony, including Elon Musk from Tesla, Tim Cook from Apple, Jeff Bezos from Amazon and Mark Zuckerberg from Meta. 

These names and faces are not strange to the Chinese people, as their companies have extensive operations in China, and their success is closely tied to China's development.

Thus, while reviewing the "America First Trade Policy" document released by the White House after the inauguration, I naturally thought of them and the companies they manage.

Among the executive orders issued is one which calls for an investigation of foreign trade. The document suggests that the US will prioritize ensuring that trade serves its national interests, particularly reviewing the China-US trade agreement to evaluate whether it aligns with American economic interests. 

This means calculating the accounts to see how much the US has earned, or lost, from this trade.

In 2018, the Trump administration initiated a trade war with China, believing that Americans were at a loss, which led to the imposition of extra tariffs.

What if we calculate the accounts based on the businesses run by these entrepreneurs? The logic of the China-US trade story might not align with Washington's imagined scenario.

Elon Musk has achieved great success in the Chinese electric vehicle market through the operation of Shanghai Gigafactory. The Chinese market contributes over 20 percent of Tesla's global revenue and has become one of its largest production and export bases.

Tim Cook is a frequent visitor to China. Apple's production relies on the Chinese supply chains, and Chinese consumers contribute nearly one-fifth of its global revenue.

Although Amazon has exited the local e-commerce market in China, its cross-border e-commerce platform helps countless Chinese sellers sell products globally each year.

Meta's advertising business also relies on support from Chinese companies, as many Chinese cross-border e-commerce and gaming firms enter international markets through its advertising platform.

These companies have made substantial profits in China while bringing technology, jobs and market vitality to China. The deep interconnection of the China-US economies means these companies are both beneficiaries of economic cooperation between the two countries and a bond in their relationship.

However, the turbulence in China-US trade relations over the past few years has weakened this bond. Measures such as the trade war, tariff barriers and technology blockades, although ostensibly aimed at protecting US interests, have also harmed these companies. An important reason is the different ways and perspectives of calculating accounts.

China is one of US' largest trading partners, and the US is also an important export market for China. The trade volume between the two countries reaches hundreds of billions of dollars yearly, covering everything from agricultural products to high-tech goods. 

The stability of China-US economic and trade relations directly impact the interests of businesses and consumers' interests. It has far-reaching effects on the global supply chains and economic growth.

However, the recent tension in China-US trade relations has made this "ballast stone" less stable. The US hopes to reduce its trade deficit with China through tariffs and restrictions while relying on the Chinese market and manufacturing capacity to meet the needs of its businesses and consumers. This results in both sides paying for this contradictory policy. 

During the China-US trade war, US consumers and enterprises bore the burden of increased tariffs, while Chinese export companies also faced pressure. Ultimately, neither side benefited from the situation.

In recent years, China has increased its openness to foreign investment in finance, technology and healthcare sectors, creating more opportunities for US companies to enter the Chinese market.

With the Trump administration proposing to reassess foreign trade policies, China-US trade relations have reached a new juncture. 

In my view, to stabilize this "ballast stone" again, it is crucial to recalculate the US companies' accounts, recognize the win-win potential and strive to expand the space for mutual benefit.