Source: The Washington Post    Published: 2024-11-15

By Katrina Northrop

China is preparing to retaliate against any new tariffs if Donald Trump launches another trade war when he returns to the Oval Office next year, with analysts saying Beijing has had time to develop tools that could prove useful in an economic tit-for-tat.

Trump’s promises to impose further tariffs due to what he says are China’s unfair trading practices could hardly come at a worse time for Beijing: Exports are one of the few bright spots in the world’s second-largest economy, which is already slowing and is unlikely to hit this year’s 5 percent growth target.

China will strike back in the first rounds of another Trump trade war to build negotiating leverage, said Wang Yiwei, an international affairs expert at Beijing’s Renmin University.

“China definitely will retaliate,” he said. “We need to hit to let Trump know, if you do this, the cost may be higher in other ways.”

While Trump’s approach to China policy remains unpredictable, the president-elect vowed to slap 60 percent duties on all Chinese goods, in addition to the measures he imposed in his first term, which were largely kept in place by President Joe Biden.

Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are set to hold their final meeting in Peru on Saturday, after the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Lima, before Biden hands over power to Trump on Jan. 20.

Another trade war will have serious consequences for China, but Beijing won’t be caught unawares in a second Trump era, analysts said.

“This time, I think the government is better prepared,” said Yuan Mei, an international trade expert at Singapore Management University.