Source: Pearls and Irritations    Published: 2025-04-10

By Wang Wen

Dean and Professor of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China (RDCY)

Will there be a war between China and the US? This question suddenly gained popularity in early April 2024, mainly because, in response to Donald Trump’s so-called “reciprocal tariff” policy, China was the first country to impose strict countermeasures.

Some were worried that the world today is resembling the tariff wars that preceded World War II and that there may be the possibility of military conflict.

Who knows which country will be the next to go to war with the US? Yemen? Iran? Or perhaps a nation in Africa or Latin America? But, in my judgment, it definitely won’t be China.

This is not because China is timid. In fact, resolutely defending China’s national interests and dignity is the core strategy for China’s response to Trump’s tariff policy. China will never yield to the US on any issue.

Over the past eight years, beginning with Trump’s first term, China has increasingly recognised the hegemonic imperialism of the US. China has always hoped for cooperation with the US and never wished to see the US as an enemy. However, if the US wishes to initiate a trade war, tariff war, a tech war or whatever war, China is prepared to retaliate.

China does not rule out co-operation with the US based on mutual respect and “win-win” outcomes. But Beijing understands that co-operation is not simply sought. It is achieved through struggle.

In this round of tariff disputes, China’s countermeasures remain restrained, limited to the realm of trade.

China does not want friction with the US to escalate out of control. An important sign of this is that, aside from statements from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce, no high-ranking Chinese official has publicly spoken out on Trump’s tariffs.

The Chinese leadership maintains respect for the US with resilience and rationality, which reflects the emotional stability and strategic foresight of a global power.

Few people recall that on 17 January 2025, just three days before his inauguration, Trump phoned Chinese President Xi Jinping. Xi pointed out that, as two major countries with different national conditions, there would inevitably be differences between China and the US. The key, he said, is to respect each other’s core interests and major concerns and find a proper solution to the problem. Xi also emphasised that the essence of China-US economic relations is mutual benefit and “win-win” outcomes, and that confrontation and conflict should not be the choice.

In fact, China’s unwillingness to confront the US is based on its confidence in its own absolute strength, which ensures that China would not lose even in confrontation.

In the 1950s, China did not have a fully established navy or air force. During the Korean War, China and the US faced off for three years, with the outcome being the US retreating to the 38th parallel.

Today, China has three aircraft carriers along the western Pacific coast, with more to come in the future. China also possesses Dongfeng-31AG intercontinental ballistic missiles with a range of 12,000 kilometres, sixth-generation aircraft and more than 70% of the world’s drone production capacity. The US has no realistic possibility of defeating China.

Washington is well aware of this. Think-tanks such as the Rand Corporation and Centre for Strategic and International Studies have released reports simulating war scenarios between China and the US over Taiwan, the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula. The results suggest the US cannot win, and may even face a disastrous defeat.

Why doesn’t China take the initiative and go to war with the US when it has such overwhelming strength? The answer is simple: It’s impossible.

Over the past 40 years, China has never actively provoked the US. Whether the issue is Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, the South China Sea, human rights, trade or technology, all friction between China and the US stem from US provocations against China, not the other way around.

In response to the ongoing world’s largest tariff war, China also has the ability to defend its own interests without resorting to military warfare.

China has strong competitiveness in products exported to the US, such as lithium batteries and toys. Seven years ago, Trump’s first wave of tariffs raised the cost of Chinese goods by 20%, but US imports from China continued to grow.

According to data from the US Department of Commerce, between January 2024 and January 2025, exports from the US to China decreased by US$2.18 billion (18%), from US$12.1 billion to US$9.9 billion, while imports from China to the US increased by US$5.85 billion (16.3%), from US$35.8 billion to US$41.6 billion.

In the future, even if tariffs on Chinese products rise to 54%, the US will still need to buy from China. By contrast, American products, such as soybeans or crude oil, have limited competitiveness in China. China’s retaliatory tariffs on the US will force it to find alternative markets, leading to losses for US soybean and crude oil exporters.

At the same time, Chinese factories are also looking for more international production bases. This means Trump’s tariffs have pushed some Chinese companies to expand internationally and operate globally. Previously, Chinese companies had low levels of internationalisation. From this perspective, China is confident in dealing with this new tariff war. Over the long term, Trump’s actions are inadvertently helping Chinese companies to expand their global operations.

Over the past eight years, China has accumulated considerable experience in dealing with the US. The best way to respond to Trump is to focus on improving China’s domestic affairs. Beijing has continuously pushed for domestic reforms, expanded its openness to the outside world, broken through technological blockades and attracted foreign capital, making the country one of the best investment destinations in the world. From these perspectives, time is on China’s side in the competition with the US.

An interesting story is that on the same day Trump launched this global tariff war, a cartoon went viral on Chinese internet platforms. In the cartoon, Trump is depicted wearing the imperial costume of the Qing dynasty, China’s last feudal dynasty, and declaring war on the world in the manner of Empress Dowager Cixi, the last ruler of the Qing Dynasty.

In 1900, Empress Dowager Cixi, still believing in the strength of the Qing Dynasty, declared war on eight of the most powerful countries at the time. A few years later, the Qing Dynasty collapsed.

To Chinese internet users, this cartoon presents a parallel between Trump and Cixi. Both appear to believe their country is still the most powerful and capable of declaring war on the world. In reality, the US is weakening, especially in manufacturing. The true collapse of American hegemony began with Trump.

Thus China does not need to escalate trade tensions with the US. But if the US loses its mind and initiates a war against China, the answer is clear: It would be far worse than the Korean War.